Ukraine Update: Friday, Jan. 10, 2025

For a full global news roundup, subscribe to The Cipher Brief's Open Source Report.

Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump says meeting with Putin to end Russia’s war on Ukraine is being set up. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was being arranged, though no timeline was provided. Speaking at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, before a meeting with Republican governors on Thursday, Trump remarked, “He wants to meet, and we are setting it up. President Putin wants to meet. He has said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess.” Trump’s imminent return to the White House on Jan. 20 has raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to Russia’s war on Ukraine, but concerns linger in Kyiv about a potential peace deal that might favor Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier on Thursday that Putin would welcome Trump’s desire for contact, but so far there have been no formal requests. It would be more appropriate to wait for Trump to take office first, Peskov said. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24

Donald Trump pushes back Ukraine war deadline in sign of support for Kyiv. President-elect Donald Trump has softened his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours,” instead proposing a short-term timeline for achieving peace, with discussions suggesting a range of weeks to months. European officials view this recalibration as a signal that U.S. support for Ukraine will continue after Trump’s inauguration. Trump’s envoy, Keith Kellogg, emphasized the need for a swift yet sustainable resolution. European leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron, stress the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine in any peace deal. Meloni underscored that such guarantees are essential to prevent further Russian aggression, while Macron suggested deploying European troops as part of a long-term deterrence strategy. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed readiness for dialogue but seeks to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and reduce NATO’s eastern presence. Western officials caution against concessions that could embolden adversaries like China and Iran. Financial Times

Biden set to push new Russia sanctions before Trump era begins. President Joe Biden is preparing to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy before leaving office on Jan. 20. According to a U.S. official, the measures will focus on reducing Russia’s oil revenues, a critical funding source for its war on Ukraine. Potential targets include two Russian oil companies, over 100 tankers, oil traders, and Russian insurance firms. Biden aides are briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the sanctions, which aim to bolster Ukraine’s position before potential peace negotiations. Additional sanctions on Chinese entities supporting Russia are also under consideration as the administration seeks to maximize pressure in its final days. Reuters

With Trump Arriving, Zelensky Urges Allies Not to ‘Drop the Ball Now.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base on Thursday, urging continued military support amid concerns over U.S. policy shifts with Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. Zelensky emphasized the risk of halting aid, stating it would be “crazy to drop the ball now.” He highlighted Ukraine’s progress in building defense coalitions and called for intensified cooperation to counter Russian aggression. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a $500 million military aid package, including air defense missiles and F-16 sustainment equipment, stressing that “Ukraine’s survival is on the line.” Zelensky also advocated for Western troop deployment as a potential strategy to force peace and called for expanding Ukraine’s drone arsenal, which he said had “changed the nature of war.” Cyprus joined the coalition, symbolizing a shift away from Moscow’s influence. As Trump signals skepticism over continued support, Zelensky framed the moment as a critical test for global democracies, asserting, “If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow.” New York Times Independent Moscow Times Washington Post

Zelensky says a meeting of allies’ pledges $2 billion in aid. At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Ramstein, Germany, allies pledged $2 billion in additional aid to Ukraine. The United States committed $500 million, including air defense missiles, munitions, and F-16 sustainment equipment. Germany announced three IRIS-T air defense systems, 13 Gepard tanks, and additional missiles. Cyprus joined the coalition, breaking its historical reliance on Russian military support. The funding aims to bolster Ukraine’s defenses as it approaches the third year of Russia’s war, with contributions from 34 nations. Reuters Euronews

Kallas says the EU is ready to take the lead on Ukraine if the US is no longer willing. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Thursday that Europe is ready to take the lead in supporting Ukraine if U.S. commitment falters under Donald Trump. She emphasized that continued aid is essential, stating, “It is not in America’s interest that Russia becomes the strongest force in the world.” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed the need for adaptability, pledging German support while acknowledging U.S. leadership remains ideal. Pistorius stated, “If the U.S. steps back, we will make our own decisions.” Politico EU Reuters

Olaf Scholz blocked €3 Billion Ukraine aid proposal, German report says. According to Spiegel, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reportedly blocked an additional €3 billion Ukraine aid package proposed by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The plan included Iris-T air defense batteries, howitzers, and ammunition, justified by Ukraine’s worsening military situation and doubts about U.S. support under Donald Trump. Scholz argued that existing aid, including €4 billion for 2025 and funds from a G7 loan, was sufficient and expressed concerns about binding the next government financially. Despite this, Pistorius reaffirmed Germany’s commitment, redirecting 50 IRIS-T missiles to Ukraine at the Ramstein summit. Politico EU

