Ukraine Update: Monday, Jan. 13, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Mike Waltz calls for Ukraine to lower conscription age; says Trump and Putin to speak soon. Incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz urged Ukraine to address manpower shortages by lowering its conscription age from 25 to 18, highlighting the country’s need to “be all in for democracy” if it expects continued global support. Speaking on ABC News “This Week,” Waltz emphasized that stabilizing the front lines is essential for pursuing a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Waltz also said that President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to hold a phone call “in the coming days and weeks” to discuss potential peace efforts. While Moscow has acknowledged Trump’s openness to dialogue, it dismissed leaked peace terms, including delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership and freezing the front lines. Waltz did not confirm Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inclusion in talks but warned that achieving peace would require time and effort. He called a full Russian withdrawal, including from Crimea, unrealistic, underscoring the importance of dialogue and negotiation. Bloomberg Financial Times Politico Kyiv Independent Ukrainska Pravda

Biden and Zelensky discuss US support for Ukraine, sanctions, air defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised new U.S. and UK sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector, emphasizing their crippling effect on Moscow’s war financing. “These measures deliver a significant blow to the financial foundation of Russia’s war machine by disrupting its entire supply chain,” Zelensky wrote on X. The U.S. sanctioned over 180 ships and major oil firms Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which the UK also targeted, describing their profits as “lining Vladimir Putin’s war chest.” Zelensky highlighted the sanctions’ potential to slash Russia’s revenues by billions monthly, hastening peace. During their Friday discussion, Zelensky also thanked U.S. President Joe Biden, lauding Washington’s leadership in uniting global support for Ukraine. They addressed air defense enhancements, including the effectiveness of U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles. “He [Putin] must feel the cost of his war by seeing it directly undermine his own pockets,” Zelensky noted. Reuters Reuters The Guardian

Zelensky calls on allies to honor promises on arms supplies to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies to honor commitments to provide weapons, including air defense systems, as Russian attacks persist. Writing Sunday on Telegram, Zelensky highlighted those Russian forces had launched hundreds of strikes over the past week, using nearly 700 aerial bombs and 600 attack drones. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 redirected via electronic warfare. Zelensky stressed that Russia’s aerial superiority enables ongoing aggression and criticized delays in implementing NATO and Ramstein agreements. He also discussed licensing Ukraine to produce air defense systems with the U.S. and partner nations this week. Reuters

Boris Johnson brands Vladimir Putin a ‘f—— idiot’ over imperial ambitions. Boris Johnson criticized Vladimir Putin as a “f—— idiot” over his imperial ambitions, declaring, “No more empire, Vladimir.” Speaking to Baltic news outlet Delfi on Saturday, the former British prime minister described Putin’s actions as “archaic and barbaric,” adding, “Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – none of these countries are part of the Russian imperium anymore. And nor is Ukraine. It’s over – over, over, over.” Johnson urged Western leaders to renew efforts for Ukraine’s NATO membership, arguing, “We will not solve the Ukraine problem without Article 5 guarantees or long-term NATO membership.” He criticized NATO members, particularly Germany, for underfunding defense while expecting U.S. support. He also revealed delays in British arms deliveries to Ukraine before the 2022 invasion, blaming “stupid” objections from officials. Johnson, an outspoken supporter of Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized decisive action, warning, “The West is retreating again.” The Telegraph

