Ukraine Update: Monday, Jan. 20, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

ANALYSIS–Why Biden’s Ukraine Win Was Zelensky’s Loss. President Joe Biden’s approach to the war in Ukraine focused on three objectives: ensuring Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign nation, maintaining unity among U.S. allies, and avoiding direct conflict with Russia. These goals, intentionally limited, avoided guarantees of regaining all occupied territories, including Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Despite providing $66 billion in military aid and a total of $183 billion in support, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized the U.S. for hesitating on sanctions, weapons supplies, and NATO membership. Biden’s decisions have evolved during his presidency, including allowing strikes deep into Russia and imposing sanctions on its energy sector. However, Zelensky’s broader demands, such as a NATO invitation, remain unmet. Biden emphasized that while Ukraine remains independent, the U.S. has not promised victory over Russia. For Zelensky, defeating Russia remains central, highlighting a disconnect between his vision and Biden’s restrained, legacy-focused strategy. Time

ANALYSIS–Trump Vowed to End the Ukraine War Before Taking Office. The War Rages On. Donald Trump’s campaign promise to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of his election has proven empty as he takes office with no progress made. Trump repeatedly claimed he could settle the war before assuming the presidency. Analysts suggest Trump’s approach signals prioritizing an end to the war over Ukraine’s victory, likely favoring Moscow. Trump has expressed urgency but offered no detailed plan, raising concerns over potential compromises, including territorial concessions to Russia. Ukraine demands security guarantees, reparations, and accountability for war crimes. Critics argue Trump undermines Ukraine’s position by dismissing the need for strength in negotiations. While Trump’s rhetoric stresses urgency, the complexity of the war makes his promises appear increasingly unrealistic. New York Times

Trump instructs aides to arrange a call with Putin ‘in coming days’ after the inauguration. President-elect Donald Trump plans to prioritize a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after his inauguration to discuss an in-person meeting aimed at ending the Ukraine war. While Trump had promised to resolve the war within a day of taking office, his team now seeks to develop a settlement plan within months. Talks would mark a departure from President Joe Biden’s approach, with Trump favoring direct engagement but offering limited details on arms support, NATO policy, or Ukraine’s rebuilding. CNN

Trump Again Vows To End Ukraine War. At a rally in Washington, D.C., on Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his vow to end the war in Ukraine without detailing his plan. Trump told the audience at the rally that he would stop the fighting between Ukraine and Russia, claiming his actions would also prevent World War III. Analysts remain skeptical, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives himself as winning and has little incentive to negotiate. The rally, held a day before Trump’s inauguration, emphasized his broader foreign policy goals. RFE/RL

Ukraine risks being ‘Trump’s Vietnam,’ says Steve Bannon. Steve Bannon warned that Donald Trump risks being drawn into Russia’s war on Ukraine, likening it to Richard Nixon’s Vietnam, due to resistance from the U.S. defense establishment and allies like Keith Kellogg. Bannon advocates cutting military aid to Kyiv and pressuring Volodymyr Zelensky for quick negotiations. He argues that Trump should tell Zelensky that “there’s a new sheriff in town, and we’re going to get a deal done and we’re going to get it done quickly.” Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, emphasizes maintaining aid and securing guarantees for Kyiv against further Russian aggression. Bannon fears delays in ending the war will deepen U.S. involvement in what he calls an unwinnable war, criticizing European leaders for relying on American resources while failing to bolster their defenses. “Europe has gotten away with early retirement and full health care because they don’t pay for their own defense,” he protested. He is no fan of Vladimir Putin but says Europe doesn’t behave as if it regards the Kremlin leader as a threat. “Putin’s a bad guy. He’s a very bad guy. The KGB are bad guys. But I don’t stay up at night worrying about Russian influence on Europe. No. 1, their military hasn’t even got to Kyiv. In three years, they couldn’t get there. They haven’t taken Kharkiv even. You know why I don’t stay awake at night? Because the Europeans don’t stay awake at night. They don’t consider Russia a real threat. If they did they would throw a lot more money and troops into the game,” Bannon said. His lobbying underscores internal MAGA divisions over Trump’s Ukraine policy. Politico EU

