BREAKING NEWS😉: Somebody leaked the NATO communique on Ukraine to me. It will say…. nothing.
The world - international security - has changed beyond recognition in the last decade. But the policies of NATO vis-à-vis Ukraine stay the same. Go figure.
BY MICHAEL ANDERSEN
Yesterday, somebody leaked to me the NATO communique that will be published later today, here it is:
Okay, okay – disclaimer: This is the NATO communique from April 2008, with my scribblings to, let’s call it, ‘update’ it 😉
But, in fact, the NATO officials - led by Secretary General Mark Rutte - probably already have the tipex out in The Hague, reusing the NATO commmunique from 2008, crossing Georgia out, adding a few new, empty comments. Because the NATO statement from today will sound promising for Ukraine on paper - of course - but will, in reality, be utterly devoid of content. Predictable, inconsequential politico-diplomatic blabber of the worst kind.
While Ukrainians are being killed in their bed. Every day. More and more, as Russia intensifies its assault.
Expect the following sentences to feature prominently when Rutte and co go out spinning to the media:
“Inevitably”, as in “Ukraine’s membership of NATO is inevitable”
“We are ending an important signal”
”Russia does not have a veto over NATO affairs”.
The important bit to get here is that these are just words: there is nothing “inevitable” about Ukrainian membership, not more than there was 17 years ago when we first promised it. No, a NATO statement on a piece of paper is not “an important signal”. And yes, it does actually seem that Russia has a veto over NATO affairs.
In fact, there is a rumor that NATO - worried about stepping on the toes of the Russian dictator - will erase the sentence about (potential, potential, potential) Ukrainian membership. Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth don’t want it included.
The fact is that today, NATO will be telling Ukraine exactly the same as we told Ukraine in 2008. Sure, sure, as Mark Rutte has been keen to stress - otherwise, there would be no point in having him in the job - the communique will include some strong, strong…. language. And as we know, if there is one thing that Putin really fears, it’s language.
The only tiny little thing is that the world has changed a tiny, little, incy-wincy bit since 2008, hasn’t it?
One Russian invasion of Georgia (August 2008, Russia is occupying 20% of Georgia)
Two Russian invasions of Ukraine (2014 and 2022, Russia is still occupying 20% of Ukraine)
Countless hybrid attacks and direct military threats and provocation against other former Soviet republics, now independent states.
It is no longer the same world as it was in 2008. Very far from it, in fact. But there is one steady thing in this turbulent world of ours: NATO’s empty promises when it comes to Ukraine. Maybe it is time to be honest, after all the fancy conferences, statements and spins, champagne and prawn sandwiches receptions, to say it out loud: The NATO countries do not have a policy on Ukraine, never mind a plan.
The big dog, the U.S., is dead set against Ukrainian NATO membership. Under Trump, under Biden, under Obama, makes no odds. Kamala Harris was also less than lukewarm on the idea, have no illusions.
Faced with that – a loud U.S. no! - major European powers have a free ride. They can pretend that they disagree with Washington, smile and look oh-so-pro-Ukrainian. As a former high-ranking NATO official said to me this morning: “France, Germany and the UK would shit their pants if Washington by some miracle changed its mind. And so would several of the smaller NATO countries who at the moment are making themselves look very progressive by making political hay by regularly taking the train to Kyiv and pretending that they are supporting NATO membership for Ukraine. The key word being pretending.”
‘But should Ukraine really become a member of NATO?’ I hear you ask. I don’t know. But I do know that the Ukrainians deserve to be talked to like adults, like partners, to be told the truth: not a snowman’s chance in hell of that happening. Although, Ukrainians have a rather well-developed BS detector, so I guess they know by now.
I wish we could elect Ukraine into nato because I believe the majority of Americans want it in to help protect the rest of Europe. It’s already doing the work and should get the reward. Besides facing nato Russia would back off.
Ukraine has been defending Europe against Russia for over 3 years, Members have supported Ukraine to a great extent, except USA under Biden and Trump though each for different reasons. If Ukraine joins NATO while fighting Russia, these countries are automatically at war with Ukraine. My understanding is that Putin will test the sincerity of the members to article 5 in the near future. I suspect we already know the answer. Europe does not have its act together yet so is afraid of a conventional war with Russia. In the meantime, "Ukrainians continue to be killed in their beds" as Putin steps up his destruction of the people, language and culture of Ukraine. I am so sad for my adopted country.