Diary of a Dead North Korean Soldier Reveals Grisly Battlefield Tactics. North Korean soldiers, sent to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, are suffering heavy losses and relying on crude, sacrificial tactics. A diary recovered from a slain soldier, Jong Kyong Hong, revealed loyalty to Kim Jong Un and battlefield strategies such as using one soldier as “bait” to lure Ukrainian drones. Over 4,000 North Koreans have been killed or injured since December, with their indoctrination leaving no concept of surrender. Deployed in Kursk since October, these troops were initially used for logistics but are now in front-line combat, often unprepared and poorly integrated. Ukraine’s special forces report reckless maneuvers, such as running across open fields without armored support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimates tens of thousands of North Koreans could follow. Experts note their actions are rooted in ideological fervor, with handwritten notes glorifying sacrifice for Kim and detailing tactics to survive under fire. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine releases the first testimony from captured North Korean soldiers. Ukraine has revealed testimony from two North Korean soldiers captured in the Kursk region, marking the first public confirmation of Pyongyang’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Captured on January 9 and transported to Kyiv, the soldiers were interrogated with assistance from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service due to language barriers. One soldier, born in 2005, claimed he believed he was sent for training, while the other, born in 1999, served as a sniper and corroborated this account. Both men highlighted inadequate preparation, with only one week of training before deployment. Fake Russian documents were found on one soldier, suggesting attempts to obscure their identities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that capturing North Korean soldiers was difficult as Russian and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) forces often execute wounded troops to erase evidence. This testimony underscores increasing North Korean military support for Russia, with over 11,000 DPRK troops reportedly deployed to Russian-held territories. NK News Washington Post Associated Press Politico EU New York Times Yonhap News Agency Associated Press New York Times

Zelensky says he’s ready to exchange North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Kyiv is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held in Russia. “Ukraine is ready to hand over Kim Jong Un’s soldiers to him if he can organize their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia,” Zelensky said. He noted that one of the captured soldiers expressed willingness to remain in Ukraine, while the other preferred returning to North Korea. Zelensky said that for North Korean soldiers who did not wish to return home, there may be other options available. “Those who express a desire to bring peace closer by spreading the truth about this war in the Korean (language) will be given that opportunity,” he said. Reuters

Ukraine’s special forces claim to repel North Korean assault in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, killing 17 soldiers. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed Monday to have repelled a North Korean assault in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, killing 17 soldiers. The battle, lasting from morning to night, highlighted North Korea’s lack of modern warfare training, with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reporting 3,000 North Korean casualties since last fall. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the capture of two North Korean soldiers, now in custody. Reports suggest North Korean troops fear retaliation if captured. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine losing ground on the battlefield as Trump team pushes ceasefire. Ukraine faces mounting challenges as Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, with Russian forces advancing in Donetsk and Ukrainian troops outnumbered. Military spokesman Viktor Tregubov described Kurakhove as largely in ruins but still contested. Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, hopes for a solution within 100 days, but experts like Mick Ryan predict that Vladimir Putin will resist negotiations while maintaining battlefield momentum. Kyiv prioritizes a “just peace,” with President Volodymyr Zelensky seeking direct talks with Trump. However, analysts like Arkady Moshes argue that Russia seeks total victory, not compromise, complicating peace prospects amid ongoing hostilities. CNN

Ukraine says it has hit one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in a drone strike. Ukraine claimed responsibility for a drone strike on Russia’s Taneco oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, on Saturday, sparking a fire at the facility over 700 miles into Russian territory. Social media footage showed flames and evacuations, though local authorities denied a fire, attributing the scenes to a safety drill. Lieutenant Andrii Kovalenko emphasized the refinery’s strategic importance, citing its role in supplying fuel to Russia’s military. This marks the second attack on the refinery within a year; a 2024 strike damaged its primary processing unit and targeted other facilities in Tatarstan, underscoring Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian war logistics. CNN

Battles Rage Inside Russia, With Waves of Tanks, Drones and North Koreans. The battle for Russia’s Kursk region, a critical point in Ukraine’s strategy, rages on with ferocious intensity as both sides prepare for potential negotiations under Donald Trump’s impending presidency. Ukraine seeks to retain Kursk as leverage while creating a buffer zone for Sumy. President Volodymyr Zelensky called it “one of the biggest wins…throughout the war.” Russia’s reliance on disciplined North Korean reinforcements has intensified the fighting, described by Ukrainian soldiers as waves of relentless assaults. Sgt. Oleksandr compared the carnage to Bakhmut, saying, “You look and can’t fully grasp where you are, seeing every day how many people we destroy.” While Ukraine conducts counterattacks, gains remain modest, with Russia regaining ground and leveraging its superior resources. Military analysts warn of Ukraine stretching its forces, but soldiers argue the campaign draws elite Russian units away from other fronts, highlighting its strategic significance. The conflict underscores the mounting stakes amid geopolitical uncertainty. New York Times Washington Post

