Ukraine Update: Friday, Jan. 24, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump asks China to help end the war in Ukraine and blames Russia, high oil prices for its continuation. Appearing in a video link to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Thursday, Donald Trump outlined strategies to end the war in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for external pressure on Russia. He called on China to leverage its influence, citing its economic ties to Russia and its ability to shape outcomes. Trump said he directly asked President Xi Jinping to help stop the war, noting China’s “great deal of power over that situation.” Trump also urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations to lower oil prices, arguing that reduced energy revenues would choke off Russia’s ability to finance the war. “If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately,” he said. “They should have done it long ago. They’re very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what’s taking place. Millions of lives are being lost.” Asked whether he believed the war in Ukraine would end by the time the WEF returned to Davos in a year, Trump said: “Well, you’re gonna have to ask Russia. Ukraine is ready to make a deal.” The Telegraph Politico EU The Guardian Transcript of Trump’s speech

Trump suggests Ukraine shouldn’t have fought back against Russia. In a Fox News interview, President Donald Trump criticized both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, reiterating his belief that Ukraine should not have fought back against Russia’s 2022 invasion. Trump described Zelensky as “no angel,” claiming he could have brokered a deal to prevent the war. “Zelensky was fighting a much bigger entity — much bigger, much more powerful. He shouldn’t have done that because we could have made a deal and it would have been a deal that would have been — it would have been a nothing deal,” Trump said. “I could have made that deal so easily, and Zelensky decided that ‘I want a fight.’’’ Trump emphasized his readiness to impose severe tariffs and sanctions on Russia if it fails to negotiate peace, stating, “If they don’t settle this war soon, like almost immediately, I’m going to put massive tariffs on Russia.” Trump, who met Zelensky in September 2024, argued the war “has to stop” and promised to end it within a day of negotiations. Fox News NBC News USA Today

In Davos, buoyed by Trump, hopes for peace in Ukraine grow. At Thursday’s World Economic Forum in Davos, optimism about peace in Ukraine gained momentum as Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric on Russia shifted perceptions. In a virtual address, Trump demanded Russia negotiate an end to the war, calling it a “ridiculous” conflict and warning Moscow of worsening consequences if it continued. Analysts in Davos welcomed this stance, noting Russia’s economic strain and declining war capacity. Ukrainian officials stressed that Western military aid and security guarantees remain vital to ensure a durable peace. Trump urged NATO members to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the push. “The problem is not Trump or the U.S.,” Rutte said. “The problem is Europe.” The emerging consensus: peace talks must leave Kyiv in a position of strength. While Russian demands for a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine persist, Davos participants rallied behind Ukraine’s vision of sovereignty and territorial restoration, buoyed by the renewed pressure Trump’s stance could bring to Moscow. Washington Post.

Ukraine says Trump’s sanctions threat sends ‘strong signal’ to Russia. Ukraine welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to agree to end the war, calling it a “strong signal.” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at the World Economic Forum in Davos: “We do welcome such strong messages from President Trump… and believe we have an additional chance to get a new dynamic in diplomatic efforts to end this war.” While Kyiv has urged tougher sanctions, concerns linger over a rushed deal favoring Russia. Reuters

Trump Allies Give Europe’s Leaders Reality Check on Ukraine. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. and European leaders clashed over Ukraine’s potential NATO membership and approaches to ending the war. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized that peace talks should only begin when Ukraine is strong, warning against a “bad deal” that could embolden Russia. Trump envoy Richard Grenell criticized European allies, stating, “You cannot ask the American people to expand NATO when current members aren’t paying their fair share.” Grenell also called the lack of U.S.-Russia dialogue “outrageous.” Ukrainian allies applauded pro-Kyiv sentiments, while Trump’s nationalist stance, including sanctions threats, previewed future transatlantic tensions. Wall Street Journal

Europeans Push Trump to Play a Part in Guarantees for Ukraine. European officials are pressing President Donald Trump to commit to U.S. participation in peacekeeping guarantees for Ukraine as efforts to end the war intensify. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists U.S. troops must be involved in deterring Russia, while Trump signals openness to security guarantees but expects Europe to bear most of the burden. European leaders worry U.S. reluctance to provide substantial military support could undermine NATO and weaken guarantees. Bloomberg

