No Lukashenko = no Russian invasion of Ukraine: The path to peace - removing dictators.

In this guest essay, Belarus' former deputy foreign minister Andrei Sannikov argues that the role of Belarus in Russia's war in Ukraine is dangerously underestimated.

BY ANDREI SANNIKOV

Global politics is accelerating at a dizzying pace - unpredictable, unsettling, and increasingly dangerous. Was this inevitable? Absolutely.

The most significant geopolitical shifts are unfolding in Europe, where Belarus plays a crucial yet often overlooked role. While politicians across Europe, the Americas, and the former Soviet sphere undoubtedly influence world affairs, their actions - no matter how reckless or extreme - are not the primary forces shaping international security.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, while a positive development, was widely misunderstood by the West. The democratic world succumbed to the "Fukuyama syndrome," assuming that the ideological battle between totalitarianism and democracy had ended with the fall of the USSR. Believing there was no turning back, the West eagerly expanded into the newly opened markets beyond the "Iron Curtain," convinced that the independent states emerging from the Soviet empire would inevitably join the democratic world.

This misplaced optimism led to a dangerous neglect of the deep-seated problems within these newly independent states, further dividing Europe. The Baltic and Eastern European nations that had spent less time under Kremlin rule rushed to reintegrate with Europe, successfully joining the EU and NATO. Meanwhile, the former Soviet republics had little choice but to maintain ties with Russia which still controlled many of their economic and political lifelines. These nations, unable to exercise true geopolitical independence, remained entangled in a web of dependency on Moscow.

By agreeing to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and subordinating themselves to Russian influence, the European republics of the former USSR, in fact, facilitated a relatively smooth transition for Central European countries, moving from the political East to the political West. While the "luckier" nations secured their futures through EU and NATO integration, the less fortunate ones witnessed the resurgence of Russian imperialism, evolving into a dictatorship-driven expansionist force.

While Europe built the European Union—a remarkable achievement in democracy and cooperation - the remaining post-Soviet nations, with a few exceptions, descended into authoritarianism. This led to the formation of a Russia-dominated bloc of dictators, criminals, and oligarchs masquerading as legitimate leaders.

The Lukashenko factor in Russia’s imperial revival

The revival of authoritarianism in the European part of the former Soviet Union began in Belarus with Alexander Lukashenko’s rise to power in 1994. Desperate for re-election, then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin urged Lukashenko to create the so-called "Union State," appealing to Russia’s pro-communist electorate. In return for this “favor,” Yeltsin supported a coup in Belarus in 1996, disguised as a “referendum,” which allowed Lukashenko to dismantle the constitution and establish his brutal dictatorship

.Vladimir Putin, who initially portrayed himself as a moderate liberal leader, closely studied Lukashenko’s methods, eventually adopting and refining them. By his second term, Putin had abandoned his early liberal façade, embracing the Belarusian model of changing the Constitution and ruthlessly suppressing any dissent.

In any geopolitical crisis, there is always a key country that, while not necessarily the dominant force, plays a decisive role in shaping regional dynamics. Austria’s annexation by Nazi Germany in 1938 exemplifies this. The Anschluss set off a chain reaction that led to the Munich Agreement (rightfully called a betrayal) and, ultimately, World War II. Today, as Russia wages a full-scale war against Ukraine, Belarus under Lukashenko holds a similarly crucial position—one that is dangerously underestimated.

Why Belarus matters strategically

Belarus occupies a geostrategic position of immense significance due to two critical regions: the Smolensk Gate and the Suwalki Gap.

The Smolensk Gate - a key corridor between the Western Dvina and Dnieper Rivers—has long been a major route for trade and military movements between East and West. It is vital not only to Russia but also to China, the world’s second-largest economy. For China, Belarus is important due to its proximity to EU markets. Historically, Russia has used this corridor to launch invasions into Europe, and today, it remains a critical route for Moscow’s military ambitions. The Smolensk Gate was the gateway through which Russia invaded Ukraine, using Belarusian territory in an attempt to seize Kyiv.

The Suwalki Gap - situated between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, became a flashpoint after the collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. This narrow strip of land is the only link connecting Poland, Central Europe, and the Baltic states. In the event of a Russian invasion, capturing the Suwalki Gap would isolate Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the rest of NATO. This vulnerability has led experts to call it "NATO’s Achilles’ heel."

During periods of heightened tensions between Russia and the West, Belarus becomes a pivotal geopolitical factor—capable of either escalating conflict, if neglected, or preventing war, if paid proper attention.

Dictatorship means war

Dictatorships inevitably lead to war—whether against their own people or, as seen in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, against neighboring nations. The most effective way to prevent war is to dismantle authoritarian regimes.

In the case of Belarus, despite decades of human rights abuses and political assassinations, Lukashenko was allowed to rule unchallenged for nearly 30 years. Western sanctions were weak and short-lived, barely affecting his grip on power. Even in 2020, when the Belarusian people revolted against his rule, the West's response was slow and ineffective. The regime was given time to crush the uprising, ensuring Lukashenko's survival.

By violently suppressing the people and clinging to power, Lukashenko became Putin’s key enabler in the war against Ukraine.

Moreover, the invasion was openly prepared during large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercises held in Belarus starting from 2009. Yet the West failed to see—or chose to ignore - the warning signs.

It must be recognized that without Lukashenko, the Kremlin would not have had the strategic foothold necessary to launch and sustain its war against Ukraine. In other words, had the Belarusian revolution of 2020 succeeded, there would be no war in Europe today.

The path to peace: Removing dictators

Stopping dictators is the surest way to stop war—any war. The world’s most urgent challenge is reversing the decline of democracy.

In the case of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Lukashenko provides Belarus as a launchpad for Putin’s aggression. A free and democratic Belarus, reintegrated with Europe, would be a powerful deterrent against Russian expansionism.

Even if an uneasy peace is brokered today, as long as Lukashenko remains in power, Putin will always have the ability to restart the war and escalate his assault on Europe.

The time to act is now. The world cannot afford to repeat past mistakes. If dictatorships are allowed to persist, war will remain inevitable. A democratic Belarus is not just a moral imperative—it is a strategic necessity for European and global security.

Summing up

Dictatorships are the root cause of war: Authoritarian regimes, by their very nature, rely on suppression, aggression, and expansionism to maintain power. History has shown that dictators, whether Lukashenko in Belarus or Putin in Russia, inevitably resort to violence—first against their own people, then against neighboring nations. The most effective way to prevent war is not just to deter aggression but to actively dismantle dictatorial rule.

Belarus holds the key to European security: Belarus is not merely a passive satellite of Russia—it is a critical geopolitical player. Its strategic position, controlling key corridors like the Smolensk Gate and Suwałki Gap, makes it central to both Russian military operations and European security. A free and democratic Belarus would eliminate a major launching ground for Russian aggression and significantly weaken Putin’s war efforts.

The West’s Misjudgment and failure to act strengthens authoritarianism: The failure of the democratic world to recognize and counter authoritarian threats in a timely manner has led to repeated crises. Without proactive engagement—supporting democracy movements and taking decisive action against dictators—wars like the one in Ukraine will continue to erupt, threatening global stability.

Andrei Sannikov was once Belarus’ deputy foreign minister, but for the last almost 30 years, he has been trying to topple the Belarus dictator, as one of the leaders of the Belarus’ opposition.