Ukraine Update: Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience, and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

‘Will President Trump even notice Europe?’ asks Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, urged Europe to bolster its defense capabilities, warning against reliance on the United States under Donald Trump’s presidency. “Will President Trump even notice Europe? Does he see NATO as necessary?” Zelensky asked. Highlighting Europe’s limited influence, Zelensky called for deploying at least 200,000 European troops to Ukraine post-ceasefire to complement Ukraine’s 800,000-strong forces and deter Russia. He endorsed Trump’s proposal for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, emphasizing Europe’s need for unity and stronger security guarantees. Zelensky dismissed Russian demands to downsize Ukraine’s military and criticized Europe’s role as a bystander in negotiations. Financial Times Reuters Politico EU

Trump praises Zelensky’s desire for peace, calls Putin smart but disrespectful. During Tuesday’s news conference in the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump repeated his assertion that Russia would have never launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he had been president. “Russia would have never gone into Ukraine. I had a very strong understanding with (Vladimir) Putin. That would have never, ever happened. He disrespected (ex-President Joe) Biden. Very simple. He disrespects people. He’s smart. He understands. He disrespected Biden,” Trump said. He left open the possibility of sending more weapons to Ukraine, but said that “the European Union should be paying a lot more than they are paying. Because under Biden, we’re in there for $200 billion more. Now it affects them more than it affects us. We have an ocean in between. The European Union should equalize…what are we stupid? I guess the answer is yes. They must think so. But the European Union takes advantage of us tremendously on trade and always have.” He renewed his call on NATO’s 32 members to spend 5% of their GDP on defense and again urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to do more to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. “He’s not done very much on that,” Trump said. “He’s got a lot of power.” He said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “would like to have peace, he’s told me that very strongly, but it takes two to tango.” He repeated that millions of people are being killed in the war, with cities resembling “demolition sites.” He said that “many more people died than you are reporting. I am not blaming you for that. I’m blaming maybe our government for not wanting to release those numbers. Many more people died than what you know about.” Sky News The New Voice of Ukraine

Trump Suggests New Russia Sanctions If Putin Refuses Ukraine Peace Talks. President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, suggested he would hit Russia with new sanctions if President Vladimir Putin refuses peace talks to end the Ukraine war. “Sounds like it,” Trump told reporters when asked about the prospect of additional sanctions if Putin refuses to negotiate. Trump did not offer details on potential new measures. He left open the prospect of additional weapons for Ukraine. He also criticized Putin’s ally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, for doing little to end the war, urging him to “get it settled.” Trump reiterated his intention to speak with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky soon and called for European allies to match U.S. defense aid levels. Analysts believe Putin sees no incentive to halt the fighting despite Russia’s heavy losses, which could put the Kremlin leader on a collision course with Trump. “He should make a deal. I think he’s destroying Russia by not making a deal,” Trump said of Putin. “Russia’s going to be in big trouble.” RFE/RL

Desperate for peace, Ukraine embraces Trump. Ukrainian leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos see Donald Trump’s presidency as a potential breakthrough for ending Russia’s war. Unlike Joe Biden’s measured, crisis-management approach, Trump’s assertiveness fuels optimism for decisive action. President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Trump’s business instincts could pressure Moscow into negotiations, while Kurt Volker calls 2025 a “year of action.” Trump’s unpredictability may require Ukraine to make painful concessions, such as accepting NATO’s closed door and possibly shelving Kyiv’s ambitions to retake the 20 percent of the nation that Russia occupies. However, Ukrainians hope Trump’s energy policies and willingness to impose harsher sanctions on the Kremlin, while keeping military aid flowing to Ukraine, will hasten the end of the war. Despite divided opinions in Ukraine, Trump is seen by many as a disruptor capable of delivering the certainty and stabilization Biden’s administration lacked. Zelensky has aligned with Trump’s goals, emphasizing Ukraine’s partnership and placing responsibility for continuing the war on Vladimir Putin. Politico EU

Ukraine’s NATO prospects depend on Trump, Zelensky says. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine’s NATO membership depends on U.S. President Donald Trump. “If Trump is ready to see Ukraine in NATO, we will be in NATO. If he is not, we will not,” Zelensky said. He identified Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. as opposing Ukraine’s membership. Reports suggest Trump’s team is exploring a 20-year delay in Ukraine’s accession, paired with arms supplies and European peacekeepers, though Moscow rejects this proposal. Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2022 but awaits formal acceptance. Kyiv Independent

Trump’s Ukraine Envoy Has a Hard Climb to Any Peace Deal. Retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, appointed by Donald Trump as special envoy to Ukraine, faces skepticism over his ability to secure peace to end Russia’s war. The Kremlin has dismissed Kellogg as a “Cold War relic” and mocked his proposed peace plan as ineffective, calling it a mix of “gingerbread and whips.” Russian media also highlighted Kellogg’s pro-Ukraine stance, citing his daughter’s humanitarian work in the region as evidence of bias. Kellogg’s plan, developed with the America First Policy Institute, suggests pausing NATO membership for Ukraine and offering Russia sanctions relief in exchange for a peace agreement. Critics, including John Bolton, doubt Kellogg’s independence, arguing he will follow Trump’s directives, potentially allowing Vladimir Putin to manipulate negotiations. Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that Russia’s attacks signal bleak prospects for meaningful progress. Wall Street Journal

