Ukraine Update: Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Biden leaves nearly $4 billion in US aid to Ukraine unused. What will happen to it under Trump? President Joe Biden’s administration is leaving $3.8 billion in unused Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) aid for Ukraine to the incoming administration of Donald Trump. Biden prioritized rapid military aid shipments during his final months, but logistical and readiness challenges prevented full utilization of the funds. Critics, including Daria Kaleniuk from Kyiv’s Anti-Corruption Action Center, argue that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry failed to adapt to delays and missed opportunities to redirect funding to other arms assistance, including lower-priority equipment that might still be available in stockpiles. “By the time we realized, it was too late,” Kaleniuk said. Trump now controls the unused funds. Analysts suggest he may leverage this as a political tool, though Republican skepticism toward foreign aid complicates prospects for additional packages. Under Biden, Ukraine received $66.5 billion in security aid, including HIMARS and Patriot systems, but delays in providing advanced weaponry weakened Ukraine’s defenses. This contributed to territorial losses, such as Avdiivka. The transition raises concerns over potential delays in decision-making under Trump. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Suffers Power Cuts Following Large-scale Russian Missile Strike. Ukraine experienced a large-scale Russian missile attack on Wednesday morning, leading to emergency power cuts in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kirovohrad regions. The governor of Ukraine’s western Lviv region said two facilities, in the Drohobych and Stryi districts, were damaged in the attack. In neighboring Ivano-Frankivsk, the governor said local air defenses were fending off Russian attacks on facilities there. Ukrenergo, the national grid operator, reported the outages. Ukrainian air defense indicated that western and northwestern areas were primarily targeted. This marks the first such attack in 2025 and follows Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian energy and military facilities in the Volga region. Bloomberg Reuters New York Times

A final rundown of the drones committed to Ukraine by the Biden administration. The Biden administration has provided extensive drone support to Ukraine during its presidency, showcasing a range of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and combat. Here are some of the key drone platforms:

• Phoenix Ghost: A family of loitering munitions with advanced autonomous capabilities, including the Dominator and Disruptor, offering long-range, GPS-denied operations and multi-mission capabilities.

• Switchblade: Kamikaze drones in two variants (300 and 600), with precision targeting, anti-armor capabilities, and rapid deployment.

• Altius-600: A lightweight, tube-launched drone with ISR and electronic warfare applications, operable from various platforms.

• Jump 20: A Group 3 VTOL drone providing 13+ hours of endurance and multi-sensor ISR capabilities.

• Black Hornet: Pocket-sized ISR drones delivering live video and thermal imaging for dismounted troops.

• Scan Eagle: A long-endurance ISR platform with altitudes up to 19,500 feet and 18 hours of operation.

• Penguin: Versatile, long-endurance UAS with multiple configurations for tactical operations.

• Raven and Puma: Portable, hand-launched ISR drones with varied endurance and payload capabilities.

• Cyberlux K8: Lightweight, FPV-enabled drones designed for beyond-line-of-sight engagements. DefenseScoop

Russia sees a shift from Trump towards recognizing ‘realities’ in Ukraine. Russia claims a shift in tone from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, suggesting recognition of “realities” in Ukraine, including Russia’s territorial control. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed Trump’s openness to diplomacy. Lavrov said that Russia was ready to discuss security guarantees “for the country that is now called Ukraine,” but Moscow would need assurances that it could not be threatened on its western borders with Europe. Lavrov specifically praised Trump’s comments earlier this month in which he said that NATO’s plans to open its doors to Ukraine had led to the hostilities. “NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that” Lavrov said. “It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a U.S. but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements.” Trump and his aides also hint at limits to retaking all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, raising concerns in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push for NATO membership and U.S. security guarantees, fearing Trump may pressure Ukraine into concessions or reduce U.S. military support. Reuters Associated Press

Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, an economist says. Russia’s financial reserves are rapidly depleting and could run out by fall 2025, jeopardizing its war efforts, according to Swedish economist Anders Åslund. Liquid reserves in the National Wealth Fund have declined from $117 billion in 2021 to $31 billion as Russia plans a record $130.5 billion defense budget for 2025. Western sanctions have restricted borrowing, foreign debt has dropped sharply, and economic challenges such as inflation, currency decline, and labor shortages persist. Åslund predicts budget cuts, price controls, and rationing could follow, limiting Russia’s ability to sustain the war and heightening economic instability for President Vladimir Putin. Business Insider

Zelensky visits Poland after progress in World War II dispute. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Warsaw on Wednesday following progress in resolving a historical dispute over World War II exhumations. The Volhynia massacres (1943-45), during which over 100,000 Poles were killed by Ukrainian nationalists and thousands of Ukrainians died in reprisals, have strained ties. Poland recently hailed a breakthrough after Ukraine agreed to allow exhumations, with work expected to start in April. Zelenskyy will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to discuss the issue and broader cooperation. Poland’s EU presidency prioritizes Ukraine’s security as Kyiv seeks support amid Russia’s war. Reuters

