Ukraine Update: Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Putin Would Demand Ukraine Never Join NATO in Any Trump Talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly intends to demand Ukraine remain neutral, cut military ties with NATO, and significantly reduce its army in any negotiations with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported, citing “people familiar with the matter.” Putin insists Kyiv must renounce NATO ambitions and has proposed enshrining neutrality in Ukraine’s constitution, aligning with Kremlin ally Konstantin Malofeev’s view that Ukraine should have “a tiny army…not enough to fight with Russia.” The Kremlin’s position is that while individual NATO members may continue to send arms to Ukraine under bilateral security agreements, any such weapons should not be used against Russia or to recapture territory, said one person familiar with Moscow’s preparations for possible negotiations. Russia also seeks to retain control of the 20% of Ukrainian territory it occupies, including Crimea, though it may consider territorial swaps. The question of security guarantees is unresolved. Trump’s aides have shown limited interest in binding U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled openness to ceasefire talks if NATO protects the Ukrainian-controlled parts of the nation. Ukraine worries a pause in fighting could allow Russia to regroup, underscoring its need for continuing Western military aid. Bloomberg

Rubio, Trump’s Pick for Secretary Of State, Says Russia and Ukraine Must Make Concessions. Marco Rubio, nominated as U.S. secretary of state by President-elect Donald Trump, argued during his Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday that both Ukraine and Russia must make concessions to Moscow to end Russia’s war. Rubio deemed it “unrealistic” to expect Ukrainian forces to push Russian troops back to pre-invasion lines, citing the disparity in population and resources. “Ukraine isn’t running out of money; it is running out of people,” he remarked, highlighting the toll on Ukraine’s smaller population compared to Russia. Rubio criticized the Biden administration’s commitment to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” calling it “not a realistic or prudent position.” While emphasizing that Russia also must make concessions, Rubio admitted peace negotiations would be challenging. “This is not going to be an easy endeavor… it’s going to require bold diplomacy,” he stated, aligning with Trump’s pledge to prioritize ending the war swiftly. RFE/RL NBC News

Trump advisers concede Ukraine peace deal is months away. Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump acknowledge that resolving Russia’s war on Ukraine will take months, contradicting Trump’s campaign promise of ending it on Day One. Retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, suggested a 100-day timeline, but experts like former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst deem it “way, way too optimistic.” Trump’s rhetoric has softened since the election, emphasizing the complexity of achieving peace. His team is exploring proposals such as freezing battle lines and offering Ukraine security guarantees while excluding NATO membership, but progress has been slow amid Russia’s mixed signals and battlefield advances. Trump’s planned meeting with Vladimir Putin is expected shortly after his inauguration. Reuters

Trump’s pick for budget director won’t say whether he would release Ukraine aid. During his confirmation hearing Wednesday, Donald Trump’s nominee for budget director, Russell Vought, declined to fully commit to releasing the unspent $3.8 billion in congressionally approved military aid for Ukraine. Questioned about his role in withholding $214 million in Ukraine aid in 2019, which led to Trump’s first impeachment, Vought emphasized upholding the law but avoided specific commitments on Ukraine policy. Vought also hinted at potential budget cuts targeting discretionary programs to address the national debt, drawing criticism over his stance on fiscal priorities and presidential authority. Associated Press

Zelensky says that Ukraine’s military now totals 880,000 soldiers, facing 600,000 Russian troops. During a Wednesday joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in Warsaw that Ukraine’s military now totals 880,000 soldiers, opposing 600,000 Russian troops concentrated in key areas. He noted Russia’s localized numerical advantage and acknowledged Ukraine’s ongoing manpower challenges, particularly in infantry. Zelensky highlighted progress in domestic arms production, now covering 33-34% of Ukraine’s needs, compared to under 10% before the full-scale invasion. He also addressed a recent scandal involving reassigning Air Force personnel to Ground Forces, emphasizing the need for mobilization reforms to sustain Ukraine’s defense efforts. Kyiv Independent