Ukraine warns Trump that early peace talks would be catastrophic. Ukrainian officials warn that pushing for premature peace talks with Russia under President-elect Donald Trump could severely weaken their position. President Volodymyr Zelensky stresses the need for continued military aid to escalate strikes on targets inside Russia, asserting that negotiations should occur only when Moscow faces significant losses.“The bottom line is that there are no simple, quick decisions to be made here,” senior presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said. “The initiative has to be controlled. It must not be given away to Russia,” Zelensky’s government has intensified lobbying efforts in Washington, including nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize to secure his support. Officials fear Trump’s focus on rapid negotiations could mirror historical appeasement failures, like Neville Chamberlain’s concession of Czech territory. Government adviser and former member of parliament Olena Sotnyk said NATO membership is Ukraine’s only sustainable security guarantee. “This step is vital to deter future Russian aggression,” she said. The Telegraph

Ukraine opens a new front against Russia – flattering Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has actively sought to align with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, emphasizing his strength and ability to secure peace in Ukraine’s war with Russia. Facing military and territorial challenges, Zelensky’s approach includes flattering Trump, offering lucrative economic deals like a critical minerals agreement, and proposing post-war Ukrainian troop contributions to NATO. While Ukraine’s strategy aims to maintain U.S. support, Trump’s unpredictability leaves its effectiveness uncertain. Analysts note Zelensky’s efforts are driven by necessity, viewing flattery as essential to securing a more favorable outcome for Ukraine. CNN

Could Donald Trump’s influence over Vladimir Putin end the Ukraine war? Donald Trump’s unpredictable, forceful style could bring fresh dynamics to Ukraine peace talks, enabling novel compromises. His envoy, General Keith Kellogg, now targets a 100-day negotiation timeline as Trump seeks a diplomatic “win” without granting Vladimir Putin a victory. Given his past admiration for Putin and reluctance to endorse Ukraine’s full sovereignty, Kyiv remains wary of Trump’s approach. U.S. military aid has been pivotal for Ukraine, and any reduction would devastate its defense. Western allies cannot fill a U.S. void. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, previously firm on reclaiming all Russian-occupied territories, has hinted at freezing the frontlines if Ukraine gains NATO membership. However, Trump has voiced understanding of Putin’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. A potential compromise could involve deploying NATO troops, including British forces, to secure a ceasefire and deter future Russian aggression. The outcome remains uncertain, with Trump’s decisions likely shaping Ukraine’s future. Sky News

Ukrainians are preparing for Trump’s presidency. As Donald Trump prepares to assume the U.S. presidency, some Ukrainians are anxious about his vow to end the war with Russia quickly. Ukrainian officials, including Oleksandr Merezhko, have sought to align with Trump, emphasizing the need for a peace deal that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Public fears persist over potential compromises, as Trump’s admiration for Vladimir Putin and past comments suggest a deal favorable to Moscow. While outgoing President Joe Biden’s military aid provides a buffer, Ukrainians are wary of reduced U.S. support under Trump, which could pressure Kyiv into making concessions or risk escalating guerrilla warfare. The Globe and Mail New York Times

‘I nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize to save Ukraine.’ Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, nominated Donald Trump for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, aiming to foster goodwill with the incoming U.S. president amid concerns about his past skepticism of Ukraine. While Merezhko acknowledges a psychological element to appealing to Trump’s ego, he cites Trump’s role in the Abraham Accords as justification. Merezhko hopes the gesture will encourage Trump to pursue peace in Ukraine under international law, avoiding territorial concessions. His outreach includes building ties with Trump’s advisers and Republican allies to counter potential policies favoring reduced U.S. support for Kyiv. The Telegraph

