Ukraine Update: Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025

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Ukraine has showcased strength, resilience and hope amid the death and destruction of Russia’s war.

Russian airstrike on Zaporizhzhia kills 13, injures 113. A Russian airstrike on Wednesday targeted an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia, killing 13 and wounding 113. The bombs exploded among crowds, damaging buildings, vehicles, and public transport. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack. “There is nothing more cruel than launching aerial bombs on a city, knowing that ordinary civilians will suffer,” Zelensky said. “Russia must be put under pressure for its terror. The protection of lives in Ukraine must be supported.” Governor Ivan Fedorov declared a day of mourning and highlighted the use of guided bombs in densely populated areas. Emergency services reported extensive destruction, with ongoing aid for victims, including five saved by paramedics. Kyiv Independent Reuters RBC-Ukraine Associated Press RFE/RL Bloomberg

US will send another $500 million in weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. plans to send Ukraine $500 million in weapons from existing stockpiles to bolster Kyiv’s position before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, officials said. The announcement on Thursday will coincide with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s final Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, a 50-nation coalition supporting Ukraine. Austin emphasized maintaining momentum and international solidarity. The aid, funded through presidential drawdown authority, aims to deliver munitions by month’s end. The U.S. has provided $66.5 billion in military aid since Russia’s invasion, with less than $4 billion remaining, leaving decisions on future support to the incoming administration. Associated Press

Biden set to push new Russia sanctions before Trump era begins. President Joe Biden plans to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy this week, besides sending another $500 million in military aid for Ukraine, including air defense missiles and F-16 support equipment. Most promised U.S. weapons have been delivered, bolstering Kyiv’s munitions stockpiles. The U.S. is also monitoring North Korean involvement in Russia’s war and plans further sanctions on Chinese entities supporting Moscow. Biden aides are briefing Trump’s team on current measures against Russia. Reuters

Trump wants to end the war in 100 days, incoming peace envoy tells Fox News. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump aims to end Russia’s war against Ukraine within 100 days of his inauguration, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s choice for special Ukraine peace envoy, told Fox News on Wednesday. Kellogg emphasized Trump’s commitment to safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty while negotiating a resolution acceptable to both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. He criticized Joe Biden’s refusal to engage with Putin, labeling it a “mistake.” While avoiding specifics, Kellogg hinted at equitable terms and dismissed concerns that Trump would concede to Russia. A prior report suggested Trump might delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years in exchange for arms and peacekeepers. Kyiv Independent

NATO membership is the only credible security guarantee for Ukraine, Finnish foreign minister says. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtone said that NATO membership is “the only credible security guarantee” for Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression. Valtonen, in Kyiv on Wednesday as Finland assumed the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, emphasized the alliance’s collective defense clause. She cited Finland’s unexpected NATO accession in 2023 as evidence of changing dynamics, adding, “Three years ago nobody thought Finland would be joining NATO…so here we are, you never know.” Ukraine seeks NATO membership despite resistance from key allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that the absence of NATO membership and concrete security guarantees contributed to Russia’s decision to launch the full-scale invasion. “Putin realized no one would stand up for Ukraine. He thought he could destroy us, but the Ukrainian army proved him wrong,” Zelensky said. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russia Doesn’t Hold All the Cards in Ukraine, Pentagon’s Austin Says. Outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking from Ramstein, Germany, emphasized that Russia faces significant challenges despite perceived advantages in its war on Ukraine. “There’s a thought that Russia has the ultimate hand here…but it doesn’t completely dominate this equation,” he said Wednesday. He highlighted Russia’s reliance on Iran, North Korea, and substantial resources to sustain its territorial gains, noting, “Russia will have to invest a lot of land forces to hold it.” Austin defended President Joe Biden’s Ukraine strategy, underscoring its role in Ukraine’s survival and countering Russia’s influence globally, including limiting Moscow’s reach in Syria and Africa. Bloomberg

Macron and Starmer will discuss Ukraine as Trump looms. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host French President Emmanuel Macron at Chequers on Thursday to discuss Ukraine, artificial intelligence, economic growth, and migration. Both leaders have strongly supported Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s 2022 invasion and aim to maintain support as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war swiftly, prepares for office. Macron has proposed a post-war peacekeeping force for Ukraine. The meeting precedes key events, including a UK-European Union defense summit in February and France’s AI Action Summit. Starmer and Macron last met in November. Politico EU

