A uniquely valuable asset

For her column this week - as Trump bows to Putin on Ukraine - Eileen O'Connor talks to real insiders in Washington: Is 'Krasnov' real? Or is the shadow of 'Krasnov' enough to make the Kremlin smile?

BY EILEEN O’CONNOR

Occam's Razor is defined as the principle that, when given two competing theories, the simpler explanation is generally preferred. That is why the statements of three former KGB agents alleging that President Donald Trump was recruited as an “asset” - codename ‘Krasnov’ - on a trip to Moscow in the 1980’s seems the simplest explanation as to why he is destroying decades of American alliances, shutting down USAID, the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe and threatening tariffs and the (military) takeover of Canada and Greenland - all of which strengthens the Russian President and weakens America.

Journalists and foreign policy experts, particularly Russian experts, are incredulous, with a onetime Moscow correspondent asking me, “What other explanation is there?” But she, like others who were there in the 1980’s up until now, agree that the word “asset” is not the same as an agent who is knowingly recruited.

When then businessman Donald Trump came to Moscow in 1987, he, like others, was excited about the prospects and possibilities of the economic and political reforms promised by Mikhail Gorbachev - a free market in a country with vast natural resources, which was relatively undeveloped compared to other industrialized societies. As with any foreigner, myself included, he was likely surrounded by tour guides or translators who were obliged to report on his every move and feed him specific messages about how misunderstood Russia was and how beneficial a relationship could be. As a businessman in New York, simply writing about his positive impression upon his return and answering questions about the U.S. economy and financing with his new Russian “friends” over the years would be beneficial—an “asset” to the KGB.

Adding to the speculation is Russia’s clear preference for President Trump’s election in 2016, which the Mueller report confirmed. But those who either worked with President Trump in his first administration or have studied him and previous administrations think this time, it is just not that simple.

This past week, I talked to several of them. Some prefer to stay anonymous, others are happy for me to use their name.

Fiona Hill, Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council in President Trump’s first term, observed President Trump’s “fascination” with the Soviet Union’s position as a superpower and Putin’s domination strategy. His business trip to Russia and his business career caused him to “ignore or accept information as he saw fit” from Russia hands, believing his business sense about the country was more accurate than their analysis.

Hill also notes that when it comes to Ukraine and critics of Russia, it becomes personal, as President Trump sees both as driven by people who are “out to get him” as he associates both with investigations or, as he calls them, “witch hunts.”

A former Ambassador under several presidents and other foreign policy experts say that while Trump associates Ukraine with his political enemies, he sees Putin as a “strongman,” he can do business with. “President Trump views foreign policy through a real estate developer lens - all land deals to be made,” said one. They cite Gaza and his comments on the Panama Canal and Greenland as further examples.

But current Trump administration officials told me that all the President “wants is peace and to focus on China—to him, it (the war in Ukraine) is a distraction, and he believes it’s horrible that people are dying” and the country is being completely destroyed. “That’s the positive argument.” The negative is that he is a Russian asset though none of them think that is the case. They all point to the fact that the Mueller investigation went to great lengths to investigate links between Russia and the Trump campaign and would have uncovered any direct association with the President by now.

A few even posit that the simplest explanation for these allegations re-surfacing that the President was recruited as a Russian asset is that it is a KGB-planted story. “It serves the Kremlin's goal to create uncertainty and instability in the U.S., Europe, and even with Trump himself” said one Russian expert.

“President Trump’s biggest liability is his propensity for flattery, which Vladimir Putin is happy to provide when it serves his purpose.” That, in their view, makes the President a uniquely valuable asset, even if an unwitting one.

Eileen O’Connor is a former award-winning White House and foreign correspondent for CNN and ABC in Russia and Ukraine, a crisis management attorney, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Obama administration, and former Senior Vice President of the Rockefeller Foundation, specializing in issues and places where bad things (or "sh#t") happen(s).

With Eileen we are adding ‘a grumpy old lady’ (her own words 😉) to our team, she will be providing our readers with a Washington perspective on Ukraine, and much more. You can also read Eileen here.