Russian strikes kill six in Ukraine, including in Kyiv. Russian forces targeted Ukraine with drones and ballistic missiles on Saturday, killing six people and injuring at least 17 across multiple regions. In Kyiv, three fatalities and three injuries were reported as missiles struck the Shevchenkivskyi district, damaging infrastructure, vehicles, and the city’s oldest McDonald’s near Lukianivska metro station. Water supplies were disrupted due to a ruptured main. Zaporizhzhia endured another missile strike, leaving one dead and 12 injured, while Russian shelling in Kherson killed two more. Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 24 drones and two missiles out of the 43 launched overnight. Russia claimed its strikes targeted military-industrial sites in retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod. President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated calls for global unity and sanctions against Russia, emphasizing the need for collective pressure. Cleanup operations in Kyiv continued, and McDonald’s pledged to restore its damaged restaurant. Air raid alerts persisted into the evening. Reuters Washington Post Kyiv Independent New York Times Kyiv Independent

SBU detains metro engineer who allegedly directed Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Saturday it had detained a Kyiv Metro engineer accused of leading a spy network that directed Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Recruited by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in 2015, the engineer allegedly built a network tracking Ukrainian military movements to coordinate attacks. Recruits included a Kharkiv resident and a transport driver who identified military checkpoints and troop locations. The leader personally directed strikes on Kyiv, with intercepted conversations and seized cell phones providing evidence. Two suspects were charged with high treason, facing life imprisonment, while a third remains at large abroad. Kyiv Independent

Dnipropetrovsk firm helped Russia build nuclear weapons labs, SBU says. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Saturday that a Dnipropetrovsk Oblast company supplied metal products to Russia used in constructing nuclear weapons laboratories. The firm allegedly shipped stainless steel profiles, routed through a Middle Eastern third party, to the Russian Institute for Nuclear Research, which develops nuclear-powered missile designs. Evidence, including documents and digital data, was seized during searches of the company and suspects’ homes. The company’s owner and three employees have been charged with aiding an aggressor state, facing up to 12 years in prison and property confiscation if convicted. Kyiv Independent

Former pro-Russian Ukrainian lawmaker charged with treason resurfaces in China. Former pro-Russian Ukrainian lawmaker Yevheniy Murayev resurfaced on Friday in a two-hour propaganda interview, his first public appearance since fleeing Ukraine in May 2022. Now living in Beijing, Murayev blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion, opposed Ukraine’s European Union and NATO aspirations, and criticized Western sanctions on Moscow. A former leader of the banned Nashi party and Nash TV channel, Murayev denied plans to run for office or return to Ukraine soon. The U.K. previously warned Russia intended to install him as a puppet leader in Kyiv. Murayev faces high treason charges in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Ex-MP, leader of Russia-affiliated Ukrainian Orthodox Church charged with treason. Former Ukrainian lawmaker and businessman Vadym Novynskyi has been charged in absentia with high treason and incitement to religious hatred, Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) said Saturday. A former member of the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc and sponsor of the Moscow-affiliated Ukrainian Orthodox Church, Novynskyi reportedly promoted Russian narratives since 2014. He allegedly worked closely with Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, following his directives to foster pro-Russian sentiments and justify aggression. Sanctioned in 2022, Novynskyi fled abroad after resigning from parliament during Russia’s full-scale invasion. He faces up to 15 years in prison and possible property confiscation if convicted. Kyiv Independent

Russia used chemical weapons 434 times in December, Ukraine says. The General Staff of Ukraine reported on Saturday that Russian forces used chemical weapons 434 times in December 2024, with 5,389 cases recorded since February 2023. These included banned K-51 and RG-VO munitions and other unspecified toxic agents, violating international warfare laws. A Kyiv Independent investigation revealed increasing gas attacks, confirmed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which identified riot control agent CS as one of the chemicals used. Over 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been hospitalized for chemical poisoning, with three fatalities. In December 2024, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) assassinated Russian chemical defense leader Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in retaliation. Kyiv Independent