Russia Map Shows Oil Hubs Hit in Dozens of Ukraine Drone Raids. Ukraine has launched over 80 drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and depots, including an attack this week on the Kristall facility near Engels air base, a key site for Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers. These strikes have disrupted Moscow’s oil exports and military logistics, with fires reported in at least 64 attacks. Analysts estimate repair costs for damaged refineries could reach tens of millions of dollars per site, compounded by sanctions limiting access to essential equipment. Ukraine aims to weaken Russia’s war effort by targeting fuel supply chains crucial for military operations. The strikes underscore Kyiv’s strategy to project strength ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Russian officials reported a state of emergency at Engels after the latest attack, which also killed two firefighters. The disruption to Russia’s energy infrastructure highlights the economic and logistical challenges Kyiv’s campaign is creating for Moscow as the war nears its fourth year. Newsweek New York Times Ukrainska Pravda Deutsche Welle CNN

Russian plant fire rages on, 24 hours after Ukrainian attack. A fire at an oil depot near a Russian air base in Engels, linked to a Ukrainian drone attack, has raged for over 24 hours, killing two firefighters. Engels, 730 kilometers southeast of Moscow, declared a state of emergency. The blaze, reportedly targeting a site serving nuclear-capable bombers, followed a mass drone strike. Social media footage showed heavy smoke billowing from the area. Reuters

Ukraine strikes Russian command post in Donetsk Oblast, military reports. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army in Russian-occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine reported on Wednesday. The facility was reportedly used to coordinate attacks on Ukrainian forces and civilians, particularly in Kurakhove, which Russia recently claimed to have captured. The General Staff emphasized minimizing civilian risks during the operation. Located 25 kilometers east of Donetsk, Khartsyzk has been under Russian control since 2014. The extent of the damage and weapon type remains undisclosed. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 19, injure 132 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 19 civilians and injured 132 in the past day, authorities reported on Thursday. An airstrike on Zaporizhzhia killed 13 and injured 113, with 59 hospitalized. Other casualties included four deaths in Kherson Oblast, two in Stepnohirsk, and injuries in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Russia launched 70 drones overnight; 46 were intercepted. Damaged infrastructure included homes, vehicles, and an industrial facility. Kyiv Independent

Russian airstrike against Kherson injures 6, damages kindergarten. Russian forces dropped guided aerial bombs on the city of Kherson on Jan. 9, injuring at least six people, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said. One bomb reportedly hit a house, destroying it. A kindergarten and a business were also reported as damaged. Kyiv Independent

Military deserter, his wife detained in Dnipro terror attack case. Ukrainian authorities arrested a 33-year-old AWOL soldier and his 25-year-old wife for allegedly producing explosives used in a Dec. 14 terrorist attack in Dnipro, which killed one and injured four. Recruited by Russian intelligence via Telegram, the pair built the device and observed the attack before going into hiding. Detained with incriminating evidence, they face terrorism charges and life imprisonment. Russia is accused of orchestrating such attacks to destabilize Ukraine during its full-scale invasion. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it has a new type of river drone to spy on and take out Russian boats. Ukraine has unveiled the Black Widow 2, a compact river drone designed by Kyiv-based Hard Cat to target Russian vessels on rivers like the Dnipro. The one-meter-long drone boasts a top speed of 25 mph, a range of 6.2 miles, and capabilities for reconnaissance, patrolling, and attacking small boats. Successfully tested in rear-area conditions, it is now undergoing combat trials with two Ukrainian brigades. Developed at the military’s request, the drone counters Russian motorboats used for supplies and troop rotations. Experts note its potential for defensive operations in narrow waterways and against tactical Russian assets in wetland regions. Business Insider

Britain is developing fast-attack drone boats for Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defense is developing fast, low-observable attack drone boats under Project COOKSON to support Ukraine. These modular vessels, designed for reuse, will feature high-explosive payloads with a range of 30–100 kilometers, hard-kill air defense systems, and endurance for up to 72 hours. They can operate autonomously in Global Navigation Satellite System-denied environments and aim to counter Russian assets in waterways. Production targets include 2–3 vessels per month. Industry insights from a Jan. 22 session will guide procurement, with initial systems expected by late 2025. The initiative bolsters the UK’s role in the Maritime Capability Coalition co-led with Norway. UK Defence Journal

