Ukraine Update: Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Subscribe to The Cipher Brief for the global Open Source Report daily.

Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Standoff at Ukrainian Procurement Agency Threatens to Disrupt Weapons Supply. Ukraine’s defense procurement crisis has escalated, threatening to disrupt arms deliveries at a critical juncture in the war against Russia. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov dismissed Maryna Bezrukova, head of the procurement agency managing $7 billion in armaments, citing “unsatisfactory” performance. Bezrukova, whose tenure reportedly cut intermediary involvement from 82% to 12%, claims her dismissal violates legal and governance standards. Bezrukova also alleges ministry interference in procurement decisions, including a faulty mortar shell contract. Lawmakers and anti-corruption activists condemned Umerov’s move, warning of potential delays in weapons contracts and strained relations with international partners. Yuriy Hudymenko of the Defense Ministry’s Anti-Corruption Civil Council called it “a threat to defense readiness.” The dispute underscores internal challenges as Ukraine battles equipment shortages and a skeptical U.S. administration under President Donald Trump. Activists fear replacing Bezrukova with Umerov ally Arsen Zhumadilov undermines NATO-aligned reforms. Amid battlefield pressures, Kyiv’s ability to maintain Western support and sustain its defense hinges on resolving this high-stakes conflict swiftly. New York Times Bloomberg

Amid talk of a ceasefire, Ukraine’s front line is crumbling. Russia’s capture of Velyka Novosilka, a small Donbas town, underscores the grinding, incremental nature of its advances. The six-day battle ended with Ukrainian forces retreating under cover of mist, many struggling to escape Russian drones and encirclement. Despite heavy casualties and rudimentary tactics, Russia’s infantry advances succeeded in forcing Ukraine to yield ground, revealing cracks in its defenses. Ukraine’s shortage of troops and equipment compounds its challenges. “We struggle to replace our battlefield losses,” admitted Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, while retired commander “Kupol” described the strategy as “plugging holes.” Captain Ivan Sekach recounted a tank’s swift destruction by drones, emblematic of modern warfare’s evolving dangers. Though Russia’s tactics lack sophistication, its forces and support from allies like North Korea enable slow progress. Military intelligence officer Andriy Cherniak noted that Russia’s reserves and weapons could sustain the war for years, but its broader capacity to exploit these tactical gains remains uncertain. The Economist

Russia intensifies attacks near Pokrovsk, seeks to encircle Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have intensified efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, employing smaller, tactical units to avoid direct urban battles, a military spokesperson said Monday. This marks a shift from mass frontal assaults to more strategic maneuvers. Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, has been under heavy fighting for months. Clashes continue along multiple axes, including Lyman, Siversk, and Kramatorsk, as Russia seeks to sever Ukrainian supply lines. Despite the sustained offensive, Moscow has not succeeded in outflanking Pokrovsk or forcing Ukrainian forces to abandon the area. Kyiv Independent

Military intelligence denies its head gave Ukraine until summer to launch talks or endanger the country’s existence. On Monday, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) denied claims that its chief, Kyrylo Budanov, warned of threats to Ukraine’s survival if peace talks didn’t start by summer. The alleged statement, reported by Ukrainska Pravda, was dismissed as false by HUR and opposition lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko, who clarified that Budanov only warned of potential frontline collapses. The controversy arises amid growing expectations of U.S.-led peace negotiations under Donald Trump’s presidency, with his envoy, Keith Kellogg, aiming to resolve the war within 100 days. As Ukraine enters its fourth war year, manpower shortages and Russian advances weigh heavily on its defense efforts. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky on demobilization: If half the army quits, Putin ‘will kill us all.’ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky defended the current mobilization rules, which prevent soldiers from leaving military service. He said relaxing the rules at war would jeopardize Ukraine’s survival. “If half the army goes home, Putin will kill us all,” he told Italian journalist Cecilia Sala. “The wartime situation calls for mobilization of people and all the resources we have in the country. Absolutely all of them,” Zelensky said in the interview, excerpts of which were posted on the president’s Telegram channel. However, Zelensky rejected lowering the conscription age further, citing insufficient weaponry to support additional troops despite manpower shortages at the front. Some soldiers have not had leave since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022, adding to the immense toll on forces and families. Last year’s reforms reduced the draft age from 27 to 25, narrowed exemptions, and increased penalties for evasion, but Ukraine’s forces remain vastly outnumbered by Russia. Zelensky framed the war as a race against time, urging international pressure on Moscow to end the war. Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine’s territory and continues advancing in the eastern Donbas region. Reuters Ukrinform Interview