Russia launched nearly 550 drones, 60 missiles, over 660 aerial bombs against Ukraine in a week, Zelensky says. Russia launched 550 drones, 60 missiles, and over 660 aerial bombs against Ukraine in a week, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Monday. Ukrainian forces intercepted 33 missiles and 311 drones, while 136 drones failed to reach targets. Zelensky emphasized the need for strengthened air defenses, including more Patriot systems and long-range capabilities, to protect civilians and infrastructure. Ukraine is also advancing its domestic air defense development, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Kyiv Independent

Russian trainee pilots appear to be hunting Ukrainian civilians. Kherson, a southern Ukrainian city liberated in 2022, is enduring relentless Russian drone attacks targeting civilians. Over 1,000 strikes since mid-2024 have killed 36 and injured over 500, hitting homes, hospitals, and vehicles with makeshift munitions. Survivors live in fear, avoiding roads and public spaces. The oncological hospital was destroyed in December, following repeated attacks on staff and ambulances. Human Rights Watch suggests these strikes, likely war crimes, aim to depopulate the area and train drone pilots. Rising artillery strikes hint at possible Russian plans for a renewed offensive or buffer zone near the Dnipro River. The Economist

Ukraine police launch a nationwide search for draft dodgers. Ukrainian police have launched a nationwide crackdown on draft evasion, conducting searches in 19 regions to bolster military ranks. This follows an earlier campaign targeting 600 locations. The mobilization effort aims to address manpower shortages, with the average soldier age at 43, as Ukraine resists U.S. pressure to lower the draft age from 25 to 18. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected U.S. calls for younger recruits, emphasizing that manpower cannot replace adequate weapons and training. Despite lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 in 2024, adding 50,000 troops, Ukraine still faces recruitment shortfalls. Panic among draft-age men has led to escapes via dangerous smuggling routes to Europe. As Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, pressure to meet U.S. demands is expected to increase. Zelensky continues lobbying for Western arms, warning that conscripting younger men without proper resources offers no advantage. The Telegraph

Protesters in Kyiv demand answers about the location of POWs and missing soldiers. Thousands gathered in Kyiv on Saturday to demand more government action to locate missing soldiers and secure the release of prisoners of war held in Russia. Protesters expressed frustration over poor communication and a lack of clarity about the fate of their loved ones. The rally, marked by a minute of silence and the national anthem, follows semi-regular protests on the issue. Ukraine estimates 37,000 individuals, including civilians, are missing, and recent POW exchanges indicate over 8,000 Ukrainians are detained in Russia. On Jan. 15, the latest exchange involved 150 personnel from each side. Euronews

A French-sponsored Ukrainian army brigade has been badly botched. The French-sponsored 155th Ukrainian army brigade, unveiled in Normandy in June 2024, faced severe issues upon deployment, revealing critical flaws in Ukraine’s military command. Despite France spending $930 million to equip and train the brigade with Caesar howitzers, armored vehicles, and anti-tank missiles, Ukraine failed to provide essential drones and electronic warfare capabilities. Mismanagement led to 1,700 troops going AWOL, desertions in France, and the brigade splintering upon return, with specialists reassigned to infantry units. Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian journalist, highlighted systemic flaws in Ukraine’s mobilization and command structure. Rising desertions and ignored internal criticisms underscore deeper issues. President Volodymyr Zelensky launched an investigation to address French concerns, while General Mykhailo Drapatyi vowed to reform the officer corps. Critics argue resources should bolster existing brigades rather than create new ones. Despite challenges, the brigade’s commander notes improving morale, calling it a “sense of brotherhood” forged in battle. The Economist

