Ukraine Update: Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump says he will meet ‘very quickly’ with Putin. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump told Newsmax on Monday that he plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin “very quickly” after taking office next week. While not providing an exact timeline, Trump emphasized the urgency of addressing Russia’s war on Ukraine. Asked about his strategy to end the war, Trump remarked: “Well, there’s only one strategy, and it’s up to Putin, and I can’t imagine he’s too thrilled about the way it’s gone because it hasn’t gone exactly well for him either.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands of people dead, displaced millions, and triggered the biggest rupture in relations between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Reuters

NATO chief: Ukraine is not yet in a strong position for peace talks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, addressing the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs in Brussels on Monday, said Ukraine is not currently strong enough to negotiate peace with Russia. “At this moment, clearly, Ukraine is not there,” Rutte said. “Because they cannot, at this moment, negotiate from a position of strength. And we have to do more to make sure, by changing the trajectory of the conflict, that they can get to the position of strength.” He also warned that “peace will not last if [Vladimir] Putin gets his way in Ukraine.” Urging increased European defense spending, Rutte stated, “2 percent of GDP is not nearly enough.” RFE/RL The Hill

Europe Grows More Optimistic Trump Won’t Abandon Ukraine. European leaders are cautiously optimistic that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won’t abruptly end support for Ukraine, following private talks where they argued for continued aid. Trump’s openness to diplomacy and deterrence surprised some, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasizing, “The only way to force Russia to sit down for talks is to build a difficult situation for them.” Trump’s team is considering steps to strengthen Ukraine’s position, including military support and stricter sanctions on Russia. Concerns persist about his commitment, with doubts over NATO membership for Ukraine and questions about long-term U.S. involvement. However, leaders in European capitals are increasingly convinced that a deal to end the war will emerge in the foreseeable future. Bloomberg

German defense minister arrives in Ukraine to discuss aid. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited Kyiv on Tuesday to discuss aid and assess the military situation with Ukrainian officials, affirming Germany’s continued support for Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Pistorius emphasized Germany’s solidarity with Ukraine, alongside allies in NATO and the Group of Five. The visit follows his meeting in Warsaw with counterparts from Poland, Britain, France, and Italy. Germany, a top military backer of Ukraine, faces domestic debate over its support ahead of the February 23 snap election, as Donald Trump’s impending return to the U.S. presidency pressures Europe to strengthen its defenses independently. Reuters

Macron, Zelensky discuss ‘practical steps’ for deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call on Monday to discuss deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, focusing on practical steps and potential international involvement. Zelensky highlighted Ukraine’s defense priorities, including long-range weapons. Macron first proposed peacekeepers in February 2024 and raised the idea again during a Dec. 7 meeting with Zelensky and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Both leaders plan to meet soon to advance these discussions and ensure security guarantees. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine faces obstacles in drafting more soldiers. Over 6 million Ukrainian men of conscription age have not updated their military registration, highlighting challenges for Kyiv in replenishing troops amid the war with Russia. Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, told ABC News that Ukraine should lower its draft age from 25 to 18 to stabilize the frontline, stating, “If the Ukrainians have asked the entire world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy.” Ukrainian veteran Viktor Kovalenko called the noncompliance “shocking” and warned Kyiv lacks the mobilization potential it had hoped for, adding, “Ukraine needs soldiers on the ground who either defend positions or go forward, capture land, and raise the flag.” The Biden administration also urged Ukraine to amend its conscription laws. Zelensky, however, emphasized in December that acquiring Western weapons and training remains a greater priority than lowering the draft age. The issue could strain U.S.-Ukraine relations. Newsweek

Russia Targets Ukraine’s Key Lithium Reserves. Russia has seized two of Ukraine’s four lithium deposits, including Shevchenko in Donetsk, since the 2022 invasion, threatening Ukraine’s economic resources and Europe’s green energy ambitions. Ukraine holds an estimated 500,000 tons of lithium, one of the largest reserves in Europe, crucial for batteries in electric vehicles and electronics. While Russia’s war likely isn’t driven by lithium, Ukraine’s mineral wealth highlights its strategic importance. Europe seeks to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like China, making Ukraine a potential key partner. Experts note that stabilizing Ukraine could position it as a cornerstone for Europe’s critical mineral supply chain. RFE/RL

