Ukraine Update: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump’s Treasury pick says US should boost sanctions on Russian oil to end war in Ukraine. Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, called for intensified sanctions on Russian oil to pressure Moscow into negotiating an end to the war with Ukraine. “As part of [Trump’s] strategy to end the Ukraine war, I will be 100 percent on board for taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors, to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table,” Bessent told senators. Speaking to the Senate Finance Committee, Bessent criticized current U.S. measures as insufficient, claiming the Biden administration avoided tougher actions to prevent rising oil prices during an election year. He committed to supporting “sanctions on Russian oil majors” as a core element of Trump’s strategy to resolve the war. Financial Times

U.S. Reveals Once-Secret Support for Ukraine’s Drone Industry. The U.S. has revealed its extensive support for Ukraine’s drone industry, a vital part of Kyiv’s defense against Russia. Since Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, the Biden administration has invested billions, including $1.5 billion last September, to enhance Ukraine’s drone production capabilities. These funds have supported manufacturers, supplied components, and fostered ties between Ukrainian and American tech firms. U.S. officials credit these efforts with transforming Ukraine’s drone technology, enabling significant impacts like damaging a quarter of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and slowing advances in eastern Ukraine. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday emphasized drones’ growing centrality in modern warfare, noting lessons learned for the U.S. defense sector. New York Times

The CIA’s deep partnership with Ukrainian intelligence. ABC News reports on the clandestine collaboration between the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence agencies, emphasizing its critical role in empowering Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. This deep partnership has driven the sharing of crucial intelligence, enabling Ukraine to effectively anticipate and counter Russian military strategies. The cooperation underscores the United States’ unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and security amidst ongoing conflicts. Reevell highlights that this alliance has enhanced Ukraine’s immediate defense capabilities and bolstered long-term strategic planning against potential threats. ABC News

Germany’s Baerbock hammers own government for faltering on Ukraine aid. In an interview with Politico, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized her government’s lack of decisiveness on Ukraine aid, exposing rifts within the interim cabinet during a heated election campaign. “Germany as a whole isn’t currently seen as a driving force for peace policy in Europe, and honestly, that pains me,” she said, blaming politicians for prioritizing election gains over Europe’s security. Baerbock supported a €3 billion aid package for Ukraine, which has been delayed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s insistence that it be financed through new borrowing. This stance has stalled agreement among fiscally conservative parties, raising concerns about Germany’s reliability. “That trust must not be damaged again by hesitation, which could make other countries worry that Germany won’t stand by them,” she warned. She also criticized former governments, particularly the Christian Democratic Union under Angela Merkel, for supporting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing it enabled Kremlin aggression. “Nord Stream 2 was never purely an economic project,” Baerbock said, linking it to recent suspected Russian sabotage of undersea cables. On defense, she called for Germany to consistently invest over 2% of GDP, potentially reaching 3% during crises, emphasizing the importance of European security in light of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for higher NATO spending. Politico EU Financial Times

Trump the savior? Anxious Ukrainians question the president’s power to end war. Many Ukrainians remain skeptical of Donald Trump’s promise to swiftly end Russia’s war on Ukraine after taking office. “Our fate is in our own hands,” said Kyiv resident Marharyta Deputat, echoing widespread doubt. Hanna Horbachova, a bakery owner displaced twice by war, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not stop without firm deterrence. Trump’s advisers concede peace talks may take months, while Ukrainian leaders insist NATO membership is key to lasting security. Former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov argued any deal without U.S. guarantees risks future Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Horbachova cautiously hoped that Trump could become a global peace icon. “Trump has the opportunity to go down in history as a savior of a huge nation,” she said. Reuters Al Jazeera

US assured Putin no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Biden says. President Joe Biden revealed in an interview with MSNBC that he assured Russian President Vladimir Putin the U.S. would not deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden recounted past conversations with Putin, stating he emphasized that nuclear arms had already been removed from Ukraine under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and would not return. Criticizing Putin’s ambitions to revive the Warsaw Pact, Biden reiterated U.S. opposition to Russian aggression and nuclear threats, which remain central to ongoing tensions over Ukraine’s security. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine and the UK sign a 100-year partnership agreement. On his first visit to Ukraine since taking office, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a 100-year partnership on Thursday to deepen security and economic ties. Starmer pledged the UK’s “full part in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security” and left open the possibility of deploying British troops for training or post-war stabilization. At a press conference, Starmer emphasized the need for “peace through strength,” while Zelensky advocated for international peacekeeping forces. The treaty also targets military cooperation, critical minerals, and green steel production. Starmer noted, “Putin’s ambition…has been a monumental strategic failure.” The visit, days before Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, underscores Britain’s ongoing support for Ukraine, which has received $16 billion in aid from London since 2022. Meanwhile, European leaders debate peacekeeping roles amid concerns about Trump’s potential pressure for territorial concessions to Russia. Reuters Reuters Financial Times Washington Post