Ukraine’s 48th Separate Assault Battalion denounces commander replacement. Soldiers from Ukraine’s 48th Separate Assault Battalion protested the replacement of their commander, Lenur Islyamov, in a video to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Stationed in Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub in Donetsk Oblast, the battalion praised Islyamov for leading 90% volunteer forces to successful operations. They warned his removal undermines trust and combat effectiveness. Similar appeals occurred in 2024, highlighting tensions over leadership changes amid Ukraine’s defense efforts. The military leadership has yet to respond. Kyiv Independent

What the North Koreans took into battle against Ukraine. Recovered items from North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region reveal their training, motivation, and challenges in adapting to modern warfare. Ukrainian troops discovered documents including Russian phrases phonetically written in Korean, New Year’s messages from Kim Jong Un, and combat notes, providing rare insights into North Korea’s role in the war. The soldiers, reportedly better equipped and more disciplined than their Russian counterparts, have suffered heavy casualties, with 4,000 killed or wounded, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite initial tactical missteps, North Korean forces are learning to adapt, using smaller units to evade Ukrainian drones and artillery. Documents suggest they view the war as a valuable opportunity for gaining battlefield experience, with Ukraine warning of potential future implications for conflicts with the West. The presence of North Korean troops, unacknowledged by Russia or Pyongyang, underscores the war’s expanding international dimensions as Donald Trump prepares to reassume the U.S. presidency. Washington Post

African troops ‘forced to Ukraine frontlines’ while Russians stay in camp. Russia has allegedly exploited African recruits in Ukraine, deploying them on high-risk frontlines while Russian troops remain in safer roles. Many Africans, lured by false promises of lucrative jobs, were instead coerced into military service, often with no training or proper equipment. Samuel, a Cameroonian recruit, described harsh conditions, including forced frontline deployment, minimal support, and threats of torture for refusal. Recruits often face severe casualties, with many resorting to desperate measures to survive. Reports of coerced recruitment, including from prisons and rebel groups, highlight systemic exploitation. Samuel hopes to deter others from falling victim to such deceptions. Radio France International

150,000 Russian soldiers killed fighting Ukraine in 2024, Syrskyi says. Russian forces suffered their heaviest losses in 2024, with 150,000 soldiers killed, bringing total casualties since the full-scale invasion to 818,740, including those killed, wounded, captured, or missing, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on Sunday. November and December marked record-high losses, with a peak of 2,030 troops in one day. While Russia gained ground in eastern Ukraine, these advances came at significant cost. Ukrainian losses total 43,000 soldiers, and Russian casualties are projected to surpass 1 million within six months. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 2, injure 5 over past day. Russian strikes across Ukraine in the past day killed two civilians and injured five others, including a 14-year-old girl in Kharkiv Oblast, authorities said Monday. Attacks targeted 32 settlements in Kherson Oblast and multiple areas in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces shot down 93 drones overnight, with 47 more lost to electronic warfare. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s military chief says Russia has ‘practically halved’ artillery ammo usage after its production lines and depots were hit. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Sunday that Russian artillery ammo usage has “practically halved” due to sustained Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots, factories, and oil facilities. Previously firing up to 40,000 rounds daily, Russia’s reduced output reflects Ukraine’s long-range capabilities targeting key sites deep inside Russian territory, including a significant September strike destroying 30,000 tons of ammunition. Meanwhile, Russia’s defense budget has surged to $131 billion for 2025, nearly a third of its federal spending, underscoring its efforts to sustain the war. Business Insider

Fire reported near aviation plant in Russia’s Tatarstan amid drone attack. A fire erupted in Kazan, Tatarstan, following a reported Ukrainian drone attack targeting the Kazan Aviation Plant, which produces Tu-160 and Tu-22 aircraft. Explosions were heard around 5:30 a.m. Monday, with drones also targeting nearby fuel tanks at Borisoglebskoye airfield. Flights at Kazan International Airport and nearby airports were suspended. Tatarstan officials claimed no damage occurred, though the Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims. Similar Ukrainian attacks targeted Russian oil depots on Saturday. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine hits 2 oil depots in Russia overnight on Saturday. Ukrainian forces targeted oil depots in Russia’s Tula and Kaluga oblasts overnight on January 18, according to military intelligence. The strikes aimed to disrupt Russia’s oil industry and supply chain supporting its war effort. In Tula Oblast, drones reportedly caused multiple hits, igniting a fire at a fuel storage facility. In Kaluga Oblast, a depot owned by a Rosneft subsidiary was also set ablaze. No casualties were reported, but videos showed significant damage. Kyiv Independent