Russia’s drone attack kills 3 in Ukraine’s Kyiv region. Russia’s overnight drone attack Friday on Ukraine’s Kyiv region killed three civilians and injured one, damaging residential buildings, private homes, commercial structures, and vehicles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 25 of 58 drones, while electronic warfare redirected 27 others. Russian forces have intensified air assaults, deploying over 7,000 drones in 2024—double the previous year’s total—though many were neutralized. Officials reported sustained targeting of civilian areas, highlighting the increasing reliance on drones as the war nears its three-year mark. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 9 over the past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed six people and injured nine, targeting multiple oblasts, authorities said Friday. Besides the overnight Friday attack that killed three civilians, including a married couple, in the Kyiv region, Russia hit other areas. Donetsk Oblast reported two deaths and five injuries, with strikes on Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk. In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone attack killed a woman, while Kherson Oblast saw three injuries and damage to homes. Reuters

Russia says it repelled a massive Ukrainian drone attack on 13 regions, including Moscow. Russia claims to have repelled a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight Friday, destroying 121 drones across 13 regions, including Moscow, where air defenses intercepted several attacks. Targets included oil depots, power stations, and factories. Russia’s Defense Ministry noted disruptions at Moscow airports and power outages in Kursk, while Ukrainian sources reported strikes on facilities producing military components in Ryazan and Bryansk. Reuters

Ukraine Is Losing Fewer Soldiers Than Russia — but It’s Still Losing the War. While Russia suffers nearly double the casualties of Ukraine, it replenishes forces at a far greater pace, drawing on its larger population, conscripting prisoners, and deploying 11,000 North Korean troops. Ukraine, by contrast, faces stalled recruitment efforts amid draft evasion and corruption. Estimates suggest Ukraine has lost over 100,000 soldiers, including at least 35,000 missing and presumed dead, casting doubt on the lower official figures. This imbalance has led to a battlefield disparity, with over 400,000 Russian troops facing 250,000 Ukrainians. Despite inflicting heavy losses on Russia, Ukraine’s limited manpower and recruitment delays strain its ability to sustain the fight. Russia’s recruitment and external support enable it to expand its forces. Each Ukrainian casualty deepens the challenge as the Kremlin capitalizes on its numerical advantage to grind down Ukraine’s defenses. New York Times

Ukraine is reforming its recruitment efforts to attract younger soldiers and boost forces. Ukraine is finalizing reforms to its recruitment system to attract 18- to 25-year-olds, a group exempt from conscription, according to Colonel Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of the President’s Office. Describing the effort as an “honest contract,” Palisa outlined plans for financial incentives, training guarantees, and improved dialogue between soldiers and commanders. He emphasized the need to modernize the Soviet-era system, which has hindered Ukraine’s ability to replenish battlefield losses. “We actually have a huge mobilization resource… the mechanism we currently have does not allow us to be as effective as we could be,” he said. Palisa, a former frontline commander, highlighted the urgency of adapting military structures to modern warfare, citing challenges on the 1,000-kilometer frontline. Associated Press

Russia rejects the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia has dismissed NATO’s proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, warning it could lead to an “uncontrollable escalation.” On Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized comments from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about their nations’ potential contributions to such a force. Pistorius noted Germany’s role as NATO’s largest European partner, while Starmer expressed Britain’s willingness to participate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested at least 200,000 peacekeepers might be needed to secure any ceasefire. Reuters

Russia reacts to Trump’s sanctions threat: Zzzzzzzzzz. Russian officials have largely dismissed President Donald Trump’s threats of additional sanctions and tariffs if Moscow fails to negotiate a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized Trump’s warnings as political posturing, reiterating Russia’s readiness for dialogue but stating that no substantive signals from the U.S. have been received. President Vladimir Putin prioritizes a settlement that secures Russia’s territorial gains, demilitarizes Ukraine, and keeps the nation out of NATO. Meanwhile, Trump’s acknowledgment that negotiations may take longer highlights the challenges in ending the war. Politico EU Wall Street Journal