Ukrainian maritime drone destroys Russian helicopters in Black Sea clash. Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels destroyed two Russian helicopters and damaged a third in the Black Sea, reportedly marking the first time an unmanned maritime drone destroyed an aircraft. Footage showed a Magura V5 drone firing a missile amid heavy fire, with officials identifying the weapon as an R-73 air-to-air missile in a tactic dubbed “SeeDragon.” The engagement highlights the growing prominence of innovative, locally developed weaponry in Ukraine and the broader global trend of unmanned surface vessels proving their effectiveness in modern warfare. Axios

Over 12,300 civilians killed since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the UN says. The United Nations reports over 12,300 verified civilian deaths in Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, including 650 children, though the tally is acknowledged as an undercount due to verification challenges. Civilian deaths spiked by 30% in late 2024, with 574 killed between September and November, largely from drones, missiles, and glide bombs. The U.N. documented 35 deaths in Kherson from video-piloted drones and highlighted severe civilian impacts in frontline areas. However, the report excludes casualties in Russia, citing limited access. Ukraine’s ambassador called Russia’s actions “calculated and cruel,” while Russia dismissed the report as biased. Reuters

Slovak government threatens Ukraine with withdrawal of EU membership support. Slovakia’s Russia-leaning government, led by Hlas-SD and Prime Minister Robert Fico, has criticized Ukraine for halting Russian gas transit, claiming economic losses and threatening to reconsider support for Ukraine’s European Union membership bid. Hlas-SD highlighted Slovakia’s aid to Ukraine but demanded “partner-like” actions from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Fico warned of cutting electricity exports to Ukraine and reducing refugee aid, following Kyiv’s refusal to extend the gas contract. Pro-EU protests erupted in Slovakia, while Poland and Czechia offered support to mitigate energy challenges. The gas dispute underscores growing tensions as Slovakia aligns more closely with Moscow. Euractiv

Zelensky, Moldova’s Sandu discuss Ukrainian coal to ease Transdniestria energy crisis. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Wednesday discussed using Ukrainian coal to alleviate Transdniestria’s energy crisis, which has caused blackouts and heating shortages. Zelensky blamed the crisis on “Russia’s attempt to manipulate energy resources” against Moldova’s pro-European government. Ukrainian coal could be used to keep a thermal plant operating that provides electricity for the separatist region and also accounts for most of the power needs in government-controlled areas of Moldova. Sandu emphasized finding joint solutions to prevent further humanitarian suffering. Both leaders highlighted their commitment to EU membership as a cornerstone of their policies. Reuters

U.S. Saw an Opportunity While It Pushed to Arm Ukraine. The United States built the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, uniting over 50 nations to arm Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion. Initially addressing Kyiv’s artillery shortages, the coalition provided $126 billion in military aid, including NATO-standard weapons. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin leveraged alliances with NATO members and non-NATO allies to reshape global arms networks. The group’s meetings highlighted Ukraine’s shift from Soviet-era arms to Western systems. With Trump’s incoming administration skeptical of support for Ukraine, the coalition’s future leadership remains uncertain. Washington’s efforts also encouraged Russia’s former clients to join NATO’s orbit, showcasing a new model for American power projection. New York Times

The Lloyd void: Ukraine group wrestles with future after Austin leaves. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, formed after Russia’s 2022 invasion, has met 25 times and overseen $126 billion in military aid transfers, half from the U.S. With Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stepping down, the group’s future is uncertain. Potential leaders, like the U.K. and Germany, have not committed. Subgroups focused on drones, air defense, and armor may continue independently. NATO officials emphasize the importance of U.S. leadership, with Adm. Rob Bauer stating, “The U.S. continues to be the leader in NATO.” The group’s potential disbandment would significantly undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Politico

Polish defense minister says the next Ramstein meeting may be its last. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that Thursday’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting at Ramstein Air Base may be the last in its current format. He suggested the format could change after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, given Trump’s differing approach to U.S. strategy in Ukraine. The meeting will focus on long-term defense needs for Ukraine, including air defense and artillery, while NATO considers assuming more responsibility for logistics and coordination amid shifting U.S. leadership. Kyiv Independent