Ukraine halts production at Pokrovsk coal mine as Russia closes in. Ukraine halted production at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine, its sole source for steelmaking coal, due to the proximity of advancing Russian forces. Russian troops are reportedly within 2 kilometers of one mine shaft, with nearby facilities also under threat. Pokrovsk is critical to Ukraine’s steel industry, which has suffered declines since 2022. Steel output dropped from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to a projected 2-3 million in 2025. Producers may seek alternative domestic sources or imports, raising costs. Metal exports, vital to Ukraine’s economy, generated $4.4 billion in 2024. Evacuations are underway as operations halt. Reuters

Putin’s passport trap: The Cubans caught in Moscow’s endless war. Thousands of foreign recruits, including Cubans, are trapped in Russia’s war on Ukraine after signing one-year military contracts in exchange for fast-tracked citizenship. Recruits, many deceived by promises of civilian jobs or financial stability, face indefinite deployment due to their new status as Russian citizens. Cuban soldiers report being used as cannon fodder, suffering injuries, and enduring dangerous frontline conditions. Some attempt to escape despite harsh punishments like imprisonment or forced returns to combat. Cuba’s complicity, including silence on casualties and participation in recruitment, underscores the recruits’ dire predicament, leaving families back home searching for answers and soldiers desperate for freedom. Politico EU

North Korea’s suicide soldiers pose a new challenge for Ukraine in war with Russia. A grim suicide policy binds North Korea’s troops in Ukraine. They are reportedly ordered to take their own lives rather than be captured, according to Ukrainian officials and South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS). Ukrainian forces have encountered multiple cases where soldiers detonated grenades as capture loomed, shouting allegiance to Kim Jong Un. Notes recovered from fallen soldiers affirm regime-issued directives emphasizing self-destruction to protect both the state and their families. The indoctrination fuels extreme loyalty, with defectors describing these soldiers as “ready to die” for their leader. Over 300 have been killed and 2,700 wounded among North Korean forces deployed to support Russia in Ukraine, highlighting their use as expendable assets in Russia’s war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently proposed exchanging captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia, but many in North Korea see capture as a fate worse than death, equating it with treason. Captured soldiers testified they received no salaries, only promises of hero status. Families of deployed troops, compensated with food and necessities, expressed fear and concern. The NIS also noted widespread domestic awareness of the deployment and citizens’ hopes for Russian aid to improve living conditions. Reuters Nikkei Asia

Ukraine Gaining ‘Useful’ Intelligence from Captured North Korean Soldiers, Kyiv Says. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) is leveraging the capture of two North Korean soldiers for operational insights and diplomatic advantage. Interrogations revealed details about North Korea’s role in Russia’s war, including troop movements, training, and the strategic use of North Korean forces as expendable infantry. One soldier disclosed he was misled into believing he was sent for training, not combat, reflecting poor preparation and morale among North Korean units. Analysts note this intelligence highlights Kim Jong-un’s covert support for Moscow, further straining Pyongyang’s diplomatic credibility. Ukraine plans to use these findings to spotlight North Korea’s involvement on the global stage. RFE/RL