Ukraine’s Defeat Would Cost US Far More Than Aid, Group Argues. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) estimates that a Russian victory in Ukraine would cost the U.S. an additional $808 billion in defense spending through 2029. This increase would raise the Pentagon’s budget from the planned $4.4 trillion to $5.2 trillion, requiring about $165 billion more annually. AEI warns that Russia’s success would embolden threats to NATO and destabilize Europe, necessitating heightened U.S. military investments to deter or counter potential Russian aggression. The report concludes that supporting Ukraine now is less costly than addressing the long-term security risks of a Russian victory. Bloomberg

UK announces coalition will send Ukraine 30,000 new drones. The UK and Latvia announced the procurement of 30,000 drones for Ukraine Thursday as part of a £45 million initiative led by the “drone capability coalition,” which includes Denmark, the Netherlands, Latvia, and Sweden. The drones, described as state-of-the-art UAVs capable of bypassing Russian defenses, will bolster Ukraine’s ability to target enemy positions and vehicles. UK Defense Secretary John Healey highlighted the coalition’s message of unwavering international support for Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base. The coalition’s fund has raised £73 million, with the UK contributing £15 million. Additional commitments include a £1.3 billion UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine – which procures priority military equipment, including air defense and artillery systems. Britain’s new Labour government, which took power in July, committed to continue giving £3 billion a year in military aid to Ukraine until 2030-2031. CNA

Norway allocates over $2 billion in military aid for Ukraine in 2025, Umerov says. Norway has allocated €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in military aid to Ukraine for 2025, marking its largest aid package yet, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced after meeting Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram at the Ramstein summit on Thursday. The funding prioritizes air defense, ammunition production, and joint military projects. Norway also introduced a “Norwegian model” to complement Denmark’s arms purchasing from Ukrainian manufacturers, strengthening Ukraine’s defense industry. Kyiv Independent

Italy’s Meloni sees Trump defending Western interests, engaging with Ukraine. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed confidence Thursday that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will uphold Western interests and remain engaged with Ukraine. Following a private meeting with Trump in Florida, Meloni dismissed fears of U.S. disengagement. She praised Trump’s ability to balance “diplomacy and deterrence” and stressed that keeping Russia in a difficult position is key to fostering negotiations. Addressing Trump’s remarks on Greenland and Panama, Meloni framed them as strategic warnings against foreign influence, saying, “The United States will not stand by while other major global players move into areas of strategic interest.” While supportive, she criticized Trump’s proposed tariffs on global imports, calling for solutions through U.S.-European Union dialogue. On NATO defense spending, Meloni highlighted challenges within EU budget rules, urging reforms to support defense needs better. Her alignment with Trump signals a strengthened transatlantic relationship. CNA

Ukraine says Russia dropped over 51,000 guided bombs since the start of the war. Russia has dropped over 51,000 guided bombs on Ukraine since its full-scale invasion began, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. These glide bombs, often Soviet-era munitions upgraded with wings and satellite navigation, are highly destructive, difficult to intercept, and more abundant than missiles. In 2024 alone, Russia deployed 40,000 such bombs. Regions near the frontlines and the Russian border are frequent targets. Recent strikes include one in Zaporizhzhia that killed 13 and injured 113, and another in Kherson that injured six. Ukrainian officials stress the need to target the warplanes and airfields launching these devastating attacks. Reuters

How Ukraine’s ace drone unit hunts Russian soldiers near Kupiansk. Ukraine’s Achilles Strike Drone Battalion, operating near Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, exemplifies the growing reliance on drones in modern warfare. This elite unit, part of Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade, uses first-person view (FPV) drones armed with custom explosives to target Russian forces with precision. Led by commanders like “Skhid,” the team navigates treacherous conditions to intercept enemy infantry and vehicles, often destroying targets undeterred by makeshift defenses. Drones play a crucial role as Ukraine faces manpower shortages and escalating Russian assaults. Despite successes, commander Skhid notes that drones alone cannot replace the need for infantry to hold positions. With Ukraine producing over 1.5 million FPVs in 2024, this technology has reshaped the battlefield, offering a glimpse into the future of warfare while highlighting the enduring need for human defenders. Kyiv Independent

Russian forces 2 kilometers from Kupiansk’s outskirts, official says. Russian forces are now just two kilometers from Kupiansk’s outskirts, escalating pressure on the key northeastern Ukrainian town, Andrii Besedin, head of the Kupiansk town military administration, said Thursday. Despite Ukrainian forces repelling multiple assaults in December, Russia continues to intensify attacks, with 12 strikes reported near Holubivka and Petropavlivka on Jan. 8. Russian troops aim to secure the Svatove-Kupiansk highway and gain a foothold in Dvorichna, potentially threatening Kupiansk and Vovchansk with rear attacks. Kyiv Independent