Did Ukraine Kill Its Own by Downing a Russian Plane? A Year Later, It Hasn’t Said. One year after a Russian IL-76 military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashed in the Belgorod region, Ukraine has not confirmed its involvement or released investigation findings. Russia accuses Ukraine of downing the plane with a Patriot missile, a claim supported by U.S. officials. The crash, which occurred during a planned prisoner exchange, sparked an international outcry and calls for transparency. Ukrainian officials suggested the plane, often used for ammunition transport, was a legitimate target but denied knowledge of prisoners onboard. Families of the victims await answers, having submitted DNA for identification. Despite a November exchange of remains, no official identifications have been confirmed. The incident highlights persistent ambiguity in the Russia-Ukraine war, with both sides reluctant to disclose missteps. New York Times

With Support Dwindling and Trump in Power, Zelensky Could Face Tough Re-election. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces declining domestic support and rising political opposition as the war with Russia nears its third year. Once enjoying 90% approval, recent polls show trust at 52%, with rivals like former military commander Valery Zaluzhny gaining traction. Zelensky’s challenges are compounded by Donald Trump’s return to power, with the U.S. president adopting a skeptical stance on military aid and calling Zelensky “the greatest salesman in history.” Despite opposition figures like Yulia Tymoshenko seeking ties with Trump’s team, Zelensky’s administration has scrambled to strengthen relations, even considering acquiring Ukrainian-language rights to Melania Trump’s book. Oleksandr Merezhko, a Zelensky ally, dismissed opposition outreach as “political PR,” emphasizing Ukraine’s democratic values. Trump has alternated between praise and criticism, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions “destroying Russia.” New York Times

Ukraine intelligence chief says North Korean weapons are flooding into Russia. Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, said Thursday that North Korea has supplied Russia with substantial military aid, including 120 self-propelled artillery guns, 120 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 148 short-range ballistic missiles in 2024, with more expected in 2025. He also estimated that 12,000 North Korean troops are fighting alongside Russian forces, though a third have reportedly been killed or wounded. This marks a deepening military collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang following a 2024 defense treaty. Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia, a rare occurrence as wounded North Korean troops are typically executed to conceal their presence. North Korean troops have adapted quickly to combat conditions in Ukraine, gaining a reputation for bravery and discipline. Reinforcements could arrive within two months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the captured soldiers were being interrogated in Kyiv, while Russian bloggers and Ukrainian officials corroborate the flow of North Korean weaponry. Washington Post Kyiv Independent

North Korea prepares to send more troops to Russia, South Korea says. South Korea suspects North Korea is preparing to send more troops to Russia after suffering losses in the Russia-Ukraine war, with over 3,000 North Korean soldiers reportedly killed or wounded. Pyongyang had deployed around 12,000 troops to Russia, supplying artillery and conventional weapons. Ukraine recently captured two North Korean soldiers. Despite initial denials, Russian President Vladimir Putin later acknowledged North Korean military presence. Experts warn that deepening ties between Russia and North Korea may bolster Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Associated Press Reuters

57% of Ukrainians believe peace without full territorial integrity will fail, poll shows. A recent Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll shows 57% of Ukrainians believe peace without full territorial integrity will fail, a view shared across demographics. The survey highlights mixed opinions on U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, with those prioritizing territorial integrity more likely to view him negatively. As Trump explores delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for peace talks, President Vladimir Putin reiterates demands for keeping 20% of Ukrainian territory that Russia currently occupies. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv investigates another case of Russian soldiers executing Ukraine POWs. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office opened a war crimes case Thursday after a video surfaced showing Russian soldiers executing six unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk. The video, circulated on Telegram, depicts Russian soldiers shooting POWs methodically, violating the Geneva Convention. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has filed complaints with the United Nations and Red Cross, citing a sharp rise in such incidents, with 177 executions recorded since 2022. Lubinets condemned Russia’s systemic disregard for international law and called for justice. Despite Kremlin denials, figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have openly encouraged the mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs. Politico EU

Norway accused of profiting from war in Ukraine. Norway has faced criticism for profiting from Russia’s war on Ukraine by generating €107.7 billion in additional revenue due to soaring gas prices, becoming Europe’s top natural gas supplier following the Russian embargo. Despite its vast oil fund valued at €1.7 trillion, Norway allocated only €2.3 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2024, less than Denmark’s €3.6 billion contribution. Critics, including Denmark’s Politiken newspaper and Norwegian economists, argue Oslo is not doing enough to support Ukraine, ranking ninth in aid proportional to GDP, far behind other nations like Denmark and Estonia. Le Monde