The FSB town where officers lived in luxury… and fled in haste. Ukrainian forces gained access to “Little Monaco,” a luxurious housing complex for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) agency in the Russian city of Sudzha, after a cross-border offensive in August 2024. The abandoned residences revealed extensive documents detailing FSB operations, including counterintelligence efforts, monitoring of locals, and border control activities. Vitaliy, a Ukrainian intelligence officer, noted the officers “lived very well,” with high salaries and premium amenities provided by Moscow. Significant findings included photos of agents, potentially aiding in identifying operatives abroad, and surveillance records on pro-Ukrainian locals. InformNapalm, a Ukrainian volunteer intelligence group, played a key role, with leader Mykhailo Makaruk emphasizing efforts to disrupt FSB capabilities. Despite the insights, an intelligence source cautioned, “It’s not like we captured Lubyanka,” the FSB headquarters in Moscow, suggesting the discoveries are tactical rather than transformative. The Times

The New Drones Boosting Russia’s Advances on The Battlefield In Ukraine. Russia is deploying fiber-optic drones in Ukraine, significantly enhancing battlefield capabilities by bypassing electronic jamming. Tethered to operators by lightweight cables, these drones maintain stable connections over long distances, allowing for reconnaissance and precision strikes. Unlike traditional drones, they are harder to detect and disrupt, presenting new challenges for Ukrainian forces. The drones’ effectiveness lies in their ability to fly low, avoid detection, and strike accurately. However, drawbacks include susceptibility to small arms fire, limited range, and operational challenges in forested or obstructed areas. Ukrainian forces are adapting, using nets and small arms to counter them while accelerating the development of similar drones. Experts highlight the tactical shift these drones represent, with Russia gaining an edge in electronic warfare. Ukrainian officials, including defense innovation leaders, stress the urgency of neutralizing this advantage as both sides intensify fighting. The technology illustrates evolving strategies in this pivotal phase of the war. RFE/RL The Telegraph

Germany to deploy Patriot air defense systems in Poland to protect aid center for Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed that Germany will deploy two Patriot air defense systems and 200 soldiers to Poland in late January to protect a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine. The Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, critical for Western aid, also hosts Norway’s NASAMS and F-35 jets, underscoring NATO’s commitment to securing supply chains for Ukraine’s defense. This operation, part of NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense framework, highlights the hub’s strategic proximity to Ukraine’s border. Militarnyi

Russian forces advance towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region. Russian forces are advancing towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region, bypassing Pokrovsk to avoid urban warfare. “They understand that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk, so they have decided to pursue a different strategy and approach from the south and go around it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official, said on Sunday. “They will try to cut off all the supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces leave there.” Russian troops are now just 6.5 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region highway. The region includes Pavlograd, a major military base, and Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city. “They are trying to get maximum territory so that when their forces are eventually exhausted, they have something to negotiate with,” Cherniak said. Financial Times

A Russian Field Army Set Up Its HQ In A Building Near Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian Munition Brought Down The Building. Ukrainian forces struck the headquarters of Russia’s 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in Novohrodivka, collapsing part of the building in a bid to disrupt Russian command and control. This attack, part of a series targeting Russian posts, aims to slow Russia’s offensive toward Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast. Novohrodivka’s proximity to Pokrovsk enables Russian forces to launch indirect attacks but also exposes them to Ukrainian counterstrikes. The escalating battle highlights Ukraine’s reliance on surveillance drones and precision strikes to weaken Russian advances as the war nears its fourth year. Casualty details remain unconfirmed. Forbes

For The First Time Since 2022, Ukraine May Have A Tank Advantage Over Russia. For the first time since 2022, Ukraine may have a tank advantage over Russia along parts of the 800-mile front line, thanks to superior drone tactics. Ukrainian drones disrupt Russian tank operations, forcing them to fire from camouflaged positions miles from the front, reducing their effectiveness. Meanwhile, Ukrainian tanks operate more freely, engaging Russian forces directly. However, Russia’s advanced fiber-optic drones in priority sectors like Kursk counter this advantage, while infantry shortages limit Ukraine’s progress despite its armored edge. Forbes

