Ukraine Update: Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump Threatens Taxes, Tariffs and Sanctions on Russia if Putin Won’t End War in Ukraine. President Donald Trump has shifted to an aggressive stance toward Russia, threatening tariffs and sanctions unless President Vladimir Putin ends Russia’s war on Ukraine. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump declared, “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.” He emphasized his approach as a “big FAVOR” to Russia, urging Putin to “STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.” Trump has repeatedly claimed he could broker peace swiftly, asserting that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “wants to make a deal” while expressing doubt about Putin’s willingness. Earlier this week, Trump remarked on the war’s toll: “He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week, and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good.” Despite small and declining trade between the U.S. and Russia, Trump’s rhetoric signals a tougher line against Moscow. Analysts highlight potential new measures targeting Russia’s oil exports or sanctions on nations aiding its war effort. However, critics note Putin’s geopolitical ambitions often outweigh economic pressures. Wall Street Journal Reuters Axios Politico EU Financial Times The Hill

Putin growing concerned by Russia’s economy as Trump pushes for Ukraine deal. According to Kremlin insiders, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly concerned about Russia’s strained wartime economy, with high inflation, labor shortages, and surging military spending contributing to economic distortions. Russia’s central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, slowing private investment and prompting criticism from business leaders. Putin expressed frustration during a December meeting with officials, citing the impact of high rates on growth. Despite earlier resilience under Western sanctions, Russia’s $2.2 trillion economy will see slow GDP growth below 1.5% in 2025. As President Donald Trump pushes for a Ukraine peace deal, Kremlin sources suggest economic pressures are driving elite support for negotiations. Trump has warned of further sanctions if Russia does not cooperate. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, trusted by Putin, faces pressure from top bankers and business leaders to ease rates. Critics argue that inflation stems from record defense spending, making economic challenges difficult to resolve without a diplomatic end to the war. Reuters

Zelensky Says US Must Be Part of Any Ukraine Peacekeeping Force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy underscored the need for U.S. participation in any peacekeeping force, stating, “It can’t be without the United States.” In an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he dismissed the sufficiency of European military support alone. He stressed the U.S.’s pivotal role in deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin and offering security guarantees. Zelensky urged China to leverage its influence, saying President Xi Jinping “can push Putin for peace, I’m sure.” Zelensky also warned against short-term ceasefires, asserting they allow Russia to rearm. Regarding domestic challenges, he opposed lowering the draft age, currently at 25, arguing, “Why mobilize even younger people? So that there are even more people without weapons?” Bloomberg

Trump special envoy criticizes NATO allies for spending too little. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, on Thursday criticized allies who favor continuing Ukraine’s defense against Russia but still won’t increase their defense spending to NATO guidelines. Speaking via video link to a panel on Ukraine held on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. NATO leaders have agreed that each member country should spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on their military budgets. The alliance estimates that 23 of 32 members will reach that level this year. “You cannot ask the American people to expand the umbrella of NATO when the current members aren’t paying their fair share,” Grenell said. The United States spends most within NATO on its own budget, in dollar terms, and allies rely on its military might for their defense. “When we have leaders who are going to talk about more war, we need to make sure that those leaders are spending the right amount of money,” Grenell said. “We need to be able to avoid war, and that means a credible threat from NATO.” He also insisted that former President Joe Biden was wrong not to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was indicted for war crimes in 2023 by the International Criminal Court for the “unlawful deportation” of children from Ukraine to Russia. “You should be able to talk to people,” Grenell said. “Talking is a tactic, and you’re not going to be able to solve problems peacefully unless you actually have conversations.” Associated Press

Ahead of the expected Trump-Putin call, each side stakes out its position. Amid preparations for a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, both sides are positioning themselves for potential negotiations to end the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. Russian officials are doubling down on demands, with hardliners advocating Ukraine’s capitulation, NATO’s rollback, and Moscow’s retention of annexed territories. Putin aide Nikolai Patrushev has even suggested Ukraine could cease to exist by year’s end, reflecting maximalist goals for Russian dominance. Trump has promised a swift resolution, threatening heavy sanctions if Putin does not negotiate. While the Kremlin sees a narrow opportunity to work with Trump, pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov expects any agreements to be limited. Economic pressures complicate Putin’s stance. With inflation rising and defense spending consuming 40% of Russia’s budget, continued war poses risks, although hardliners say Russia will fight for decades to subjugate Ukraine if necessary. Some U.S. observers worry Trump might concede to Russian demands, allowing Putin to frame the outcome as a victory. Meanwhile, Trump’s own rhetoric about seeking territorial acquisitions for the U.S. has raised concerns about his potential to disrupt the post-World War II rules-based order, echoing elements of Putin’s worldview. Washington Post

