(Michael Andersen writes)
According to German academic Andreas Umland, a top expert on Ukraine, Europeans still support Ukraine. But their reasoning is changing: Empathy has been replaced by more rational reasons. Europeans are now more worried about another wave of refugees and international instability than they are about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army invading their nations. Umland says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to understand that Kyiv needs to apply a new line of argument. Some highlights:
Ukraine is no longer daily news on the front pages of Western Europe;
But support for Ukraine is still high among the population;
Europeans are changing their understanding of the war in Ukraine; for them, it is increasingly about the international order and wider European security;
And not least, they worry about another wave of refugees should Ukraine lose;
Although this reasoning could worry Ukrainians, self-interest is actually keeping focus on the war, even in its third year, Umland argues;
Most Europeans do not trust Russia and its president;
Umland is impressed by the support for Ukraine in the Nordic and Baltic countries;
And unimpressed by the policies of Hungary and Slovakia;
He describes the policy of Germany as, at first, dominated by its unrealistic, pacifist view on international security, but over the last couple of years, Umland says, Germany is slowly accepting its responsibility;
Umland gives the Ukrainian government a high score on its informational policy, which has helped to engage the West so far;
But he also concludes that people in Western Europe do not buy into Zelensky’s warnings that Russia - if it wins in Ukraine - would go on and attempt to invade the rest of Europe;
He concludes that Kyiv needs to adjust its rhetoric accordingly, with more focus on the international order and instability if Russia is not stopped.
Andreas Umland: The European debate about Ukraine is changing. Sympathy is being replaced by rationality.