Russia says Ukraine attacked again with US ATACMS. Ukraine launched six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles at Russia’s Belgorod region, according to Moscow, which claimed Friday all were intercepted without casualties or damage. Russia vowed retaliation and has previously responded to ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes with its Oreshnik hypersonic missile. Over the past week, Russia said it shot down 12 ATACMS, eight Storm Shadows, 48 U.S. HIMARS rockets, seven French-made Hammer guided bombs, and 747 drones. It reported for the first time that Russian forces had captured the village of Slovianka in eastern Ukraine, one of eight Ukrainian settlements it said had been taken in the past week. Meanwhile, a Russian missile strike killed four and injured seven in Kryvyi Rih, damaging an educational facility. Reuters

Ukrainian defense forces have withdrawn from a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, after Russian troops gained control of the site. Ukrainian Air Force units launched an airstrike against Russian forces attempting to secure the plant, inflicting losses. The plant had been a key defensive position, and its loss has pushed Ukrainian forces to retreat into heavily damaged residential areas. Ukrainian forces now control around 30% of Chasiv Yar, according to frontline sources and military spokesperson Dmytro Zaporozhets. Ukrainska Pravda

Zelensky hosts Slovakia’s opposition leader in Kyiv amid a spat with Fico. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosted Slovak opposition leader Michal Simecka in Kyiv on Friday, discussing energy security amid tensions with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Fico, upset over Ukraine’s refusal to extend a Russian gas transit deal, claims the move has hurt Slovakia’s economy and threatened to cut aid to Ukraine. Zelenskiy invited Fico to Kyiv for talks, but Fico proposed a meeting at the border instead. Both leaders are expected to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos soon. Reuters

Germany’s Scholz does not expect the US to stop Ukraine aid under Trump. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference in Berlin on Friday that he does not expect the U.S. to halt military aid to Ukraine under President-elect Donald Trump. Scholz emphasized ongoing “intensive” diplomatic dialogue and expressed optimism for continued U.S.-Europe cooperation in supporting Ukraine. Reuters

What has the UK promised Ukraine in Starmer’s 100-year deal? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a 100-year partnership with Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv last week, committing £3 billion annually in military aid, bolstering maritime security in the Baltic and Black Seas, and funding a £40 million economic recovery program. The agreement also includes support for technology, education, and cultural exchanges while maintaining Ukraine’s security against Russian aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the pact as a model for future international partnerships. Discussions on peacekeeping troops remain ongoing without definitive commitments. Al Jazeera

Starmer urges world leaders to ‘double down’ on support for Ukraine. During a visit to Warsaw on Friday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the UK’s and Poland’s shared “unbreakable commitment” to NATO and Ukraine, highlighting the importance of securing peace on Ukraine’s terms. Speaking alongside Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Starmer called on global leaders to intensify support for Ukraine, stressing the need to bolster Ukraine’s strength to deter future Russian aggression. This followed Starmer’s earlier meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where he pledged a “closer than ever” partnership. The Guardian

Russia says it will counter any UK-Ukraine cooperation in the Sea of Azov. Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership agreement reached on Jan. 16, particularly its plans for military cooperation in the Sea of Azov, which Russia claims as its “internal sea.” Moscow said it would resist any British involvement in the area. The agreement, signed during British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Kyiv visit, includes strengthening security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov seas and providing strong security guarantees for Ukraine. Reuters