Russia says it captured a settlement near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed control Saturday of Shevchenko, near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as part of its ongoing westward advance. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 46 of 56 Russian attacks in the area, with 10 clashes ongoing. Russian strikes targeted Ukrainian airfields and infrastructure while shelling near Pokrovsk killed one civilian and injured four. Ukraine has not confirmed Shevchenko’s loss, and independent sources indicate Kurakhove, another key town, is also under Russian control. Reuters

Russia says it has taken control of two villages in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops have taken control of the villages of Yantarne in the Donetsk region and Kalynove in the Kharkiv region, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday. Separately, the ministry said that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have carried out strikes on Ukrainian military airfields, personnel, and vehicles in 139 locations using its air force, drones, missiles, and artillery. Reuters

Russian troops disguise themselves as civilians in Toretsk. Russian troops in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, have been disguising themselves as civilians, according to Ukraine’s 28th Brigade. Spotted by aerial reconnaissance, these actions, including reconnaissance and sabotage, breach the laws of war. Ukrainian forces noted that identical clothing, behavior, or visible weapons often expose the disguises. While this tactic complicates Ukrainian operations, they emphasized adherence to ethical conduct, contrasting with Russian practices of indiscriminate attacks. Ukrainska Pravda

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, injure 17 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed one civilian and injured 17, regional authorities reported on Monday. Strikes targeted multiple oblasts, including Sumy, where drone debris caused a fire at a children’s center, and Kherson, with 10 injured. In Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, shelling killed a 70-year-old man. Kyiv Independent

Russia says Ukrainian drones injure three in Tambov region. Ukraine launched drone attacks across Russia early Saturday, including the Tambov region, injuring three people and damaging two residential houses in Kotovsk. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting and destroying 85 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions. Airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk temporarily suspended flights for safety. Ukraine, meanwhile, said 74 Russian drones targeted its territory, with 47 intercepted. Both sides continue intensifying drone warfare. Reuters

Thousands without power after Russian strike on Ukraine’s Kherson, officials say. Russian shelling in Kherson left 23,000 households without power after damaging power infrastructure in the Dniprovskiy district. Over the past 24 hours, Kherson and around 50 nearby settlements endured shelling that hit social infrastructure and residential areas, damaging multiple buildings. Governor Oleksandr Prokudin detailed the destruction on Sunday. Reuters

After F-16 success, Ukraine seeks F-35 fighter jets. Ukraine aspires to acquire F-35 fighter jets to modernize its military aviation, but significant challenges make this unlikely in the near term. The F-35’s high cost, complex technology, and strict access controls require NATO membership, advanced infrastructure, and training capabilities. While Ukraine has successfully deployed F-16s and will soon receive French Mirage 2000-5Fs, integrating F-35s could escalate tensions with Russia. Current geopolitical and financial constraints mean Ukraine must focus on accessible technologies and strengthening alliances. Bulgarian Military

Russia forms an emergency task force as the Kerch Strait oil spill spreads. Russia has mobilized an emergency task force, including Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov, to address a persistent oil spill in the Kerch Strait. Fuel oil leakage from the Volgoneft-239 tanker, damaged during a storm, has contaminated over 155,000 tons of sand and soil near the port of Taman. The spill, which began a month ago, has spread to Crimea’s Sevastopol and as far as Berdyansk Spit, raising regional concerns. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry criticized Russia’s delayed response and called for sanctions. The spill highlights environmental risks in the Kerch Strait, a vital shipping route and point of tension since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Associated Press

British troops ‘should join post-war peacekeeping force in Ukraine.’ Former UK defense secretaries Grant Shapps and Gavin Williamson have called for British troops to participate in a post-war peacekeeping force in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for strong security guarantees. Shapps stated, “British troops contributing to a post-war peacekeeping force would undoubtedly be a welcome move, but it barely scratches the surface of what Ukraine truly needs,” urging the UK to support Ukraine’s NATO membership. President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to discuss this with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who faces criticism for his delayed visit to Ukraine. Williamson stressed the importance of reliable partners ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security. The Telegraph