Russia says it sees window of opportunity to negotiate with Trump administration. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Wednesday that Moscow sees “a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one,” to negotiate with President Donald Trump’s administration. Speaking at a Moscow think tank, Ryabkov contrasted Trump’s approach with what he called the “hopelessness” of the Biden administration, emphasizing the need to assess how to maximize opportunities and minimize risks with Washington. Trump, who took office on Monday, has warned of additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, though he has provided no specifics. Reuters

Trump’s aid freeze leaves weapons flowing to Ukraine. President Donald Trump froze all U.S. foreign aid for 90 days, but Ukraine’s military assistance remains unaffected. Key programs like the Presidential Drawdown Authority, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and Foreign Military Financing are exempt. However, U.S. Agency for International Development-run reconstruction initiatives, including energy restoration and demining efforts, face uncertainty under the freeze. The Biden administration preemptively secured $50 billion in funds via the World Bank, backed by interest on frozen Russian assets, insulating Ukraine’s budget. Nonetheless, the freeze disrupts civil society and journalism funding, raising questions about U.S. long-term support for rebuilding Ukraine. Trump’s order will review foreign aid for alignment with U.S. goals. Russell T. Vought, Trump’s nominee for budget chief, has avoided committing to future military aid. While the U.S. remains Ukraine’s top donor, Trump’s skepticism of aid and emphasis on greater European contributions may mean less U.S. aid for Ukraine. Politico EU

In Davos, a Ukrainian Billionaire is Fighting for Kyiv’s Cause. Victor Pinchuk, a 64-year-old Ukrainian billionaire and oligarch, is a pivotal advocate for Ukraine’s integration into the West. Known for avoiding media attention, he leverages his influence through initiatives like Ukraine House at the World Economic Forum and the Yalta European Strategy (YES), drawing international leaders and celebrities to support Ukraine’s cause. Despite his wealth—estimated at $2.3 billion—Pinchuk’s assets, including factories in his native Dnipropetrovsk region, are endangered by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Pinchuk’s reputation is complex. He gained wealth during Ukraine’s post-Soviet privatization and has faced criticism for advocating territorial compromises with Russia. Yet, he is also seen as a bridge-builder, using connections with figures like Donald Trump and employing lobbyists to promote Ukraine’s interests in the U.S. While Ukraine’s tycoons adapt to wartime challenges, Pinchuk bolsters his patriotic credentials, organizing aid and cultivating alliances, aiming to secure influence in a transformed, postwar Ukraine. Bloomberg

Ukraine is trying to get its refugees back from Germany. Ukraine is urging its refugees in Germany to return home as the war with Russia approaches its third anniversary. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov announced plans to establish “unity hubs” in Berlin and beyond to assist refugees with job placement, housing, and education. These centers aim to balance support for those staying in Germany with encouraging voluntary repatriation to bolster Ukraine’s declining population and workforce. Kyiv is prioritizing workers in reconstruction, energy, and defense, exempting them from military service. Germany has welcomed 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, but mixed opinions persist about their integration and return policies. Politico EU

ANALYSIS–Putin Is Not Yet Desperate. While Russia’s economy is strained, it remains capable of sustaining Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Heavy defense spending fuels economic growth through military production and recruitment, but neglect of social services and infrastructure is causing inflation, labor shortages, and a weakening ruble. Rising wages and war-related payments temporarily bolster public support despite growing inequalities. Western hopes that economic pressure will force Russia into negotiations are premature. Putin prioritizes denying Ukraine sovereignty over addressing economic challenges, viewing Kyiv’s independence as a greater threat than financial strain. Structural issues, compounded by sanctions, will likely deepen by 2026, but this timeline requires the West to support Ukraine strongly. The Kremlin is expected to persist in its war-driven policies, using resources to prolong the conflict rather than pursuing peace. While planning for Russia’s eventual economic reckoning, Ukraine’s allies must prepare for a prolonged confrontation. Foreign Affairs.