Russian drone shot down near presidential palace during Starmer’s Ukraine visit. During Keir Starmer’s visit to Kyiv on Thursday, a Russian drone was shot down near the presidential palace as he met President Volodymyr Zelensky. Anti-aircraft gunfire was heard as air sirens blared, underscoring the daily threats Ukraine faces. Starmer called the incident a stark reminder of “Russian aggression,” while Zelensky remarked, “We will say hello to them too.” Ukraine’s air force reported downing 34 of 55 drones launched overnight, with no casualties in the capital. The attack coincided with discussions on strengthening Ukraine’s defense and NATO membership, further highlighting the ongoing security challenges. Sky News Reuters

Russia says any British military role in Ukraine under new 100-year deal would be worrying. Russia expressed concern over potential British military involvement in Ukraine under a new 100-year partnership announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned against NATO military infrastructure near Russia’s borders and criticized possible UK cooperation with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov, which Russia claims as its “internal sea.” Zelensky also raised the prospect of Western peacekeepers post-war, with Starmer affirming Britain’s commitment to supporting Ukraine. Reuters

Ukrainian brigade pioneers remote-controlled ground assaults. Ukraine’s Khartiia Brigade conducted a remote-controlled ground assault in the Kharkiv region last month, marking what it claimed as the first documented machine-only attack in the war. The operation utilized unmanned vehicles for reconnaissance, mine-clearing, and assaults, supported by drones, paving the way for a successful infantry advance. Spokesperson Volodymyr Dehtiarov highlighted the goal of minimizing human casualties by transferring risky operations to machines. Equipped with kamikaze drones and remote-controlled stretchers, the brigade is part of Ukraine’s broader push for innovation against a larger Russian force. Despite domestic advancements, Ukrainian forces must continuously adapt as Russian troops adopt similar technologies. Reuters

Royal wartime decree is seen as a fallback option to keep Russia’s frozen €190 billion in EU. The European Union is preparing contingency plans, including invoking a 1944 Belgian royal decree, to maintain sanctions against Russia if Hungary vetoes their renewal. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán linked Hungary’s decision to the upcoming Trump administration’s stance on sanctions. The frozen €190 billion in Russian assets held at Belgium’s Euroclear is crucial for repaying a $50 billion Ukrainian loan and potentially supporting a ceasefire. Belgian King Philippe’s authority could block asset transfers, but legal risks and bilateral treaties with Russia complicate the move. EU officials continue negotiations, with stripping Hungary’s voting rights considered but unlikely to gain unanimous support. Financial Times

Russian attack Friday on Kryvyi Rih kills 4, injures 3, damages educational institution. A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Friday killed four people and injured three others, including a 22-year-old woman and two men in critical condition. The attack damaged a residential building and an educational institution. Governor Serhii Lysak warned of ongoing air alerts and urged residents to remain in shelters. Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown, frequently faces Russian strikes due to its strategic location near the front lines. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 16 over past day. Russian attacks killed one person and injured 16 across Ukraine over the past day, authorities said Friday morning, before another deadly attack on Kryvyi Rih. A drone strike in Kherson Oblast killed a man at a bus stop and injured seven others. In Kyiv Oblast, falling drone debris injured a 12-year-old boy. Drone strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts injured six people, with additional injuries reported in Donetsk Oblast. Targets included residential buildings, infrastructure, and vehicles. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s air force says it downed 33 Russian drones launched overnight. Ukrainian air defenses downed 33 of 50 Russian drones launched overnight on January 17, 2025. Attacks damaged infrastructure in Odesa, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, and Kyiv regions, with a child injured by debris near Kyiv. Ukraine also redirected nine drones using electronic warfare, while one entered Romanian airspace. Reuters