Garry Kasparov: ‘You never hear Russian opposition actually say Ukraine must win.’ In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, Garry Kasparov sharply criticized the Russian opposition for failing to advocate for Ukraine’s victory, emphasizing, “You never hear them say Ukraine must win.” He dismissed claims that the war is solely Vadimir Putin’s, arguing, “It’s not just Putin; it’s a mentality.” Kasparov believes Russia’s transformation requires military defeat and dismantling its imperialist legacy: “The Ukrainian flag must fly over Sevastopol again.” Highlighting Western reluctance, he said, “The surest way to escalate is to show weakness.” Kasparov also called for aiding anti-war Russians to leave, fostering a “Russian Taiwan” as a foundation for a post-Putin future. Kyiv Independent

Putin’s Booming War Economy Poised for Bumpy Landing. Russia’s war-driven economic boom is faltering as inflation, high borrowing costs, and sanctions take their toll. Economist Oleg Vyugin noted, “A relatively good period… is over. High inflation eats away at all that seemingly short-lived success.” The central bank forecasts growth slowing sharply to 0.5% in 2025, down from 3.5%-4% in 2024, despite the government’s efforts to stabilize inflation. Businesses, including major firms like Severstal and Norilsk Nickel, are cutting investments, and sectors like agriculture face rising bankruptcy risks. Economist Sofya Donets predicted 2025 will be “a year of belt-tightening,” with constrained credit and slower growth ahead. Bloomberg

As Russian losses in Ukraine mount, Putin faces a ‘devastating’ demographic time bomb. Russia faces a worsening demographic crisis, exacerbated by its war on Ukraine, with experts warning the population could halve by 2100 from its current estimate of 146 million people. Harley Balzer, an emeritus professor at Georgetown University, highlights the war’s societal toll, including post-traumatic stress disorder, addiction, and violence among returning soldiers, creating an environment unconducive to population growth. Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, notes Russia’s “demographic straitjacket,” citing low life expectancy and declining birth rates, with the total fertility rate falling from 1.8 in 2015 to 1.4 by 2022. Despite Kremlin efforts, including promoting childbirth and restricting abortion, Russia’s population remains unsustainable, now worsened by over 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. Russia’s highest single-day losses, 2,200 casualties on December 19, underscore the war’s ongoing human cost. Experts argue the conflict impedes societal recovery, with Balzer questioning Russia’s viability as a country post-war. As Ukraine faces demographic challenges due to Russia’s war, experts describe the situation as a “race to the bottom.” Kyiv Independent

French-trained brigade had ‘systematic shortcomings,’ Ukraine’s top general reports to Zelensky. General Mykhailo Drapatyi reported to President Volodymyr Zelensky on systemic issues within Ukraine’s French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade, deployed near Pokrovsk. Drapatyi acknowledged leadership failures, recruitment mistakes, and inadequate training planning as key problems. He emphasized low efficiency and motivation among mid-level commanders as the biggest challenge. Solutions include recruiting experienced officers, providing additional training, offering a hotline for direct soldier feedback, and deploying psychologists for cohesion. While France fulfilled its training and arms commitments, an investigation revealed 1,700 AWOL cases in the brigade, undermining its intended role as a flagship international partnership project. Kyiv Independent

Kursk: What is Ukraine aiming for with its new advance? Ukraine’s advance into Russia’s Kursk region appears multifaceted, combining military and political motivations. While Kyiv remains silent, experts see the move as a calculated signal to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to underscore Ukraine’s importance and secure continued Western support. The offensive, involving up to three brigades, may aim to break out of encirclement as Ukrainian forces face mounting pressure in Kursk. Analysts also speculate it could disrupt Russian operations, serve as a bargaining chip for upcoming negotiations, or act as a diversion. Despite risks, experts argue the potential political and diplomatic gains outweigh setbacks on other fronts like Donetsk’s Pokrovsk. Deutsche Welle

