RANT: Putin was never going to come to Istanbul. Of course not.

If you were Putin, would you have shown up in Istanbul? 'Just' because Ukraine, Europe and cheerleading pundits are trying to goat you to? The likely loser: Ukraine. Again.

(An assortment of gung-ho headlines about the now derailed Summit in Istanbul.)

BY MICHAEL ANDERSEN

As a pro-Ukrainian, I am angry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must be furious. Ukrainians must feel humiliated. By Putin. And by their western partners.

It was Theodore Roosevelt - U.S. President 1901-09 - who advised political leaders to “speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” This gave birth to the expression and foreign policy approach of ‘the carrot and the stick’: the ‘carrot; referring to promising and giving rewards in exchange for cooperation - and the ‘stick’ referring to the threat of punishment in response to noncompliance with norms or agreements.

Roosevelt advised having “intelligent forethought” to identify the carrot, and “the means of decisive action” if and when force would be needed. In the game we have witnessed this past week about a potential Russian-Ukrainian peace summit in Istanbul, the West brought neither forethought, intelligence nor decisive action. And as a result, Ukraine has once again been hung out to dry.

We wanted Putin to show up and negotiate directly with Zelensky (and with Trump). That was never going to happen. Because we had no carrot to offer him, nor any stick to force him.

That has been the case for three years - so why on earth anybody in their right mind would think that we had the Russian dictator backed into a corner etc - see silly headlines ad libitum above and everywhere - is beyond me. That this summit was derailed was entirely predictable.

Using the carrot? Nope, because we can not reward or persuade Putin.

Question: Why s/would Putin have shown up in Istanbul to negotiate?

Answer: I wouldn’t if I were him. He had nothing to gain from it.

Putin has explained to us - sometimes through his interpreter, one J.D. Vance - what he wants: He wants the 20% of Ukraine he presently occupies, international recognition of Crimea and the four most-eastern regions of Ukraine as Russian, a demilitarized and neutral Ukraine (meaning no NATO - ever), and much, much more.

The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has made it abundantly clear that he politically will not, and indeed legally cannot, agree to any of Putin’s terms. (The Ukrainian constitution does not give the president power to cede Ukrainian territory.)

In other words, the parties are, at this point, very, very far from each other. There is, as a UK diplomatic source familiar with the debate among European leaders said to me last night: “There is simply nothing to talk about, there is nowhere to even start, they have nothing to say to each other.”

‘I already have what I want most of all,’ I imagine Putin telling himself right now - a Ukraine in disarray, a Ukraine that he has forced to concentrate on its physical survival instead of further developing its democracy, as it was doing from the time of the revolution in 2014 till Russia invaded in February 2022.

I am not clever enough to tell you how long the Russian economy and military can sustain Putin’s war in Ukraine (and I would strongly suggest that you add a large amount of salt to any analysis that pretends to know). But I think that it is fair to say that militarily the war is not going well for Ukraine; Not because Ukraine will collapse militarily tomorrow, not because the Ukrainians haven’t been incredibly brave and inventive in their warfare - but because Russia seemingly seemingly can keep throwing men into the meat grinder. It is one of the ‘advantages’ of being a dictator. And because Russia, despite our sanctions, seems to be perfectly able to keep producing and buying weapons.

The important thing here is that for the moment - for the moment - Putin clearly believes that he, his economy and military will win the day, eventually, and that he therefore is in no particular hurry to sit down and negotiate.

Putin, of course, is only being reinforced and enabled in this by the U.S. President who so far wholeheartedly has supported the Russian demands on Ukraine, does all he can to weaken NATO and recently told the Ukrainians in no uncertain terms that “Crimea will stay with Russia.” And that Zelensky’resistance to giving away Ukrainian lands is “harmful to peace talks.”

Many Europeans were mightily upset by Trump’s words, but it should be noted that French President Macron - who over the past few months has been keen to show himself as Ukraine’s protector number one - on Tuesday said something very similar, the Frenchman only using more a sophisticated vocab than his unsophisticated U.S. counterpart:

“We must help Ukraine defend itself but we do not want to unleash a Third World War,” and “even the Ukrainians have the clear-sightedness to say they do not have the capacity to retake everything that has been taken since 2014.”

Like it or not, fair or not, this is the direction this is taking; all our proud and principled talk about ‘Ukraine’s territorial integrity’ is slowly but certainly turning out to be just that - talk. The U.S. President is rapidly normalizing relations with the Kremlin regime, including excusing and downplaying the invasion and terror bombing of Ukraine, talking about bringing back Russia into the G7 (to again become G8).