Soldiers of the Ukrainian Defense Forces fought off a massive assault in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces, including the 47th Mechanized Brigade, repelled a massive Russian assault in the Kursk region. The attacks came in six waves, involving 50 Russian vehicles, including tanks, IFVs, and APCs. Ukrainian troops used FPV drones and artillery, including cluster munitions, to destroy enemy equipment and infantry. Footage showed burning vehicles and significant Russian losses: 45 killed and 53 wounded. Adjacent units, such as the 61st Mechanized Brigade, also played a key role in holding the line and neutralizing enemy assaults. Militarnyi

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 3, injure 19 over past day. Russian strikes killed three civilians and injured 19 across Ukraine in the past day, regional authorities reported on Friday. Two fatalities occurred in Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, while Kherson Oblast saw one death and 16 injuries across 41 targeted settlements. Russian forces launched 72 drones overnight, with Ukrainian defenses downing 33. Additional injuries were reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts, where local authorities noted damages from drone attacks and shelling. Ukrainian officials highlighted the effectiveness of anti-aircraft and electronic warfare countermeasures. Kyiv Independent

Four dead in shelling incidents in Ukraine, officials say. Four people were killed in shelling incidents in Ukraine on Thursday. Russian forces shelled Siversk in Donetsk, killing two, according to Ukrainian officials. In Russian-controlled Kamyanka-Dniprovska, Ukrainian fire reportedly killed two, said the Russia-appointed governor. The town lies near the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Reuters

Russia accuses Ukraine of striking supermarket in Donetsk, killing two. Russia accused Ukraine of launching a missile strike on a supermarket in Russian-controlled Donetsk on Friday, killing two civilians and wounding two others. Russian officials claimed a U.S.-supplied HIMARS missile was used, though this remains unverified. The strike reportedly damaged other buildings and cars. Unconfirmed footage showed a large explosion at the supermarket. Separately, Russian-backed authorities said a Ukrainian strike on Svitlodarsk killed one woman and injured four. Reuters

Ukrainian drones reportedly hit industrial site near St Petersburg in attack on multiple Russian oblasts. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck multiple Russian regions overnight on Friday, sparking fires in Leningrad and Rostov oblasts. Russian air defenses claimed to intercept 40 drones, including 16 in Rostov and 10 over the Azov Sea. In Leningrad Oblast’s Gatchina, fires engulfed 1,900 square meters, impacting industrial facilities like an acetone plant and food processing site. In Rostov, a fire covered 2,000 square meters near the city, with additional damage reported in the village of Chaltyr. No casualties were reported. Kyiv Independent

Pump Russian gas or face the consequences, Fico threatens Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Thursday threatened political and economic sanctions against Ukraine unless it resumes Russian gas transit to the European Union, following Kyiv’s refusal to extend a deal that expired on New Year’s Day. Fico warned of retaliatory measures, including cutting electricity exports to Ukraine and blocking its EU accession. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected enabling Russia to profit from gas exports to finance its war. Slovakia, which has a contract with Russia’s Gazprom, needs 4-5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year to meet its needs, and has been taking around 3 bcm from Russia through Ukraine. Politico EU Reuters

Zelensky turns to alternative media to reach U.S. audiences. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has adopted a strategy of engaging with alternative media to reach U.S. audiences aligned with the incoming Trump administration. In a three-hour interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, posted on YouTube and garnering over 4 million views, Zelensky aimed to connect with Donald Trump supporters as Republicans prepare to control U.S. government. Using candid, often expletive language, he discussed security guarantees, corruption, and frustrations over the Budapest Memorandum. This marks a shift from traditional media outreach, reflecting Ukraine’s effort to sustain U.S. support amid growing skepticism within Trump’s political base. Washington Post

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 9. Russian elites’ express frustration with Vladimir Putin’s half-measures in the war and call for intensifying efforts, according to independent media outlet Meduza. Russian security officials advocate for further mobilization instead of pursuing negotiations. Russia’s slow advance stems from poor battlefield maneuvering, not manpower shortages, as elites claim. Meduza’s report shows Russia’s leadership remains opposed to meaningful peace negotiations. A Russian detention center in Taganrog reportedly tortures Ukrainian POWs and civilians. Armenia initiated its European Union accession process with a draft law requiring a referendum.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk and in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces advanced near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Russia’s economic dilemmas give Trump important leverage in negotiations on Ukraine. But will he use it? David Lubin argues that Russia’s economic vulnerabilities present an opportunity for U.S. leverage in negotiations over Ukraine. Russia’s tight monetary policy reflects an overheating economy and a shortage of hard currency, exacerbated by sanctions and the war’s impact. Despite these pressures, Donald Trump’s willingness to exploit them remains uncertain. Trump may prioritize isolating China over pressuring Vladimir Putin, potentially weakening U.S. influence. Lubin suggests aggressive actions, such as tightening sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil fleet and increasing global oil supply, could strain the Russian economy further. However, whether Trump seizes these opportunities will shape both Ukraine’s fate and U.S.-China competition. Chatham House