US encounters European skepticism in last-ditch push to seize $300 billion in Russian assets for Ukraine leverage. In its final days, the Biden administration is pressing European allies to support seizing $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets, placing them in escrow as leverage for Ukraine. While the U.S. sees this as a critical bargaining tool, European leaders remain skeptical, citing potential violations of international law. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized leaving the Trump administration in a “position of strength” for possible negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky advocated using the funds to bolster Ukraine’s military, arguing, “We don’t need gifts from the United States. Take Russian money… it will be very good for your industry.” Although $50 billion in loans, funded by interest on the frozen assets, has been approved by G-7 nations, broader European support to seize the principal remains elusive. Meanwhile, the Biden team has expedited $500 million in weapons to Ukraine, ensuring unspent funds and resources transition to the incoming Trump administration. Kyiv Independent

UK’s Starmer arrives in Ukraine for security talks with a pledge to help guarantee its security. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Kyiv on Thursday to pledge a “100-Year Partnership” treaty with Ukraine, covering defense, science, energy, and trade. The treaty aims to ensure Ukraine’s security and prevent future Russian aggression. Britain has pledged $16 billion in aid and trained 50,000 Ukrainian troops. Starmer announced another $49 million for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery. The treaty includes defense cooperation, maritime security, and tracking stolen Ukrainian grain. Talks also addressed a proposed French-led ceasefire monitoring plan, which Zelensky insists must include a NATO membership timeline. Starmer’s cautious approach to Ukraine has raised concerns about Britain’s diminishing leadership role among Kyiv’s allies. Critics argue that Starmer aligns too closely with U.S. President Joe Biden’s measured strategy, frustrating Ukrainian officials seeking decisive support. While his government maintains £3 billion in annual military aid, skepticism persists over his leadership. Starmer’s focus on broader fiscal constraints and his overtures to China amid tensions over its support for Russia further complicate perceptions. Associated Press Bloomberg Politico EU

Italy’s Defense Minister Crosetto arrives in Kyiv. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto arrived in Kyiv on January 16 for institutional meetings, coinciding with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to sign a “100-Year Partnership” with Ukraine. Crosetto’s agenda remains undisclosed, but discussions may include Italy’s potential involvement in a peacekeeping mission, an idea he has supported. The visits occur shortly before Donald Trump’s presidency, which could influence the Russia-Ukraine war, with Trump favoring negotiations and European-led peacekeeping efforts. Italy, a key supporter of Ukraine, has provided 10 military aid packages since 2022, including advanced SAMP/T defenses, and extended its assistance program through 2025. Kyiv Independent

Germany’s Scholz is under political pressure over the €3B Ukraine aid package. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces political challenges over a €3 billion Ukraine military aid package amid an impending federal election and fiscal constraints. Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) trails in the polls, with core voters skeptical of anti-Russia measures. While Scholz insists on funding the aid via new debt, other parties resist further borrowing. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains optimistic about resolving the issue, but procedural hurdles could delay approval until after the February 23 election. Critics, including Friedrich Merz of the CDU, argue that weakening support for Ukraine prolongs the war. Cross-party support exists, but political divisions persist. Politico EU

Inside Ukraine’s Last Stand at a Vital Coal Mine. Ukraine’s last operational coking coal mine, near Pokrovsk, has shut down after enduring relentless Russian attacks. This vital facility, integral to Ukraine’s steel industry and the war effort, produced materials for railways, body armor, and Patriot system components. Miners faced mounting danger, including strikes that killed four workers and shelling that damaged infrastructure. By Christmas Eve, production halted after a strike on the power substation. Explosives were used to prevent Russian forces from exploiting the mine’s tunnels. The closure jeopardizes steel production, which is projected to drop by over half in 2025, straining Ukraine’s economy and defense capabilities. Most miners have relocated. New York Times