So, why on earth would Putin show up for talks in Istanbul? He is likely quite happy with the way things are going internationally, and is simply waiting for the realities on the battlefield to be reflected more directly in our actual policies.

Using the stick? Nope, because we can not force Putin.

Question: How can we make Putin show up and negotiate a ceasefire or peace?

Answer: Obviously, we couldn’t. Also, we are not even really trying to make him.

The clue is in the name, the title. The so-called legacy media - sticking to the AP-style book and journalism etiquette - still call Putin the “Russian President.” Maybe starting to employ a real description of the man would be a good first step, reminding ourselves why Putin was never likely to a) come to Istanbul, nor b) give up anything.

Because Putin is not a president. He is a dictator, meaning that he can do whatever he wants, nobody will risk their neck (literally) and criticize him (at home). And he really can’t care less about what the Ukrainian President and his new best mates from Europe say about him.

It seems that our politicians and ‘experts’ still believe that we can somehow ‘shame’ Putin to end the invasion, or at least to come to the negotiating table. Like with a ‘normal politician’.

I would have thought that Putin invading Ukraine unprovoked - which we all could follow ‘live’ online and on tv - and still, three years later, every night killing Ukrainians in their beds, would have been a clue - that we can’t.

But, European leaders assured the Ukrainians - if Putin does not come to Istanbul and negotiate a ceasefire or peace, we will slab more sanctions on Russia and its leaders.

And they did. This week, the EU will finalize yet another sanctions package against Russia. It will be package number 17. I think that says all about the impact of our sanctions so far - that we are on package number 17.

‘Let’s put pressure on Putin’, the EU press release about sanctions state. Aha. For the 17th time.

The loser: Ukraine. Again.

By Wednesday night it was clear that Putin would not be showing up in Istanbul on Thursday. He would not even send his lapdog, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, but only a team of bureaucrats and advisors, the highest ranking a deputy defense minister.

President Trump - who had been signaling that he might come to the meeting in Istanbul if the Russian leader showed - immediately canceled his participation. The U.S. is sending Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s close personal friend and envoy to the Kremlin.

Let’s just for a second jump back to the beginning:

The meeting in Istanbul came about when the leaders of Germany, France, Poland and the UK together with Zelensky, and Trump (in theory), last Saturday issued a challenge to the Russian dictator: agree to a ceasefire or get ready for “massive sanctions”.

Putin ignored the ceasefire ultimatum - not for the first time - and instead he proposed “direct talks between Russia and Ukraine”, “without preconditions.”

At first, the Europeans and Ukraine responded curtly that there could be no talks before a ceasefire was agreed. In other words, Putin’s delaying tactics seemed to have backfired. But not for the first time, Putin was saved by the U.S. President, who on his social media blasted a message to Zelensky:

“President Putin of Russia doesn't want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”

“Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”

As the Guardian wrote: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy had no choice but to accept Vladimir Putin’s invitation to talks in Istanbul on Thursday for fear of offending Trump….”

The public relations-savvy Ukrainian leader - now having been ordered to meet Putin - still tried to turn this around to his own and Ukraine’s advantage: Zelensky now announced that he himself would come to Istanbul on Thursday May 15 - in person - and that he expected the Russian president to show up as well.

“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy,” Zelensky said in a post on X.

“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelensky added.

Since then, it has all been about ‘will-he-won’t-he?’ He being Putin, of course. All the while, Russia has ignored all talk about a ceasefire, and has kept killing Ukrainians in their beds every night - ‘as usual.’

All week, Volodymyr Zelensky has been making a big song and dance about only coming to Istanbul if Putin also showed. Saving face, equal level, dignity and all that.

Quite understandably, one would say.

‘Nope, Volodymyr, that won’t work,’ according to the Washington Post, Zelensky was told by his western partners. Both the U.S. and the Europeans insisted that he - under all circumstances - Putin or no Putin - should make an appearance in Istanbul.

“Zelensky didn't see the point in going at all (if Putin is not),” one Ukrainian diplomat told the paper, but “European and U.S. officials, including Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, reportedly convinced Zelensky that attending the peace talks would reflect positively on Kyiv.”

In this way, Ukraine’s allies are, in effect, throwing Zelensky under the bus: Putin is not coming to Istanbul. Now either Zelensky shows up and is humiliated, meeting with Putin’s bureaucrat-minnows - or he doesn’t show, going against the wishes of his allies and, let’s face it, the governments that his country depends on.

Pardon my French, but Putin must be pissing himself laughing.

CNBC put it in a slightly more diplomatic way, but the sentiment was the same.

P.S.: I did not want to write this piece. But somebody had to. Now please tell me that I am wrong. I would dearly love to be wrong on this one.