Ukraine strikes Russian S-400 radar equipment in Belgorod Oblast, military claims. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian S-400 radar equipment in Belgorod Oblast on Thursday, claiming to have destroyed the 92H6 radar station of the 568th regiment. Additional attacks hit a radar company in Belgorod and damaged vehicles and equipment. Overnight, drones also struck an oil depot in Voronezh and a gunpowder factory in Tambov. Moscow has not commented, and claims remain unverified. Belgorod Oblast, bordering Ukraine, frequently experiences cross-border strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russia says it retook 63.2% of the territory captured by Ukraine in its Kursk region. Russian forces have retaken 63.2% of the territory captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region of western Russia, the Russian defense ministry said on Friday. The ministry said Russia had recaptured four settlements in the first two weeks of January. Ukrainian troops burst across the border in a surprise incursion on Aug. 6 last year, seizing a chunk of territory that offers Kyiv a valuable bargaining chip in potential talks on ending the war. Reuters

UN appeals for $3.2 billion to support 8.2 million Ukrainian war victims. The United Nations has launched a $3.2 billion appeal to aid 8.2 million Ukrainians affected by Russia’s war, nearly three years since the invasion began. Most funds ($2.62 billion) will support 6 million people inside Ukraine, prioritizing those near the front lines. Another $1.2 billion will assist over 2 million Ukrainian refugees in 11 neighboring countries, including Poland and Moldova. U.N. officials stressed that sustained global support is vital and noted many refugees hope to return home eventually. Voice of America

Ukraine produced over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, minister says. Ukraine produced over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin announced on Thursday. These drones, capable of striking at night and dubbed “Baba Yaga,” after a mythical witch, by Russian soldiers, also deliver supplies and disperse mines. During U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Kyiv, he and President Volodymyr Zelensky inspected these drones and a new carrier platform for FPV drones. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov noted over 200,000 drones were delivered to Ukrainian forces by year-end. Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS–What it will take to end the war in Ukraine. Ending the war in Ukraine requires navigating complex challenges, including entrenched positions on both sides. Donald Trump, preparing to assume the U.S. presidency, has proposed leveraging military aid to push for a ceasefire within 100 days. However, Russia’s advances, bolstered by heavy losses and foreign troop support, suggest Putin sees no need to compromise. Meanwhile, Ukraine, facing manpower shortages and stretched defenses, signals openness to ending the “hot phase” if robust security guarantees are provided. NATO membership remains Ukraine’s ultimate goal, but skepticism among allies and Trump’s ambivalence toward treaties complicate this path. Experts warn that any ceasefire without addressing long-term security risks empowering Russia to regroup for future aggression. Ultimately, the conflict risks devolving into a war of exhaustion, with lasting peace contingent on stabilizing front lines and bridging deep geopolitical divides. Vox

Indians lured to Russia are dying on the front lines in Ukraine. The death of Indian national Binil Babu, forced to serve in the Russian army, has highlighted allegations of fraudulent recruitment of Indians into Russia’s military. Nearly 100 Indians have been lured with false job or education promises, only to find themselves deployed to Ukraine’s front lines. At least 12 Indians have died serving in the Russian armed forces, India’s foreign ministry said on Friday, adding that 18 more are still serving in the army, of whom Russia has categorized 16 as “missing.” India has demanded the release of the remaining nationals. Moscow denies misconduct, yet families report agents exploiting workers and students. India launched a trafficking probe, but progress remains slow. Despite tensions, India-Russia trade ties continue to grow. Washington Post Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Jan. 16. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast and a gunpowder plant in Tambov Oblast on the night of Jan. 15-16, targeting Russian military supply infrastructure. North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast face unsustainable casualty rates, potentially wiping out their entire contingent by mid-April 2025 if current trends continue. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a “Centennial Partnership Agreement” to strengthen defense, economic, and NATO-related cooperation. Russia and Transnistria are negotiating European gas purchases through intermediaries to bypass geopolitical pipeline constraints.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump Can Make Russia Pay to Rebuild Ukraine. Niall Ferguson and Chris Miller argue that frozen Russian assets, totaling $300 billion, should fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and defense. They criticize European resistance and Biden administration diplomacy for limiting access to these funds. Ferguson and Miller advocate for the Trump administration to use leverage to mobilize these reserves, noting that international law supports reparations. With $150 billion in war damage and $500 billion in economic losses, Ukraine requires significant external aid. They highlight the reserves’ liquidity, minimal risk of Russian retaliation, and shifting European politics as factors enabling decisive action to assist Ukraine effectively. Wall Street Journal