Zelensky blasts Ukraine for relinquishing nuclear arms without strong security guarantees. In an interview with Italy’s Il Foglio published Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Ukraine’s 1990s decision to relinquish nuclear weapons without securing robust security guarantees, calling it “stupid, absolutely stupid, and illogical.” Zelensky argued that NATO membership was the only viable security guarantee then and now, adding, “If I were to exchange nuclear weapons, I would exchange them for something very strong that can actually stop any aggressor.” He suggested Ukraine should seek security arrangements akin to Israel’s U.S.-backed support, including technology and air defense. Despite allied pledges of NATO membership, Zelensky noted resistance from the U.S., Germany, and Hungary, emphasizing Ukraine’s ongoing vulnerability in Russia’s war. Kyiv independent

Zelensky Presses Ukraine’s Cause with Gathered World Leaders In Poland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky marked the 80th anniversary of Auschwitz’s liberation in Poland on Monday while meeting world leaders to bolster Ukraine’s defense and European Union accession efforts. He discussed security guarantees and European peacekeeping with French President Emmanuel Macron and received EU support assurances from European Council President Antonio Costa. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership and commemorated Holocaust victims at Kyiv’s Babyn Yar memorial. Meanwhile, Russia intensified assaults on Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetsk, with Ukrainian forces repelling most attacks. Drone strikes hit infrastructure near Romania, and Kharkiv faced Russian bombardment. Zelensky reshuffled eastern military leadership amid ongoing challenges. RFE/RL

Allies Allocate $1.5 Billion For Weapons Production by Ukrainian Defense Industry. Ukraine’s defense industry has received over $1.5 billion to boost weapons production from nine allied countries, including the U.S., Canada, and European Union nations. This funding, part of the “ZBROYARI: Manufacturing Freedom” initiative, supports domestic arms manufacturing, such as drones, anti-tank missiles, and Bohdana howitzers. Canada contributed $95 million for drones, while the Netherlands allocated €37.5 million for maritime and FPV drones. Partnerships with companies like Germany’s Rheinmetall enable advanced vehicle production. The EU pledged €400 million from frozen Russian asset profits. The initiative aims to secure $10 billion for Ukrainian defense by year’s end. Militarnyi

Russia pressuring relatives of Ukrainian POWs to collaborate, officials say. Russian intelligence and military forces are pressuring families of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) to collaborate, according to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for POWs. Relatives are contacted after captures and coerced into providing money, sensitive information, or illegal actions, often under emotional distress. These tactics aim to destabilize Ukraine and exploit captives for leverage. Ukraine has documented severe Geneva Convention violations by Russia, including torture and over 100 POW executions in 2024. Recent investigations include the summary execution of six Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk Oblast. Russia has also been accused of delaying prisoner swaps and spreading disinformation about the process. Kyiv Independent Wall Street Journal

Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery halts operations after drone strikes, sources say. Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery halted operations after a Ukrainian drone strike last week, industry sources revealed on Monday. The attack ignited oil storage and damaged key equipment, including a railway loading rack and a hydrotreater unit. Oil processing and railway loadings have been suspended since Friday. Rosneft, which owns the refinery, declined to comment. The plant, responsible for 5% of Russia’s refining capacity in 2024, may have its output compensated by other refineries in Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl. Reuters

Russia issues school textbook saying it was ‘forced’ to march into Ukraine. On Monday, Russia unveiled a school textbook titled Military History of Russia, which justifies the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a defensive necessity. Edited by Vladimir Medinsky, a Vladimir Putin aide and co-author of Russia’s primary history textbook, the three-volume set targets students aged 15 and older. It likens the invasion to the Soviet Union’s fight against the Nazis and claims the West ignored Russia’s security concerns, citing NATO expansion and the 2014 ousting of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president. The book highlights Russian battlefield “heroism” and parallels modern tactics with Soviet strategies from World War II. Ivan Basik, a military historian, emphasized the textbook’s role in framing the conflict as “forced” and inevitable due to Western and Ukrainian actions. Ukraine and NATO reject such claims, labeling the war as unprovoked aggression. The release underscores the Kremlin’s effort to instill its war narrative among Russian youth. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 24 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed four civilians and injured at least 24 in the past day, authorities said Tuesday. Strikes in Kherson Oblast killed two and injured two, while two were killed in Donetsk Oblast. Odesa’s drone attack injured four and caused fires. Five were injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, three in Kharkiv Oblast, and five in Sumy Oblast. Kyiv Oblast saw damage to a car museum and buildings but no casualties. Russian drone launches targeted 14 regions, with 65 intercepted. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russia’s air attacks spark fire in Kharkiv, mayor says. A Russian air attack overnight ignited a large fire at a private business in Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on Tuesday. Emergency services responded to the scene; no casualties have been reported. Kharkiv has faced frequent shelling since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Reuters

