Bla-bla-bla: a guide to ‘negotiations’ to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

The promises of Donald ‘The Art of the Deal’ Trump of ending the war in 24 hours/one week/two weeks/soon - take your pick – are total nonsense, have lead and will lead nowhere. Here is why.

BY MICHAEL ANDERSEN

So, yet another round of phone calls in order to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Or as we really should stick to calling it – the Russian invasion and slaughter of Ukraine. This is not just semantics - calling it by its rightful name would remind us why phone calls, talks or negotiations are very unlikely to get us anywhere.

So, like many other observers, analysts (some even like to call themselves ‘experts’), I started typing away, cleverly analyzing. And then I asked myself – why was I doing this? Apart from running up enormous phone bills - they probably no longer use Signal 😉 - the calls between U.S. President Trump and Russian dictator Putin, and between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky and the leaders of the biggest European countries, resulted in - nothing. Again. Which was utterly predictable. So, if to reflect reality, our headlines should really read like this, not terribly sexy, but true:

‘Calls between U.S., Russia and Ukrainian Presidents lead to nothing. Again. As expected. Again.’

I was, by the way, very glad to see that one of the people whose opinion I value most when it comes to this conflict, Olga Lautman, agrees with me: there is little reason to take these ‘talks’ seriously. It is just empty blabber. And, as Olga correctly points out, the media should stop “turning these useless calls and meets into a spectacle” - and instead spend their time on something better (the ones who can.)

So, instead, I decided to save myself and YOU a lot of time and boredom. Here is a guide – a filter, if you will - that you can apply to all future ‘talks’ and ‘negotiations’ about ending Putin’s war in Ukraine. Because as long as these three presidents are in power, nothing is likely to change.

This quick guide is based on me studying the Soviet Union/Russia for 40 years, and following Putin for 30 years (I first met him in the early 1990s, when he was still just a bitter nobody, long before he became a bitter dictator), as well as me covering and living in Ukraine for the better part of 25 years, as for Trump – well… 😉

THE GUIDE to talks and calls and ‘negotiations’ on Putin’s war in Ukraine (facts and factors to keep in mind)

1) The U.S. President is clueless about the conflict and what Putin calls the “root causes”. He has demonstrated that over and over.

2) The U.S. President really doesn’t care that much about the conflict – for example, even to get basic facts and numbers correct (who started the war, how many people have died, etc). Trump simply wants to end the war at any cost (to Ukraine), in order to avoid that ‘the buck stops’ at his desk (not that he would get that reference).

3) The Russian dictator’s goal is to avoid that Ukraine moves towards Europe and modern civilization, democracy, free media, and fight corruption and theft. Not necessarily because he wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, but more because democracy in Ukraine would demonstrate to the people he himself rules and owns that it is possible to live in another, more civilized manner. He can’t have that, of course.

That is the real “root cause” of this war. (Of course, the Russian dictator claims that the reasons for his invasion are ‘Nazis running Ukraine’, ‘genocide against Russian speakers’ etc, etc – for anybody who has a clue about Ukraine, this is obviously silly nonsense.)

4) The Ukrainian President’s main goal is that Ukraine survives. And he knows that he cannot give in to Putin’s demands – that would turn Ukraine into a weak, amputated, demilitarized, neutral, poor country – in effect, meaning the end of Ukraine. Or ‘at best’, it would keep Ukraine forever in the limbo the country is in right now, trying its damnest simply to survive. Either option would make Putin smile.

5) Ukraine has no real perspective of winning the war militarily, of driving the Russians out of Ukraine. At least not in the next couple of years. Maybe there could be a chance of kicking the Russians out - down the line, experts on weapons production say, if the Europeans could get their act together – politically, financially, militarily and when it comes to producing military equipment for Ukraine. But that is a big if, and nothing that the Ukrainian leader can ‘sell’ at home at the moment.

A few months ago, Zelensky did try to talk up a European army – but was shot down by the leaders of all major European powers almost before he had ended his speech.

6) The Ukrainian people have behaved more bravely and stubbornly than any of the rest of us Europeans ever would. But even Ukrainians are human: Day by day, bomb by bomb, death by death, sweet empty word by sweet empty word from Western Europe, insult by insult from Trump and Vance - the Ukrainians are getting still more tired.

7) Putin is aware of all this – points 1 to 6. So why on earth would he negotiate about anything? As we have seen for three years, the Russian dictator simply keeps repeating the same demands over and over again.

8) Because we let him. Because we have not forced him to change his mind or policies. Because our so-called ‘sanctions’ are a joke.

9) I repeat – Trump doesn’t have a clue.

10) CONCLUSION: nothing will change till one of these facts/factors change. But it is difficult to see how they would. Trump is a lost cause. And if Zelensky changes his policies, there will be no Ukraine. So – the only two factors that can change are the goals and policies of Putin and Western Europe. Over to you, Bruxelles.

P.S.: ‘Two grumpy Old Men on Ukraine’ are looking into making nice t-shirts with this guide for understanding the ‘negotiations’ printed on them, in blue and yellow colors, of course. We will keep you updated😉