After Her Photo Went Viral, Maria Zaytsava Was Killed Fighting For Ukraine. Maria Zaytsava, whose photo symbolized resistance during Belarus’s 2020 protests, was killed near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on January 17, 2025. Gravely injured during the Minsk protests at 19, Zaytsava recovered with Czech aid before joining Ukraine’s Foreign Legion in 2023 as a medic and translator. For her, Belarus’s fight against dictatorship and Ukraine’s battle against Russia were intertwined struggles for freedom. Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya called Zaytsava, who returned to the front despite earlier injuries, “an icon of our revolution.” Her sacrifice underscores the enduring cost of resistance against authoritarian regimes. RFE/RL

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Friday, Jan. 17-Sunday, Jan. 19. SUNDAY – Ukrainian General Staff reported 434 uses of banned chemical munitions by Russian forces in December 2024, adding to 5,389 documented cases since February 2023. Through volunteer military detachments, Russia recruits women into its armed forces to bolster manpower. SATURDAY–Ukrainian forces targeted oil depots in Russia’s Kaluga and Tula oblasts on Jan. 17–18, causing fires and disrupting fuel supplies. Ukraine struck Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Kherson and Donetsk oblasts on the same night. Russia consolidated forces from the 2nd, 41st, and 51st combined arms armies (CAAs) to intensify offensive operations near Pokrovsk. NATO officials are planning a joint exercise with Georgia for March 2025, involving Azerbaijan as a participant and Armenia as an observer. FRIDAY– Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on Jan. 17, focusing on defense cooperation, economic ties, and transportation development. The agreement lacks a mutual defense clause, highlighting Russia’s focus on manpower needs through its partnership with North Korea rather than broader military engagements. Russian forces seized Vremivka on Jan. 17, advancing their efforts to envelop Velyka Novosilka and pressure Ukrainian defenses. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Jan. 17 call with Putin reflected Russian concerns over Armenia’s growing Western ties amid deepening European Union relations. Declassified US documents reveal substantial American investment in Ukraine’s drone production since 2022, benefiting both Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities and U.S. defense innovation.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukraine regained positions in Kharkiv, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion. How ‘Mild Bill’ Burns led a covert CIA campaign in Ukraine. David Ignatius highlights CIA Director William Burns’s pivotal role in supporting Ukraine during its war with Russia. Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow, has long anticipated the conflict, viewing it as a continuation of a decades-long duel with Vladimir Putin. Since the war began, Burns has made 14 visits to Ukraine, even traveling to the front lines. His testimony on Ukraine’s ammunition shortages helped secure vital U.S. aid. Ignatius portrays Burns as a modest yet extraordinary leader who has steadfastly backed Ukraine, emphasizing the void his departure may leave. Washington Post

Opinion: Is Ukraine Losing the War? Alina Frolova argues that Ukraine is not losing the war despite challenges, as it demonstrates resilience and strategic advantages in key areas. While Western discourse focuses on visible land operations, Ukraine outperforms Russia in air, sea, space, cyber, and logistical domains. Russia faces unsustainable losses, dwindling defense production, and economic fragility, while Ukraine benefits from international support, increasing domestic defense production, and economic stability. Frolova emphasizes that Ukraine’s success depends on maintaining Western support and countering narratives of inevitable Russian victory. Center for European Policy Analysis

Opinion: First Gaza, Now Ukraine? Trump Has to Stand Up to Putin. Marc Champion argues that Donald Trump must strengthen Ukraine’s position to force Vladimir Putin into genuine negotiations rather than pursuing a premature deal that could amount to capitulation. He highlights Ukraine’s manpower and resource challenges, worsened by delayed Western aid and high battlefield attrition, which have strained its ability to maintain defense. Champion emphasizes that reversing this decline throuThe Cipher Brief gh increased support, including leveraging Ukraine’s growing domestic arms production, is essential to achieving a sustainable peace. Without these measures, easing sanctions or offering concessions to Putin risks emboldening Moscow rather than ending the war. Bloomberg