Russia lacks manpower for a major breakthrough in Ukraine, top NATO general says. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, said that Russia lacks the manpower for a breakthrough in Ukraine. “I’m not worried that Ukraine could suddenly lose. I don’t see the potential for a massive (Russian) breakthrough,” Cavoli said. He attributed this to Ukraine’s effective defenses and Russia’s difficulties despite slow and incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast. Cavoli described Russia’s incremental gains as “exhausting” for its military, highlighting its reliance on foreign troops, including a 12,000-strong North Korean contingent. He acknowledged uncertainty over U.S. military aid under President Donald Trump but noted increased European contributions. He predicted manpower shortages will continue to shape the war. Kyiv Independent

NATO chief Rutte says Europe will fund US weapons for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday called for the U.S. to continue supplying Ukraine and said Europe would pay the bill. Speaking at an event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the NATO chief said the alliance must invest more in defense, ramp up defense industrial production and take on a bigger share of spending on help for Ukraine. “If this new Trump administration is willing to keep on supplying Ukraine from its defense industrial base, the bill will be paid by the Europeans, I’m absolutely convinced of this, we have to be willing to do that,” he said. Rutte also said it was vital Russia did not win as it could result in Russian President Vladimir Putin “high fiving” the leaders of North Korea and China. “We really have to step up and not scale back our support for Ukraine,” the NATO chief said. “The frontline is moving in the wrong direction.” Rutte also said the costs for NATO, in terms of credibility and military spending, will be much higher if Russia wins. “If Ukraine loses then to restore the deterrence of the rest of NATO again, it will be a much, much higher price than what we are contemplating at this moment in terms of ramping up our spending and ramping up our industrial production,” Rutte said. “It will not be billions extra; it will be trillions extra,” he said, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Reuters Associated Press

Will Europe put ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine? Discussions on deploying European troops to Ukraine have resurfaced, influenced by Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his push for a ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron initially proposed such an idea, which was deemed too risky. But Ukraine’s military challenges, dwindling NATO prospects, and the need for strong security guarantees have revived talks. Critics highlight risks, logistical hurdles, and public opposition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that if Europe is serious about providing an effective deterrent, 200,000 troops will be needed, a figure regarded by some as unrealistically high, with a security force of 50,000 troops seen as more likely. Financial Times

Israel Offers to Transfer Russian-Made Weapons to Ukraine. During a meeting between Israeli Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sharren Haskel and Ukrainian Ambassador Yevgen Korniychuk, Israel proposed transferring seized Russian-made weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Embassy in Israel called this a key step toward addressing shared threats from Iran and Russia. Many of these weapons, captured during Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah, include Draganov rifles and Kornet missiles. Discussions also covered mutual security concerns, particularly Iran’s arms support to Russia and militant groups. Russia and Iran recently signed a strategic pact enhancing their military cooperation, with Tehran supplying drones used in Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine. Defense Post

Opposition wants to end Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine. A Czech opposition leader whose party is leading in the polls for autumn’s parliamentary elections wants to end the nation’s initiative to supply Ukraine with large-caliber ammunition. Karel Havlíček, deputy leader of the ANO party, said the focus should be on negotiations with Russia, considering that Ukraine is losing territory on the battlefield. The Czech government estimates that around half a million rounds of 155mm ammunition were supplied to Ukraine last year, reducing Russia’s artillery advantage. The ruling center-right coalition remains committed to the program, arguing that it serves Ukraine’s urgent needs and upholds Czech security interests by countering Russia’s expansionist ambitions. “Innocent people are dying, all because of Putin’s aggression and imperialist appetites. We know very well what the policy of appeasement has led to and how it ends,” Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová said. Euractiv

One dead, 25 injured in Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. One person was killed and 25 others wounded in a Russian drone and missile attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, regional officials said on Thursday. More than 20,000 residents were also left without power and another 17,000 without heating as a result of the overnight attack, according to Governor Ivan Fedorov, who said an energy facility had been destroyed. Russia has carried out regular air strikes on Ukrainian towns and cities behind the front line of its three-year-old invasion, targeting the country’s weakened energy grid in particular. Reuters

