What’s in the bag, Olaf? Not much, mainly hot air.

Critics say that the German chancellor simply used Ukraine for electioneering. And true, it was difficult to see any other point of Olaf Scholz's sudden visit.

(Olaf Scholz arriving to Kyiv, Dec. 2, 2024. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa/picture alliance)

BY MICHAEL ANDERSEN

We don’t know what was in Olaf’s shiny aluminium bag.

It is an unusual piece of hand luggage for a high-level politician to carry around on an official visit. But then again, Olaf Scholz – Germany’s chancellor since 2021 – is somewhat unusual, at least regarding Ukraine.

On the one hand, Scholz blabbers the same niceties as all of his colleagues – the leaders of NATO countries – “with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and all that.

On the other hand, Herr Scholz does not beat around the bush regarding his real priorities: Germany. Not Ukraine. Germany. In mid-October, as a direct answer to Ukraine’s so-called Victory Plan, the German chancellor left no doubt about his stance on NATO membership for Ukraine and Kyiv’s request for his long-range Taurus missiles for the defense of Ukraine:

“You already know Germany’s position on the issues involved. This will not change.”

“Our position is clear: We support Ukraine as strongly as possible.”

“At the same time, we are taking care that NATO does not become a party to the war so that this war doesn’t culminate in an even bigger catastrophe.”

Pretty clear talk. In Kyiv yesterday, Scholz repeated this.

So, we know at least that the bag did not contain a plan for delivering Taurus to Ukraine. But what could be in there?

Maybe the bag contained the €650 million in military aid that Scholz, on behalf of the German people, is giving Ukraine. Yesterday, Scholz once again stressed that Germany is “the strongest supporter of Ukraine in Europe.” As a Dane, I must point out that it is only true if you count euros. If you - more logically for a true comparison — look at Ukraine's per capita support, Germany is far behind the Danes and the Balts. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Denmark and the Baltic countries spend 2% of their GDP on supporting Ukraine - Germany spends 0.6%. So, there is much less for Ukraine in the average German’s bag. (France and Britain spend 0.5%, the U.S. 0.4% of its GDP on support to Ukraine).

At first sight, Kyiv seemed like a weird destination for Scholz, who recently received some flak from his Western colleagues and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after the German leader held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, ostensibly to discuss ways to end the war. The Ukrainian president stated angrily that Scholz's call to the Kremlin had opened a “Pandora’s box” and weakened Putin’s international isolation.

His critics say that the chancellor’s main goal in Kyiv was to campaign for the upcoming elections on Feb. 23 next year. These elections became necessary when Scholz’s government recently crashed, apparently over his insistence on continued financial support for Ukraine. In Kyiv, critics say, Scholz - who is trailing horribly in the polls - wanted to show himself as “a statesman.”

Meaning that maybe there was nothing more in Scholz’s bag than a spin doctor’s blueprint for his election campaign. And that a visit to Kyiv and some emotional photo ops with Zelensky and some Ukrainians fit perfectly. So, was that all you trained to Kyiv for, Olaf? To attempt “a BoJo” – a desperate foreign trip to a dangerous place, to look cool, to play the “international statesman,” a last attempt to win an election? Well, Olaf, it didn’t work for BoJo. (Having said that, these days Boris Johnson is making a killing on the lecture circuit, reportedly more than $1 million a year, and was paid $3 million for his memoirs, in which his trips to Kyiv feature prominently.)

On Monday, Olaf Scholz visited wounded Ukrainian soldiers in a hospital, and he also placed a candle in front of a memorial for fallen soldiers. Lots of photos ensued.

“I expressed my deep appreciation for their courage and bravery,” said Scholz of the soldiers, “the encounter with them and the personal dialogue were important to me, and I can expressly say that I won’t forget that.”

“I am saying this very clearly to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin today: We have staying power and will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Scholz said at a press conference sitting next to Zelensky.

None of this made Scholz change his mind on the Taurus missile or Ukrainian NATO membership. For generations, Germany has played a very low-key role internationally, and there is still a lot of unease in the country about taking on a larger, stronger international role. Consequently, Scholz makes a big thing of his “prudence“ as opposed to what he calls the “Russian roulette” of his opponent, Friedrich Merz, the Conservative party leader and the overwhelming favorite to become chancellor in February. “Merz wants to issue an ultimatum to the nuclear power, Russia,” Scholz says. “All I can say is: When it comes to war and peace, you don’t need an unpredictable opposition leader; you need a cool head.”

So, maybe that was what was in the bag, Olaf? Hot air. Hot election air?

(Olaf Scholz boarding the train home from Kyiv, December 2, 2024)

But we do know that next time a German chancellor comes visiting Kyiv, it will very likely not be Herr Scholz, but his rival Herr Merz, and his bag will very likely contain a permission slip for Ukraine to use the Taurus missiles.

It is virtually impossible to imagine Europe playing a leading role in Ukraine - taking on more responsibility if Donald Trump withdraws - without German leadership. But that is still a couple of months into the future. And at the rate that things are changing in and around Ukraine right now, and with Trump taking over the White House, only a fool tries to predict the future.

So, really, we still don’t know what the Germans have in the bag.