Ukraine’s new Kursk push brings minor gains, raising concerns over limited resources. Ukraine’s recent operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast has achieved minor tactical gains but raised concerns over resource allocation amid other critical battles. Starting in early January, Ukrainian forces advanced over two kilometers but struggled to retain captured villages, facing heavy Russian counterattacks and advanced weaponry. Experts suggest the operation, involving elite and less experienced units, is politically motivated, aiming to pressure Russia and bolster morale. Ukraine’s limited control over Kursk territory risks overstretching defenses. Meanwhile, Russia’s counteroffensive, supported by 12,000 North Korean troops, intensifies, jeopardizing Ukraine’s logistics and further complicating the operation’s sustainability. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it targeted Russia’s Engels airbase infrastructure in a ‘multi-day, comprehensive operation.’ Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment targeted Russia’s Engels airbase in a multi-day operation, striking aviation fuel tanks and ammunition depots to weaken Russian strategic aviation. As part of a broader overnight campaign, attacks also hit industrial sites in Tula, Saratov, and Bryansk regions. Engels airbase, over 750 kilometers from Ukraine, houses Tu-95, Tu-22, and Tu-160 bombers regularly used against Ukrainian cities. The Tu-95 and Tu-160 can carry advanced cruise missiles, while the supersonic Tu-22 poses challenges for Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine’s innovative drone warfare continues to counter Russia’s numerical edge, with aerial, naval, and ground drones achieving significant operational success. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine strikes Russia with massive drone and ATACMS attack. Ukraine launched a massive overnight drone and missile attack on Russian cities on Tuesday, damaging factories in Saratov, Engels, and Kazan and prompting airport closures across southern Russia. Saratov’s governor reported industrial site damage, and schools shifted to remote learning. The attack follows a prior strike in the region targeting an oil depot linked to a nuclear bomber airbase. The independent Astra news outlet noted a fire in Kazan, where alarms sounded at the Taneco refinery. A chemical plant in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, critical to producing gunpowder and explosives for artillery and missiles, was reportedly damaged. Explosions were also reported at the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant, which supplies components for Russian defense systems. Russia claims to have downed over 200 drones and five U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, though this is unverified. Moscow has pledged retaliation, escalating tensions further. Reuters Kyiv Independent CNN

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks. Russia has attributed a wave of arson attacks to Ukraine, framing it as a campaign of subversion and psychological warfare. The attacks, primarily targeting ATMs, police cars, and banks, often involve elderly perpetrators claiming coercion by phone scammers. These scammers, allegedly linked to Ukrainian call centers, exploit Russia’s vulnerability due to widespread corruption and data breaches. Ukrainian sources confirm such call centers might be involved, leveraging psychological tactics for financial gain or patriotic motives. Some Ukrainian intelligence officials claim direct involvement by Kyiv’s special services, citing these acts as strategic operations. Russia has responded by restricting internet access, banning YouTube and telephony services, to counter foreign influence. Meanwhile, accused arsonists, like pensioner Alexander Nikiforov, face severe legal consequences with minimal chances of acquittal. Ukraine has also accused Russia of similar methods, claiming Russian-backed arson against Ukrainian military vehicles. Both sides exploit vulnerable individuals, fueling tension and mutual accusations in the war. The Economist

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 19 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed two people and injured 19 in the past day, regional authorities said Tuesday. Ukraine’s Air Force reported shooting down 58 of 80 Shahed drones launched overnight. Donetsk Oblast recorded two fatalities and two injuries, while Kherson Oblast saw nine injured, including in Kherson city. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, three were injured, including a 14-year-old girl. Five were injured in Kharkiv Oblast, including two infants, highlighting civilian casualties amid Russia’s ongoing war. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine air defense downs 58 Russian drones over 11 regions, Kyiv says. Ukrainian air defense and mobile drone hunter groups shot down 58 out of 80 drones launched by Russia in overnight attacks on Tuesday, the air force said in a statement. It said 21 drones disappeared from radars in reference to Kyiv using electronic warfare to redirect them. The drones were downed over 11 regions across Ukraine. Reuters

Gazprom considers record job cuts as Ukraine war ravages finances. Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, plans to cut 1,600 jobs at its St. Petersburg headquarters, reducing its workforce by 40%. This marks the largest layoff in its history as plummeting European gas sales and oil sanctions severely hurt finances following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, Gazprom reported a $6.9 billion loss, its worst in 25 years, with revenues dropping 30% due to Nord Stream pipeline damage and declining European Union market reliance. While financial performance improved in 2024, analysts doubt a full recovery. The leaked proposal highlights internal dissatisfaction and underscores the company’s struggle to adapt to shifting energy markets. Financial Times

My place or yours? Zelensky and Fico can’t agree on a venue to settle their ugly gas feud. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico remain locked in a heated dispute over gas transit. Tensions escalated after Fico, who met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, criticized Kyiv’s decision to end the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to European Union nations, including Slovakia, after a five-year agreement expired on Jan. 1. Fico threatened to cut electricity exports to Ukraine in retaliation. Zelensky accused Fico of “arrogantly refusing” Ukraine’s assistance. Both leaders proposed conflicting venues for talks, with Fico suggesting Slovakia and Zelensky inviting him to Kyiv. Politico EU