Russia’s latest missile barrage at Ukraine targets gas infrastructure. Russia launched over 40 missiles and 70 drones at Ukraine early Wednesday, targeting energy infrastructure in freezing conditions. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 30 missiles and 47 drones, while electronic warfare redirected 27 drones. According to Naftogaz, strikes hit gas facilities in the Lviv and Kharkiv regions, damaging energy supplies but avoiding outages. Residents in Kyiv sought shelter in metro stations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated calls for faster Western air defense systems delivery and proposed local production licenses. The attacks, part of Russia’s intensified energy warfare since March 2024, highlight ongoing vulnerabilities as Ukraine endures another winter at war. Reuters Associated Press

Russia planned ‘acts of terrorism’ in the air, Polish PM says. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday that Russia planned “acts of terrorism” targeting air operations against Poland and other countries. Speaking after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw, Tusk referred to recent security information confirming these fears but provided no specific details. Security officials have linked explosive parcels at logistics depots in Britain, Germany, and Poland in July to a suspected Russian plot to target cargo flights to the United States. While Russia denies involvement, Tusk’s remarks highlight growing concerns about potential airborne threats attributed to Russian operatives. Reuters

Polish leader vows to use EU presidency to speed up Ukraine’s membership quest. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pledged Wednesday in Warsaw to prioritize Ukraine’s European Union membership during Poland’s EU presidency. With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Tusk promised to break the current standstill and accelerate Ukraine’s accession process. The announcement followed an agreement allowing Poland to exhume victims of World War II-era massacres by Ukrainian nationalists in Volhynia, a long-standing point of tension. Zelensky emphasized the importance of unity against Russia, describing it as the main threat. Tusk also highlighted efforts to balance historical reconciliation with Poland’s national interests, marking a key moment in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Associated Press

Zelensky: Europe has no chance against Russia without the Ukrainian military. During a visit to Warsaw on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Polish media that Europe cannot withstand Russia without Ukraine’s military. “Without the Ukrainian army, Europe has no chance against Russia today. Russia has more weapons, more people, and is more brutal,” Zelensky said. He urged the European Union to take a stricter stance, increase arms production, and adopt greater pragmatism to “get ahead” of Vladimir Putin. Zelensky reiterated the need for robust security guarantees to achieve peace in 2025. Ukrainska Pravda

Why Ukraine’s long-delayed missile production ambitions have yet to get off the ground. Ukraine’s efforts to build a domestic missile production industry have been hampered by war-related challenges, corruption, and Russian airstrikes targeting key facilities. Experts remain skeptical despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ambitious goal of manufacturing 3,000 missiles in 2025. Fabian Hoffmann of the Oslo Nuclear Project noted that Ukraine’s production capacities remain limited, with only a few missiles made monthly. The Neptune cruise missile, initially developed to target ships, has seen limited use, while the Thunder 2 ballistic missile passed initial testing in 2024 but lacks evidence of battlefield deployment. Other projects like Korshun and Vilcha have stalled or faced setbacks due to supply chain disruptions. Michael Duitsman from the Middlebury Institute attributes delays to persistent Russian bombardments of factories, such as the Motor Sich plant in Zaporizhzhia. While missile development symbolizes Ukraine’s independence, analysts caution against overestimating its immediate impact on the battlefield. Kyiv Independent

German Self-Propelled Howitzers are Getting Ready to Roll into Ukraine. Germany has delivered the first six RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) to Ukraine, part of a larger pledge of 54 units, to bolster Kyiv’s artillery capabilities. These initial deliveries will be used for training Ukrainian personnel on the advanced weapon system. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius emphasized Germany’s commitment to European security, stating, “Ukraine can count on us.” The RCH 155, developed by Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, features remote operation, a firing range of up to 54 km, and the ability to fire while on the move. Ukrainian Ambassador Oleksii Makeiev praised Germany’s support, affirming, “We need allies, not mediators.” The National Interest

Russia and Ukraine swap 25 POWs each in UAE-mediated exchange. Russia and Ukraine exchanged 25 prisoners of war each Wednesday in a swap mediated by the United Arab Emirates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that many of the freed Ukrainian POWs suffered severe injuries, including amputations and explosion-related wounds, and will receive medical care. Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that its returned POWs, currently in Belarus, will undergo treatment and rehabilitation in Russian medical facilities. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to the UAE for facilitating the exchange, which included Ukrainian prisoners aged 24 to 60. The UAE has played a recurring role in brokering similar exchanges during the war. Reuters