German Defense Minister denies Scholz blocked proposal for $3 billion arms package for Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius denied reports that Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked a proposed €3 billion military aid package for Ukraine, stating that the decision awaits political approval. The package, backed by Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, includes Iris-T air defense batteries, howitzers, and artillery ammunition. Scholz reportedly raised concerns about financial obligations before early federal elections. Despite criticism for his cautious approach, Germany remains Ukraine’s second-largest military donor, recently providing nearly 50 guided missiles for the Iris-T system. Kyiv Independent

Fico refused Kyiv’s offers to help with gas supplies, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico for rejecting Ukraine’s offers to assist Slovakia following the halt of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory. “We offered assistance… but Fico arrogantly refused,” Zelensky said on Sunday, accusing Fico of shifting blame to Ukraine and relying on “PR, lies, and loud accusations.” He condemned Fico’s threat to cut humanitarian aid to Ukraine as opening “a second energy front” at Vladimir Putin’s behest. Zelensky added, “Fico bet on Moscow, not his country, not Europe, and certainly not common sense,” and called for U.S.-European collaboration to diversify energy supplies. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine tried to attack TurkStream pipeline infrastructure in southern Russia, Moscow says. Russia claimed Monday it downed nine Ukrainian drones targeting the TurkStream pipeline’s compressor station in Krasnodar, southern Russia. The facility sustained minor damage but remains operational, with no casualties reported. TurkStream is a key route for Russian gas to Turkey and Europe. Ukraine has not commented, and Reuters could not verify the incident. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 10-Sunday, Jan. 12. SUNDAY–Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army command post in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast, on Sunday. Ukrainian strikes targeting command posts, including those of the 8th Combined Arms Army and 3rd Army Corps, aim to disrupt Russian command and logistics across Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast on Thursday, with reports of poor conditions and significant losses among North Korean forces. SATURDAY–Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean POWs in Kursk Oblast, collaborating with South Korean intelligence due to language barriers. North Korean forces are using large-scale assault tactics in Ukraine, incurring heavy casualties while facing difficulties countering Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to push pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO, aiming to enforce these in potential negotiations with Western leaders. Ukrainian forces may have targeted a Tatarstan oil refinery with a drone strike Saturday, but conflicting reports leave the event unclear. FRIDAY–-Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition and drone storage warehouse in Rostov Oblast, using drones and Neptune missiles to overwhelm air defenses and target reconnaissance drone supplies. The Kremlin said it is willing to hold talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump without preconditions but reiterated its unchanged demands for Ukraine’s capitulation. The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan imposed new sanctions on Russia, targeting energy companies, vessels, and organizations linked to North Korea’s support for Russia. The European Union transferred €3 billion to Ukraine as part of a $50 billion initiative funded by profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s priority expenditures. A joint investigation confirmed that at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since February 2022.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump can use Russia’s space program to end the war in Ukraine. Mark R. Whittington argues that Donald Trump could leverage Russia’s declining space program to end the war in Ukraine. Russia’s space ambitions, such as a new station and lunar base with China, face significant hurdles like sanctions, financial constraints, and talent loss due to the war. Whittington suggests Trump could offer Russia a role in the U.S.-led Artemis lunar program if Vladimir Putin agrees to peace. This would grant Russia technological and economic benefits, reintegrate it into international partnerships, and weaken its alliance with China. Whittington highlights the opportunity for mutual gain and urges Russia to prioritize peace over ruin. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine can join NATO — if allies are willing to be bold. ​​Luke Coffey argues that NATO membership for Ukraine is essential for lasting peace and security in Eastern Europe, even if parts of Ukraine remain under Russian occupation. He suggests NATO can admit Ukraine by amending Article 6 to exclude occupied territories from Article 5 guarantees, similar to past precedents. Coffey emphasizes Ukraine’s potential pledge to resolve territorial disputes diplomatically, comparing it to West Germany’s NATO accession in 1954. He dismisses claims that territorial disputes block NATO membership, noting cases like Estonia and Croatia. Amending NATO’s approach would counter Russia’s tactic of using occupation to veto membership. Politico EU