Ukraine’s fighter pilots use valuable Cold War skills, former US pilot says. Ukrainian fighter pilots are reviving Cold War-era low-altitude flying techniques to counter extensive air defense threats, offering valuable lessons to the West. Retired U.S. Air Force Col. John Venable emphasized the challenge and necessity of these tactics, saying, “Your ability to actually fly really low… takes a while to do. In the process, you lose a lot of aircraft and pilots.” While Western forces have shifted to medium-altitude operations and rely on stealth technology, Venable cautioned that advancements in surface-to-air missile systems might force even stealth platforms to re-adopt low-level strategies. Ukraine’s experience highlights the importance of adapting air tactics, stocking air defenses, and preparing for grinding, high-intensity conflicts like the war with Russia. Venable noted that “we could learn a lot” from Ukrainian pilots about countering modern threats. Business Insider

Russia accuses UNICEF head of caring more about kids in Ukraine than Gaza. Russia on Thursday accused UNICEF head Catherine Russell of prioritizing Ukrainian children over those in Gaza after she declined to brief the United Nations Security Council on Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, citing scheduling conflicts. Russia’s envoy claimed this reflected bias, while UNICEF stated Russell had addressed Gaza’s children previously and delegated the task. U.S. envoy Dorothy Shea rejected accusations of U.S. complicity in Gaza’s suffering following earlier vetoes supporting Israel. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher reported 17,000 children in Gaza separated from families. Humanitarian aid surged after a recent ceasefire. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 23. Russia plans to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, and artillery systems, including M-1989 Koksan and M-1991 MLRS, to Kursk Oblast, with North Korean troops training Russian forces on these weapons. The Kremlin is worried about perceptions of economic instability, with some Russian elites advocating for negotiations to end the war as President Vladimir Putin faces pressure from economic strains. Ukrainian officials are investigating footage showing Russian forces executing at least six unarmed Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is taking steps to shield industrial facilities in Russian border regions from potential Ukrainian strikes.

Battlefield update: Russian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: America must continue to arm Ukraine — without U.S. taxpayer dollars. Jack Keane and Marc A. Thiessen argue for a shift in U.S. support for Ukraine, proposing that Ukraine transition from being an aid recipient to a defense consumer. They advocate using frozen Russian assets, valued at $300 billion, to finance Ukraine’s purchase of U.S. weapons, alleviating the burden on U.S. taxpayers. They also suggest leveraging Ukraine’s vast natural resources, worth an estimated $26 trillion, as collateral for loans to procure military equipment. The authors emphasize this approach would strengthen U.S.-Ukraine defense ties while revitalizing America’s defense industrial base. Keane and Thiessen also highlight existing legal frameworks, such as lend-lease programs and foreign military financing. Washington Post

Opinion: Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilize its citizens to fight? Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko argue that Ukraine’s struggle to mobilize citizens for the war reflects deeper sociopolitical fractures. They highlight growing public discontent with the unequal burdens of war, as the rural poor are disproportionately conscripted while urban elites evade service. The post-Soviet social contract, marked by state neglect and individual survivalism, has left Ukrainians skeptical of patriotic calls for sacrifice. Public polls reveal widespread opposition to mobilization, with many viewing it as futile. Corruption, such as bribery for draft exemptions, exacerbates class divides. Military morale suffers as forcibly conscripted troops face poor treatment and high casualties. The authors contend Ukraine’s leadership has failed to inspire a unified national vision, relying instead on fear of invasion and devastation. This fragmented sense of purpose undermines the state’s ability to rally its population for the war, leaving many questioning whether this fight truly represents their Ukraine. Al Jazeera

Opinion: Cash-Rich Ukraine Is Future-Proofed (for Now). Timothy Ash highlights Ukraine’s strong financial position, bolstered by Western aid, including the G7’s $50 billion Extraordinary Revenue Agreement (ERA), which securitizes future interest from $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets. Coupled with the European Union’s €50 billion macro-financial assistance program and contributions from other allies, plus cash reserves, Ukraine has access to $150 billion, sufficient to meet funding needs until 2026. However, U.S. military support remains pivotal. Without it, Ukraine’s defense could falter. Ash suggests President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government could independently fund U.S. arms contracts, appealing to Trump’s mercantilist instincts by creating U.S. jobs. Center for European Policy Analysis