Justice Ministry seeks to confiscate Russian oil company Tatneft’s assets in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Justice Ministry has petitioned to confiscate Russian oil company Tatneft’s assets, valued at $47 million, citing its ties to Russia’s military-industrial complex. The assets, including gas stations, oil depots, and vehicles in Kharkiv and Poltava, contribute to Russia’s budget. Deputy Minister Iryna Bogatyk highlighted Tatneft’s production of military-grade fuels. Additional lawsuits target sanctioned assets of Ukrainians linked to Russian interests. Fossil fuel exports remain vital to Russia’s war funding. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine war is a testing ground for drones that can evade jamming systems. Ukraine’s war has become a testing ground for fiber-optic cable drones, evading traditional jamming systems using a wired connection. Ukrainian soldiers are deploying these drones to target Russian forces. While heavier and less agile than wireless drones, they provide clearer video feeds and are undetectable by jammers, making them a challenge for countermeasures. Experts warn that the technology could pose global security risks, as it’s difficult to counter. Ukrainian manufacturers rapidly advance designs while countries and defense firms race to develop effective responses. Observers note that this innovation is reshaping modern warfare and security planning. CBC

For Russian Forces in Ukraine, It’s Now Normal To Ride Into Battle In A Compact Car. Facing catastrophic losses of over 15,000 armored vehicles, Russian forces in Ukraine are increasingly resorting to using unarmored civilian cars like Lada Zhigulis and Nivas for assaults. This shift highlights the depletion of Russia’s armored vehicle reserves, as even Cold War-era stockpiles have become unusable. Analysts note that many stored vehicles are inoperable after years of neglect. With annual production far below losses, Russia’s mechanized capabilities are declining, leading to a reliance on compact cars for battle. The normalization of such tactics signals a critical tipping point in Russia’s military operations, raising questions about its long-term sustainability. Forbes

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Jan. 27. Ukrainian forces struck Russian long-range drone storage facilities in Oryol Oblast on Sunday, destroying over 200 Shahed drones and causing secondary explosions. The European Union proposed an aid package to address Moldova and Transnistria’s gas crisis, countering Russian energy leverage.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Toretsk after recent Russian advances near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump’s Ukraine plan will expose our weakness. William Hague critiques Donald Trump’s inaugural rhetoric on expanding U.S. territory, warning that such ambitions risk alienating allies and emboldening adversaries like Russia and China. He emphasizes the need for diplomacy over intimidation, citing Greenland and the Arctic as examples where strategic goals could be achieved without coercion. Hague argues Trump’s aggressive use of American power strains alliances with countries like Denmark, Canada, and Jordan, potentially undermining trust needed for greater challenges, such as ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. He stresses that resolving Ukraine’s war will require sustained U.S. leadership and allied military commitments, highlighting Europe’s military inadequacies. The Times

Opinion: Trump Still Doesn’t Understand the Ukraine War. Garry Kasparov critiques Donald Trump’s approach to Russia’s war on Ukraine, emphasizing that Trump’s inconsistent foreign policy could provide Vladimir Putin with the lifeline he needs. Kasparov highlights that Putin’s regime is committed to Ukraine’s destruction as a sovereign nation. He warns against appeasement, noting that any temporary ceasefire would only benefit Russia and strengthen Putin’s hold on power. Kasparov stresses that negotiations excluding Ukraine or Europe are unacceptable and that America must prioritize Ukraine’s sovereignty. He argues that defeating Russia is far cheaper than the consequences of a Ukrainian loss and calls for decisive Western support for Ukraine. The Bulwark

Opinion: Czechs Prepare to Evict Pro-Ukraine Government. Jan Macháček argues that Central Europe faces political upheaval in 2025, with fall elections in the Czech Republic likely ousting Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s pro-Ukraine coalition. The ANO party, under Andrej Babiš, is poised to take power, potentially ending key Ukrainian military aid initiatives. While praised for strong Ukraine support, Fiala’s government suffers from domestic policy failures, including stagnant wages and high energy costs. ANO’s alignment with Kremlin-friendly European factions and Ukraine-skeptical rhetoric signals challenges for Kyiv. Macháček warns that losing Prague’s backing would be a serious setback for Ukraine amid growing regional political shifts. Center for European Policy Analysis

Opinion: Ukraine is pinning hopes on Putin exasperating Trump. Jamie Dettmer argues that both Kyiv and Washington are clinging to flawed assumptions about ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Ukraine hopes Donald Trump will grow frustrated with Vladimir Putin’s refusal to negotiate and back Ukraine more forcefully, while Trump believes he can pressure Putin into a deal with economic threats. However, analysts suggest Putin is unlikely to negotiate, given his hardened resolve and domestic support for the war, which has entrenched economic elites and benefited Russia’s poorer regions. Dettmer warns that Putin might exploit Trump’s dealmaking ambitions, potentially delaying stronger U.S. support and aiding Russia’s battlefield objectives. Politico EU