Ukrainian paratroopers capture 27 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian paratroopers captured 27 Russian soldiers, including officers and marines, during operations in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Troops announced on Thursday. The troops urged more Russians to surrender, promising humane treatment under international law. Ukraine has been fighting in Kursk since August 2024, aiming to strengthen its negotiation leverage. This comes after Ukraine’s National Guard captured 23 Russian soldiers near Toretsk and a recent prisoner exchange on Jan. 15, which freed 25 Ukrainians, including Azovstal defenders. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine captures 23 Russian soldiers in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s Azov Brigade captured 23 Russian soldiers near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast, some surrendering willingly while others were found hiding or detained during assaults. The National Guard of Ukraine confirmed Wednesday the prisoners are in satisfactory condition and will be exchanged for Ukrainian defenders. On January 15, Ukraine secured the release of 25 POWs, including Azovstal defenders and troops from key frontlines in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainians divided over what peace with Russia should look like, a new poll reveals. A European Council on Foreign Relations poll published Wednesday reveals no consensus among Ukrainians on a potential peace deal with Russia. While 47% favor a compromise settlement, expectations for outright victory have fallen to 34%, down from 58% in May 2024. Conducted across 24 countries, the survey also highlights mixed views on incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s role in peace talks. Ukrainians are divided: 39% believe Trump will make peace more likely, 35% think the opposite, and 26% foresee no impact. Trump’s nominee for Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, emphasizes Trump’s intent to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty. Kyiv Independent

Appointment of Ukrainian judge who visited Russia and occupied Crimea triggers criticism. The appointment of Ukrainian judge Oleksandra Shulika, who visited Russia and occupied Crimea between 2014 and 2019, has drawn sharp criticism from judicial watchdogs. Mykhailo Zhernakov of the Dejure Foundation condemned the decision, highlighting ongoing ties to Russia within Ukraine’s judiciary despite reforms. Ukraine’s High Council of Justice, which made the appointment, faces scrutiny for alleged corruption and inconsistent enforcement of guidelines banning officials with foreign citizenship or links to Russia. Past scandals, including Bohdan Lvov’s Russian citizenship case, underscore persistent challenges in judicial reform. Kyiv Independent

Russia Claims It Damaged Gas Storage Facility in Ukraine. Russia claimed it damaged a major gas storage facility in Ukraine’s Lviv region during drone and missile strikes early Wednesday targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Moscow cited retaliation for Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian energy sites, including a gas compressor station critical to TurkStream flows. Ukraine’s Naftogaz confirmed the strike but reported uninterrupted gas supplies, with repairs underway. This escalation follows Kyiv’s suspension of Russian gas transit and intensified strikes on energy targets in both countries this week. Bloomberg

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 15. Ukrainian drones and artillery provide tactical advantages on the frontline, effectively targeting Russian tanks and armored vehicles. Transnistria’s Russian-backed leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, announced on Wednesday that Russia will provide gas as “humanitarian aid,” excluding the rest of Moldova. Armenia strengthened ties with the West by launching the US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission, sparking Russian criticism over its shift toward European integration. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Wednesday that 600,000 Russian troops are active in Ukraine, with localized concentrations providing them some numerical advantages.

Battlefield update: Russia advanced in Borova, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk, maintaining its focus on eastern Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: China Is Just Fine with North Korean Troops in Ukraine. Jacob Stokes argues that China supports North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine because it bolsters Moscow without directly implicating Beijing. North Korea’s military assistance, including troops, aids Russia at a critical time, aligning with China’s goal of preventing a Russian defeat. This strategy allows Beijing to avoid direct military support and Western reprisals. China benefits from closer ties among authoritarian regimes while maintaining its senior role over Russia and North Korea. Stokes suggests that U.S. efforts should focus on exploiting friction points between Moscow and Pyongyang rather than persuading Beijing to intervene. Foreign Policy