Ukraine Update: Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Trump: Putin Is ‘Destroying’ Russia By Failing To Seek Ukraine Peace Deal. President Donald Trump criticized Vladimir Putin on Monday, saying the Russian leader is “destroying Russia by not making a deal” with Ukraine to end the war. Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump highlighted Russia’s economic struggles and battlefield losses, adding, “He’s grinding it out, but most people thought that war would have been over in about one week, and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good.” He noted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is willing to negotiate but questioned Putin’s willingness. “Russia is kinda in big trouble. You take a look at their economy. You take a look at their inflation in Russia. I got along with [Putin] great. I would hope he wants to make a deal.” Trump cited staggering casualty figures, claiming nearly a million Russian and 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, adding, “That’s no way to run a country.” Ukraine has denied Trump’s total, claiming it has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in action and 370,000 wounded. The Kremlin does not reveal its official number of casualties, but Ukraine estimates that, in 2024 alone, Russia lost 150,000 soldiers killed and more than 400,000 wounded. Trump has tempered his rhetoric and timetable despite promising to end the war in 24 hours. Analysts suggest Trump may pressure Putin by countering Kremlin interests globally. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized strengthening Ukraine. “Let us not delude ourselves,” Macron said in an address to the French military. “This conflict will not be resolved tomorrow or the day after.” RFE/RL NDTV Times of India The Straits Times

Putin Says Russia Is Open to Dialogue on Ukraine With Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed readiness to engage in dialogue with the new U.S. administration on Ukraine and nuclear arms. At a televised Security Council meeting on Monday, Putin congratulated Trump, commending his statements on restoring U.S.-Russia ties and averting World War III. “We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict,” Putin said. “Its goal should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament to continue the conflict subsequently, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people and all nations that live in this region.” Analysts suggested Putin sees Trump’s presidency as a strategic opportunity. Moscow is expected to demand Ukraine renounce NATO ambitions and accept a neutral status. Trump has not detailed his approach. Bloomberg Reuters

Rubio says Russia-Ukraine war ‘needs to end.’ On Monday, the newly confirmed Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the urgency of ending the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that “each side is going to have to give up something” in negotiations. Rubio underscored Russia’s role as “the aggressor” while acknowledging the complexities. “We want the war to end. That’s pretty clear,” he said. Rubio warned that achieving peace should be handled diplomatically, not in public forums. Regarding timing, he said it’s a top priority, “but it’s a complex conflict, and a bloody one, and it needs to end.” CNN

Davos attendees watch Donald Trump’s inauguration at Ukraine House watch party. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, attendees gathered at Ukraine House on Monday to watch Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th U.S. president amid uncertainty about his approach to Ukraine. Trump has criticized his predecessor Joe Biden’s financial and military aid to Kyiv. While previously promising to broker peace in Ukraine within 24 hours, Trump now cites a six-month timeline. Ukraine’s supporters in Davos emphasized opportunities for collaboration. Andrei Dligach urged Kyiv to position itself as a “new opportunity” for Trump, highlighting Ukraine’s strategic value and economic potential. Andy Hunder of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine echoed this, noting the resilience of Ukraine’s business landscape, including major U.S. companies continuing operations. Trump’s stance has left Ukraine’s allies apprehensive as Kyiv seeks battlefield gains to strengthen its negotiating position. Euronews

As the Trump era begins, Ukrainians are exhausted by war. As Donald Trump begins his second term, Ukrainians face deep exhaustion from the war with Russia, marked by fears of forced concessions and uncertainty over U.S. military aid. Along the 1,000-kilometer front line, Ukrainian soldiers endure relentless combat, with some expressing hope for more Western fighter planes to counter Russian airstrikes. Drone pilot “Hell” from the 113th Territorial Defense Brigade highlights morale struggles but draws inspiration from comrades who survived Russian occupation. The destruction of Vovchansk, once a symbol of triumph, now epitomizes the erosion of the national spirit. In Kyiv, student Anton Dubchak predicts a drawn-out peace process under Trump that may not favor Ukraine. Meanwhile, in Kharkiv’s bombed-out Saltivka district, pensioner Siria Shapovalova pleads for peace, saying, “It just can’t go on like this.” Others, like civil servant Oleksandra Frolova, insist Ukraine must determine its future, skeptical of foreign leaders’ promises to end the war quickly. Reuters

Zelensky congratulates Trump on the inauguration. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump on his inauguration, expressing the hope that his presidency will bring positive changes. “Today is a day of change and also a day of hope for the resolution of many problems, including global challenges,” Zelensky said. He voiced the optimism that the “peace through strength policy” announced by Trump would contribute to achieving a long-lasting and just peace. China Daily

Erdogan intends to discuss ending Russia’s war in Ukraine with Trump. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine during a press conference Monday with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s commitment to this goal and announced plans to discuss the matter with U.S. President Donald Trump. Fico acknowledged Slovakia’s limited influence but emphasized supporting efforts to end the war. Kyiv Independent

Russia’s primitive glide bombs are killing more civilians. Russian glide bombs, though primitive, continue to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses, causing devastating civilian casualties. A Jan. 8 attack on Zaporizhzhia killed 13 and injured 122, marking the deadliest strike in two years. Glide bombs, cheaply modified Soviet-era munitions, are increasingly precise and can bypass Ukraine’s advanced air defenses. In 2024, these weapons caused a threefold rise in fatalities and a sixfold increase in injuries compared to 2023. Russia’s evolving glide bombs now threaten areas 90 kilometers from launch sites, extending their reach. Experts urge Ukraine’s allies to accelerate F-16 deliveries to counter the bombers. Innovative defenses remain distant, leaving Ukrainian cities vulnerable. Kyiv Independent