Two Ukrainian paratroopers capture 14 Russian troops at once. Two Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th Air Assault Brigade captured 14 Russian soldiers in a daring operation. Supported by drone strikes and comrades’ fire cover, they approached a Russian dugout, threw grenades, and compelled the occupants to surrender. This success replenishes Ukraine’s prisoner exchange fund, which is vital for freeing soldiers from Russian captivity. RBC-Ukraine

Broker McGill offers property war reinsurance for Ukraine. Broker McGill and Partners has launched Ukraine’s first commercial property war risk reinsurance program since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Partnering with local ARX insurer, the program offers up to $50 million per policy, with Lloyd’s of London syndicates reinsurance. Coverage applies to properties over 100 kilometers from the front lines, using data from FortuneGuard to assess risks. McGill aims to address inequities in blanket exclusions, while other organizations back insurance for transit, healthcare, and agriculture in Ukraine. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Jan. 8. Ukrainian forces targeted Russia’s state-owned Kombinat Kristal oil storage facility near Engels, Saratov Oblast, overnight on Jan. 7-8, causing a large fire that disrupted logistics for the Engels-2 Air Base. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian 8th Combined Arms Army command post in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, used for coordinating operations in Kurakhove. Reports highlighted a Dec. 30 Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike in Kursk Oblast that killed servicemen from Russia’s 76th Airborne Division. Russian forces are increasingly deploying drones connected to fiber optic cables in Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, Toretsk, and near Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Vladimir Putin’s wobbly empire gives US a path to stifle Russia’s threats. Peter Doran argues that Vladimir Putin’s 25 years in power have left Russia weakened, with a crumbling economy and strained alliances. Putin’s reliance on oil revenue, military spending, and precarious partnerships, including with China, has created vulnerabilities. He highlights opportunities for the incoming Donald Trump administration to tighten sanctions, especially by reducing the oil price cap to $35 per barrel, cutting off vital cash flow for Russia’s war efforts. Doran emphasizes, “The United States cannot be expected to save Russia from Putin’s legacy of squandered national potential and self-inflicted decline.” New York Post

Opinion: Doing the math on Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine. Alexander J. Motyl critiques the Kremlin’s narrative of Russia’s unstoppable advances in Ukraine, labeling it as misleading and unsustainable. He highlights that Russia’s territorial gains are minimal—requiring decades to capture Ukraine at the current rate—while incurring catastrophic casualties. Motyl argues that despite immense losses, Ukraine’s resilience equates to a strategic draw or modest victory, exposing Russia’s vulnerabilities. He attributes Western analysts’ acceptance of Kremlin propaganda to ideological biases, political alliances, and resistance to revising outdated assumptions, concluding that facts and numbers debunk these distorted narratives. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine is determined but tired. William Courtney highlights Ukrainians’ resolve to resist Russian aggression despite fatigue from war. Conversations with key leaders revealed skepticism about negotiations or a ceasefire, as Ukraine prioritizes sovereignty and territorial integrity. Leaders voiced concerns over limited Western support, emphasizing the need for modern weaponry and a shift to a defensive strategy. Ukraine seeks a “just peace” while maintaining unity, democracy, and military strength. Any forced concessions would undermine international law and embolden further aggression. Defense News

Opinion: Russian Assets Are Europe’s Trump Card. Adrian Karatnycky argues that Europe should seize Russia’s $300 billion in frozen reserves to compensate for potential cuts in U.S. aid to Ukraine under President-elect Donald Trump. He highlights confiscation’s financial and political feasibility, citing its justification under international law and its potential to sustain Ukraine’s defense for years. Such action would send a powerful message to Moscow, deterring aggression and demonstrating Western resolve. Karatnycky emphasizes pairing this measure with easing restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities, allowing deep strikes into Russia, to pressure the Kremlin and support a diplomatic resolution safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty. Foreign Policy

Opinion: A User’s Guide to ‘Who Lost Ukraine?’ Stephen M. Walt explores the likely postwar blame debate over Russia’s war on Ukraine. He outlines nine arguments, including critiques of NATO expansion, Western failure to negotiate seriously with Russia, and inadequate support for Ukraine. He also examines claims that Ukraine’s strategic missteps or Western realpolitik contributed to the war’s challenges. Walt emphasizes that assigning blame may reflect political agendas rather than objective analysis but argues that understanding these perspectives is crucial for learning lessons and avoiding similar failures in the future. Foreign Policy