Ukrainian drones attack city near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, officials say. Ukrainian drones targeted Enerhodar, near the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, on Wednesday, according to Russia-installed officials. At least four drones reportedly struck, causing power and water disruptions but no casualties. Russia-appointed Acting Mayor Maksim Pukha called the attack a “terrorist act,” accusing Ukraine of targeting civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian officials reported five drones hitting Zaporizhzhia city, 60 kilometers away, with fires and damage. Both sides continue to blame each other for endangering the nuclear facility. Reuters

If it depended on Ukraine, the war would be over tomorrow, says Zelensky’s top aide. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky, emphasized at Davos on Wednesday, that Ukraine seeks to end Russia’s war through a “just peace,” reflecting the nation’s resilience and commitment to democratic values. He stated, “If it depended on Ukraine, the war would be over tomorrow.” Yermak highlighted Ukraine as a victim of aggression, stressing the need for Europe and the U.S. to unite in support. While addressing Donald Trump’s claim to end the war in 24 hours, Yermak underscored that victory equates to peace, achieved collaboratively with Ukraine’s allies. Euronews

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 22. The Kremlin is conducting an information operation to project economic stability despite persistent macroeconomic distress, including high inflation, labor shortages, and unsustainable defense spending. Russia is building its manpower reserve through the All-Russian Cossack Society, training members in defense tactics to bolster its mobilization capacity. North Korea plans to send additional troops to Russia by mid-March 2025 to sustain infantry-led assaults despite high casualty rates. Russian milbloggers expressed concern over uncertainties regarding Russia’s military presence in Syria following claims of suspended investments in the Tartus port. Russia may resume gas deliveries to Transnistria via TurkStream, potentially bypassing sanctions while influencing Moldovan public opinion. Russia and Uzbekistan are expanding their military cooperation.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces regained positions near Toretsk amid Russian advances in areas including Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine is failing the mobilization test. Illia Krotenko, a sergeant with the Ukrainian Ground Forces, critiques Ukrainian society’s resistance to mobilization, describing it as a threat to national defense. He notes nearly 6 million men have avoided updating enlistment records, while public outrage targets forced conscription of young adults. Society resists sending poorly trained recruits to the infantry, viewed as a degrading role, and avoids transitioning the economy to a wartime footing. Krotenko stresses, “If we want the world to protect democracy in Ukraine, Ukrainians themselves must defend it first.” He criticizes the government and parliament for failing to implement necessary but unpopular mobilization policies, emphasizing that holding the front line requires political decisions and reserves. He argues reforms are meaningless without additional personnel and calls on political leaders to take decisive action, despite opposition and potential backlash. Krotenko warns Ukraine risks losing Western support if seen as weak, despite military aid. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Donald Trump Can Bring the End of Vladimir Putin’s Rule. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian argue that Donald Trump has the tools to destabilize Vladimir Putin’s regime and end Russia’s war on Ukraine through robust economic pressure. They highlight Russia’s economic struggles, including reliance on costly oil production, depleted reserves, and a collapsing ruble. They suggest Trump’s plans to increase U.S. oil production and enforce stricter sanctions could choke Russia’s economy, as oil revenues are Putin’s lifeline. The authors compare this approach to Ronald Reagan’s Cold War strategy, emphasizing Trump’s potential to exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities. They note that Russia has lost 90% of its natural gas exports to Europe and faces unsustainable oil production costs of $44 per barrel. According to Sonnenfeld and Tian, decisive U.S. action could drive Putin to the brink, cutting his ability to sustain the war. They conclude Trump could “suffocate Russia’s economy” and deal a fatal blow to Putin’s regime. Time

Opinion: 3 possible explanations for Putin’s bravado. Alexander J. Motyl offers three explanations for Vladimir Putin’s bravado amid Russia’s failing war in Ukraine. First, Putin may be lying, using propaganda to mask failures, creating a “Potemkin illusion” of victory to control public perception. Second, he might be unaware of reality due to systemic distortions in his over-centralized regime, where subordinates report overly optimistic outcomes. Third, Putin could be delusional, living in a self-constructed parallel reality, which would explain his reckless decisions and nuclear threats. Motyl concludes that negotiations with Putin require toughness, as he likely won’t admit Russia’s weaknesses or his own errors. The Hill