Inside an Elite Ukrainian Unit’s Mission to Capture a North Korean Soldier. Ukrainian special forces recently captured a North Korean soldier in Russia’s Kursk region, marking the first confirmed detainment of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces. The mission involved navigating a minefield and negotiating with the injured soldier, who initially threatened to detonate a grenade. Russia and North Korea have not acknowledged the deployment of an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later showcased the captured soldiers, proposing their return to North Korea in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine detains two generals accused of negligence in defending against Russian offensive. Ukraine’s State Investigation Bureau (DBR) detained two generals and a colonel for alleged negligence in defending Kharkiv during Russia’s May 2024 offensive. The officers, including a former frontline commander, are accused of failing to prepare adequately, allowing Russian forces to advance several kilometers before being stopped 25 kilometers from Kharkiv. The assault prompted President Volodymyr Zelensky to dismiss military leaders and cancel foreign trips. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, was a key target during Russia’s 2022 invasion. The DBR collaborated with domestic intelligence, the defense ministry, and military command in the investigation, though the officers’ names were not disclosed. Reuters

Commander of scandal-hit Ukrainian brigade detained, accused of failing to report desertions. The commander of Ukraine’s 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade was detained on Monday for failing to address violations, including large-scale desertions, within his unit. The brigade, intended as a flagship project with foreign training and equipment from France and Germany, has faced severe organizational issues. Investigations revealed that most soldiers lacked experience, with over 1,700 reportedly going AWOL in 2024. Journalist Yurii Butusov highlighted chaotic management and inadequate recruitment, further compounded by the reassignment of qualified personnel. If convicted, the commander faces up to 10 years in prison. The brigade remains deployed near Pokrovsk. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence destroys locomotive in St. Petersburg. Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (DIU) set fire to a locomotive at the Ruchi depot in St. Petersburg, used for transporting munitions and supplies to Russian forces, according to DIU officers. The fire destroyed the locomotive’s control system, rendering it irreparable. This follows previous sabotage efforts targeting Russian rail logistics, including damaged locomotives in Moscow Oblast in December 2024 and a track explosion in Bryansk Oblast in 2023. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine says it’s working on its own air defense systems, responding to new Russian missile. Ukraine is developing domestically-produced air defense systems to counter Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which travels at Mach 10 and was used to target industrial sites in Dnipro in November 2024. General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the initiative, emphasizing the need for better air and missile defense capabilities. In 2024, Ukraine produced 30% of its military equipment domestically, with international partnerships boosting production. President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted joint projects with manufacturers like Germany’s Rheinmetall. Meanwhile, the UK announced the Gravehawk air defense system, which adapts air-to-air missiles for ground use, complementing Patriots and NASAMS to enhance Ukraine’s missile defense network. Business Insider

Putin’s torturers couldn’t break these Ukrainian prisoners. Ukrainian POWs, including Captains Yulian Pylypey and Serhiy Taraniuk, endured brutal torture in Russian captivity, facing beatings, electric shocks, and starvation. Captured during the defense of Mariupol in 2022, Pylypey spent 2½ years in prison, accused of fabricated war crimes, and subjected to relentless abuse aimed at breaking his will. Despite severe injuries, he resisted pressure to denounce Ukraine. Released in a September 2024 prisoner exchange, Pylypey and Taraniuk returned physically and mentally scarred, with many comrades still detained. Their resilience highlights the ongoing suffering of Ukrainian POWs and their unwavering commitment to their country. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine attacks Russian oil depot, aviation plant, command post overnight, military says. Ukrainian forces conducted overnight drone strikes on January 21, targeting Russia’s Liskinskaya oil depot in Voronezh Oblast, the Smolensk Aviation Plant, and a command post in Donetsk Oblast. The oil depot, previously hit on January 16, suffered damage to fuel tanks, causing a fire. Explosions were reported at the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which produces Su-25 military aircraft. Additionally, Ukraine targeted the Russian 29th Combined Arms Army’s command post in Volnovakha. Russia intercepted 55 drones in the large-scale attack. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s SBU detains chief military psychiatrist over suspected illicit enrichment. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) detained the Armed Forces’ chief psychiatrist, suspected of illicitly enriching himself by over $1 million during the ongoing war. The official, who also oversees military medical commission recruit evaluations, reportedly amassed undeclared assets, including luxury properties, cars, and land. Corruption allegations within military medical commissions have intensified scrutiny, following revelations about the ex-Odesa enlistment office chief’s $4.5 million in assets. Reforms to address corruption are planned by November 2025. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Jan. 20. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russian forces suffered over 434,000 casualties in 2024, including 150,000 killed in action. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his willingness to negotiate with the United States but maintained demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Gorbunov Aircraft Plant in Kazan, targeting Russia’s military production capacity. Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s defense industrial base are degrading Russian combat capabilities and artillery usage. A Russian milblogger reiterated complaints about inadequate quality control in Russian artillery shells.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump sees peace in Ukraine as a deal but refuses to play his winning hand. Timothy Ash critiques Donald Trump’s transactional approach to peace in Ukraine, arguing it wastes significant leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s reluctance to support Ukraine’s NATO membership, approve long-range missiles, or enhance aid weakens Kyiv’s security and emboldens Putin. Ash highlights that Russia needs peace more than the U.S. He warns that Trump’s concessions risk making Ukraine perpetually vulnerable, undermining European security and reconstruction. Ash urges Europe to take responsibility, proposing financial solutions and framing support as economically beneficial to appeal to Trump’s priorities. Kyiv Independent