Oligarch-linked telecoms group to float Ukraine’s Kyivstar on Nasdaq. Veon, linked to sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, plans to list Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest telecom operator, on Nasdaq through a merger with Cohen Circle. Though Fridman and Aven co-founded Veon’s largest shareholder, LetterOne, the company asserts they hold no shares in Kyivstar or Veon, with their assets effectively frozen. Kyivstar, which recently partnered with Elon Musk’s Starlink, reported $541 million EBITDA in 2023. Veon has committed $1 billion to rebuilding Ukraine’s digital infrastructure by 2027 and exited Russia in 2023. This listing highlights Veon’s strategy to attract international investors and distance itself from oligarch affiliations. Financial Times

Zelensky announces new sanctions on Russian financial sector. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new sanctions targeting 140 entities in Russia’s financial sector. He also signed a draft law introducing criminal penalties for evading sanctions, aligning with international enforcement standards. Zelensky emphasized that sanctions pressure the aggressor and bring peace closer. His announcement follows U.S. and U.K. sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels and associated officials. Zelensky called these measures a “significant blow” to Russia’s war funding. Kyiv Independent

Putin has failed to meet any of his strategic objectives in Ukraine, Biden says. In a closing foreign policy address at the White House on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve any strategic objectives in Ukraine. Reflecting on his administration’s record, Biden noted Putin’s failure to subjugate Ukraine, divide NATO, or make significant territorial gains. He highlighted U.S. support by citing coalition-building with 50 nations, extensive military aid, and sanctions that weakened Russia’s economy. Biden urged continued U.S. assistance for Ukraine and contrasted his visit to Kyiv in February 2023 with Putin’s inability to claim victory. His remarks precede President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine opens doors to foreign firms for military equipment modernization. Ukraine has approved foreign companies to assist in modernizing military equipment, focusing on aviation, ships, and components with advanced Western technologies, the Defense Ministry announced on Monday. The initiative aims to foster high-tech collaborations while ensuring transparency and adherence to global standards. Deputy Defense Minister Anatolii Klochko emphasized the efficiency gains from leveraging foreign expertise. Amid the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine prioritizes defense production, allocating $1.3 billion in its 2025 budget to enhance military capabilities. Kyiv Independent

Russia’s federal budget won’t fund anti-drone systems at civilian airports, media reports. Russia will not provide federal funding for anti-drone systems at civilian airports, leaving security responsibilities to airport management, according to a Jan. 12 report by Vedomosti. Initially, over $106 million was planned to equip 31 airports by 2028, including major hubs like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This decision raises concerns about vulnerabilities in civil aviation amid Ukraine’s ongoing long-range drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure, which have frequently disrupted airport operations during the war. Kyiv Independent

How Russia tries to turn desperate Ukrainians into traitors. Svitlana, a Ukrainian woman whose husband Dima was a Russian prisoner, resisted demands from a Russian agent to commit sabotage in exchange for improved conditions for Dima. Following guidance from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), she recorded the exchanges and refused to cooperate. Despite intense pressure, she remained steadfast. Dima was eventually released after over two years in captivity, unharmed. The SBU emphasizes that cooperating with agents worsens the situation for prisoners. Now reunited, Svitlana, Dima, and their son cherish their time together, celebrating her courage and determination that helped secure their family’s reunion. BBC

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Jan. 13. Russian forces cut key highways east and southwest of Pokrovsk, aiming to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. Russian forces are likely prioritizing advances near Pokrovsk to force Ukrainian withdrawals and avoid costly urban combat. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported approximately 3,000 North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast. Gazprom is considering a 40% reduction in its central office staff, reflecting concerns over the long-term effects of declining gas exports to Europe.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Putin’s Plan for Peace Is No Peace at All. Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken argue that Vladimir Putin’s “peace” plan would perpetuate aggression rather than resolve conflict. They emphasize Ukraine’s resilience against Russia’s invasion and highlight the strategic success of U.S. and allied support, which has bolstered Ukraine’s defense and NATO’s unity. Russia faces mounting losses—over 700,000 casualties and significant economic strain—while Ukraine endures profound challenges. The authors warn against cutting aid or pushing a premature cease-fire, as it would enable Russia to regroup and re-attack. Instead, they advocate for continued U.S. leadership and “peace through strength” to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and global stability. New York Times