Kallas Says Europe Should Increase Pressure on Moscow In Push To End War. In an interview on Tuesday with RFE/RL and European newspapers, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized that Kyiv and its allies must maintain pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential peace negotiations. “We should not underestimate our own capabilities and overestimate the Russians,” she said, citing Russia’s economic strain, depleted cash reserves, and reliance on North Korean soldiers as evidence of vulnerability. Kallas stressed that unity within the EU on sanctions and military aid remains essential despite resistance from some governments. She warned against any cease-fire allowing Russia to regroup and advocated for sustainable peace. On U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s claims of swiftly ending the war, Kallas said any agreement must include Europe and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. She also highlighted the need to address attacks on critical infrastructure, urging enhanced maritime law and tighter sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet circumventing oil sanctions. RFE/RL

Zelensky says that equipping troops takes priority over lowering the draft age. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized on Tuesday that Ukraine’s priority is equipping its military rather than lowering the draft age further, citing the need to sustain over 100 brigades with adequate resources. While U.S. lawmakers and NATO allies have encouraged Ukraine to reduce the draft age from 25 to 18 to address manpower shortages, Kyiv has resisted, pointing to equipment deficits and the economic strain of drafting younger workers. In April 2024, Ukraine lowered the draft age to 25, adding 50,000 troops, short of the military’s needs. Kyiv Independent

Russia says its forces captured two settlements in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday reported capturing Terny near Siversk and Neskuchne in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledged fighting in these areas but stated that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks on Neskuchne. Russian advances include capturing Kurakhove and approaching Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. Pokrovsk’s colliery, vital for Ukraine’s steel industry, has suspended production. Independent verification of battlefield reports remains unavailable, though Ukraine’s DeepState blog confirmed some Russian gains near Neskuchne. Reuters

Zelensky releases an additional video of captured North Korean soldier. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has released another video of a captured North Korean soldier, accusing Russia of using North Korean troops to prolong its war. The soldier, captured in Russia’s Kursk region, revealed a limited understanding of Ukraine and carried falsified Russian identification. South Korea, recognizing all Koreans as citizens under its constitution, announced plans to discuss the transfer of these POWs from Ukraine. Neither captured soldier expressed interest in defecting, and both governments are collaborating to exchange information about the captives. This highlights Russia’s controversial use of foreign troops and Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to expose such practices internationally. Yonhap News Agency Militarnyi

Australia summons Russian ambassador over reports captured soldier killed. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Wednesday that the Russian ambassador was summoned over reports that Oscar Jenkins, a Melbourne teacher captured last year while fighting for Ukraine, had been killed by Russia. “We’ll await the facts to come out. But if there has been any harm caused to Oscar Jenkins, that’s absolutely reprehensible, and the Australian government will take the strongest action possible,” Albanese said. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that all options, including expelling the Russian ambassador, remain on the table. Jenkins, reportedly captured last year, appeared in a video in combat uniform. Australia has strongly supported Ukraine, supplying military aid and imposing sanctions on around 1,000 Russian individuals and entities. Reuters

Drone hits distillery in Russia’s Tambov Oblast, local media reports. A drone reportedly struck a distillery in Novaya Lyada, Tambov Oblast, Russia, on Tuesday night, causing a fire near a military training ground, according to local residents via Astra Telegram. Russian officials claimed the drone was intercepted, exploding in a tree. This incident follows Ukraine’s largest drone and missile strikes on Russian military and industrial sites on January 13-14, targeting chemical plants, refineries, and Engels airbase ammunition depots, as confirmed by Ukrainian Security Service sources. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 14. The Kremlin insists on achieving its invasion goals, including Ukraine’s demilitarization, government dissolution, and NATO exclusion, in any peace talks. Nikolai Patrushev ruled out Russia ceding occupied Ukrainian territories and claimed sham referendums legitimized Russia’s annexation. Russian officials deny Ukraine’s independent identity to justify efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state. Patrushev emphasized exclusive U.S.-Russia negotiations, sidelining Ukraine and other Western nations. Potential Russian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast may serve propaganda purposes but lack tactical significance. Ukraine conducted extensive strikes on Russian military and industrial targets overnight on Jan. 13-14. Ukraine and Moldova face challenges addressing Transnistria’s gas crisis amid resistance to external aid. The Kremlin exploits Moldova’s energy crisis to justify potential future aggression. Russia experienced a widespread internet outage linked to its censorship system on Jan. 14.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Stuey of War

Opinion: Don’t Give Putin an End-Game Victory in Ukraine. Vitalij Garber warns against granting Russian President Vladimir Putin a perceived victory in Ukraine by freezing the war or abandoning support for Kyiv. Garber argues that allowing Russia to retain occupied territories would elevate Putin to national hero status and reward his imperialist ambitions. He highlights the economic and security risks to the West, noting that Russia would gain access to valuable resources in Donbas while propaganda-driven nationalism continues to motivate its population. Garber criticizes the misconception that negotiations with dictators yield fair compromises, cautioning that rewarding aggression now will embolden future conflicts, costing the West both financially and morally. He emphasizes that supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty is essential to preventing long-term global instability. Center for European Policy Analysis