Fighting Alongside Russia, North Koreans Wage Their Own War. North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia’s Kursk region are fighting alongside Moscow’s forces with unique tactics, Ukrainian troops report. Unlike Russian soldiers, North Koreans advance without armored support, rarely retreat, and operate under strict discipline, often sacrificing themselves to avoid capture. Ukrainian forces describe them as “highly motivated” and “very strong,” with one platoon commander saying, “It feels like they came here to die, and they know it.” Deployed since late 2024, approximately half of the 11,000 North Korean troops have been killed or injured. Their presence complicates Ukraine’s defense, forcing adaptations in tactics and mine placement. New York Times

Ukraine’s Special Forces say they killed 21 North Korean soldiers, show combat footage. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces reported Wednesday killing 21 and wounding 40 North Korean soldiers during an eight-hour battle in Russia’s Kursk Oblast before retreating. Video footage shows North Korean troops advancing and engaging in close combat. The Ukrainian unit exhausted two-thirds of its ammunition before withdrawing. Russia has deployed 12,000 North Korean soldiers in the region, with 4,000 casualties reported. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 29 over past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed at least two people and injured 29, regional authorities said Wednesday. Strikes hit Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Casualties included 10 injured in Kharkiv Oblast, where drone strikes targeted Kupiansk and surrounding areas. In Kherson Oblast, one civilian was killed and 11 injured, while Mykolaiv Oblast saw two injuries and significant residential damage. Over 70 homes were affected in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Apocalypse meow: cat noises ‘lure Russian troops to booby-traps.’ A Russian sapper claimed Ukrainian forces use recordings of cat meows to lure invading soldiers into opening booby-trapped wardrobes and cupboards in eastern Ukraine. The unverifiable statement was made on TV Zvezda, a Russian defense ministry channel. Ukraine has not commented on the claim. Russia, known as a cat-loving nation, reportedly uses cats in trenches to combat rodents and boost morale. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have faced issues with rodents damaging supplies and fortifications. Animal welfare groups report millions of pets abandoned during the war. The conflict has also led to increases in rabies cases and wild animal populations in Ukraine’s Donbas region. The Times

Kyiv court arrests 3 senior officers accused of failed defense of Kharkiv Oblast. A Kyiv court arrested Generals Yurii Halushkin and Artur Horbenko, along with Colonel Illia Lapin, accusing them of negligence during the failed defense of Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024. The Russian offensive advanced several kilometers before stalling near Kharkiv, sparking outrage over poor defense planning. The officers are charged with failing to fortify positions and unauthorized battlefield withdrawals. They face up to 10 years in prison amid broader concerns over military mismanagement. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv court arrests former host of pro-Russian channels Max Nazarov. A Kyiv court has detained former pro-Russian TV host Max Nazarov (real name Nazar Diorditsa) for 60 days on charges of spreading Kremlin propaganda, with bail set at Hr 12 million ($285,000). The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) accused Nazarov of using his platform to justify Russian aggression and war crimes, citing evidence from searches of his home. Nazarov, previously associated with pro-Russian channels Nash and NewsOne, shifted to YouTube after their closures. Nash was linked to wanted pro-Russian politician Yevheniy Muraiev, while NewsOne was tied to Viktor Medvedchuk, who now lives in exile in Russia. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 21. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Jan. 20-21, targeting Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries to degrade military capacity. Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian command posts in the rear, with recent strikes on the 29th Combined Arms Army in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed deepening cooperation in a Jan. 21 phone call. Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexander Khinshtein has failed to address local discontent over Russia’s inadequate response to Ukraine’s incursion into the region. Russian ultranationalist milbloggers criticized the Ministry of Defense for not holding military command accountable for recent failures.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces regained positions near Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Why Are Western Companies Still Financing Putin’s War? Agathe Demarais argues that Western companies operating in Russia bolster the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, contributing approximately $16 billion in taxes since 2022—funding resources like missiles and drones. Many companies remain, citing humanitarian concerns or potential future market gains, but Demarais highlights the flawed economics of this stance. Russia controls their revenues, restricts asset sales, and imposes punitive financial conditions, making operations untenable. She contends that moral and economic arguments favor leaving, as staying supports Moscow’s war effort and undermines global sanctions. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Russia’s Energy Squeeze on Moldova. Kurt Volker argues that Russia is leveraging Moldova’s energy dependence to destabilize its pro-Western government. Following Ukraine’s cutoff of Russian gas transits, Moldova faces rising electricity costs and blackouts, which Moscow hopes will shift public opinion toward pro-Russian parties ahead of the 2025 elections. Moldova’s structural limitations prevent immediate energy independence, with key EU interconnectors delayed until 2026. Volker advocates for urgent U.S. and European Union support to mitigate the crisis, including financing for alternative energy and gradual consumer price adjustments. Ensuring Moldova’s energy transition aligns with Western interests could diminish Russian influence and secure Moldova’s EU and NATO aspirations. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Trump’s promise of strong US leadership should begin with Ukraine. Arseniy Yatsenyuk urges U.S. President Donald Trump to prioritize supporting Ukraine, arguing that defeating Russian aggression is essential to preserving the international rules-based order. He highlights the global stakes, including the threat posed by Russia’s authoritarian allies like Iran, China, and North Korea. Yatsenyuk calls for increased military aid to Ukraine, stricter sanctions on Russia, and the development of a “Trump Plan” to fund Ukraine’s recovery using confiscated Russian assets. He emphasizes that strong U.S. leadership is critical to ensuring Ukraine’s security and achieving sustainable peace, warning that Western weakness only emboldens Moscow and its allies. Atlantic Council