Viewing Putin as a legitimate politician rather than acknowledging him as a dangerous criminal compromises the integrity of global politics and leads to its degradation.
Now that Putin has denied speaking with Trump, the games begin. Does Trump think he can manipulate Putin and others by falsely reporting a fait-accompli? I feel like we're playing Russian Roulette --- in. the dark.
I think what this analysis is missing is the Putin perspective. It looks at what Trump and Zelensky may wish or accept, but there is a third party at this table. He may be a criminal and a terrorist, but he is ALSO a politician and a head of state, and whether we like it or not, what he wants and might be willing to accept is a necessary third piece of this puzzle (and possibly even the most influential piece). What Putin needs are two things. One is to appear strong. Two is to remove economic pressure from Russia. In Russian mentality, the first goal is best satisfied by a demonstration of the Russian expression loosely translated as “a man says, a man does.” In other words, the outcome of any settlement needs to look sufficiently like what Putin laid out his original goals to be (regardless of the fact that they were based on a total fabrication). These goals all hover around the claim that Russia requires a form of protection from the West’s military encroachment. Retention of Ukrainian “buffer” territory, the agreement to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and/or the agreement to limit the future size and composition of the Ukrainian military all satisfy this goal. Notably, and despite what Russia says in its public statements, none of these are truly non-negotiable. For example, despite the rhetoric, Putin would totally give back some Ukrainian territory if he could secure a guarantee of a limited Ukrainian military (Ukraine should never agree to this, but just to make the point that as long as the overall appearance of Russian strength is satisfied, none of these concessions are a strict must). The second of Putin’s objectives is equally important. Again, despite what is said publicly, Russia is severely hurt by Western sanctions. If these aren’t weakened or removed, Russia has a very difficult path to rebuilding its economy and its military. They would be completely beholden to China and that’s a very unpleasant position for Putin, whatever declarations of friendship they might parade around. Therefore, sanction removal is possibly the biggest card the West actually has to play here. This would be a reason for Putin to actually give back some Ukrainian territory. However, no one seems to be discussing this for some reason. To me though, if you take all of the above into consideration, a very possible deal looks something like the following. Russia keeps eastern portions of Ukrainian territory (basically the Donbas down to Mariupol). This accomplishes the “buffer zone” objective. Kursk is returned; Russia retains Crimea but gives up the occupied southern territories (Zaporizzia and Kherson areas), in exchange for a gradual weakening and ultimate removal of sanctions if peace is preserved over X years. Ukraine agrees to stay out of NATO. Obviously there is lots of variation possible here, but I think this kind of deal is a lot closer to achievable reality than the “freeze current lines” or “US gives up on Ukraine” outcomes that are commonly discussed. Those are certainly possible, but i see them more as the bookend options rather than something in the middle that might actually be borderline acceptable to all sides.
Viewing Putin as a legitimate politician rather than acknowledging him as a dangerous criminal compromises the integrity of global politics and leads to its degradation.
Now that Putin has denied speaking with Trump, the games begin. Does Trump think he can manipulate Putin and others by falsely reporting a fait-accompli? I feel like we're playing Russian Roulette --- in. the dark.
Idk-not sure what’s going to happen … it’s a crap shoot and Ukraine hangs in the balance. Praying for all of you!!
I think what this analysis is missing is the Putin perspective. It looks at what Trump and Zelensky may wish or accept, but there is a third party at this table. He may be a criminal and a terrorist, but he is ALSO a politician and a head of state, and whether we like it or not, what he wants and might be willing to accept is a necessary third piece of this puzzle (and possibly even the most influential piece). What Putin needs are two things. One is to appear strong. Two is to remove economic pressure from Russia. In Russian mentality, the first goal is best satisfied by a demonstration of the Russian expression loosely translated as “a man says, a man does.” In other words, the outcome of any settlement needs to look sufficiently like what Putin laid out his original goals to be (regardless of the fact that they were based on a total fabrication). These goals all hover around the claim that Russia requires a form of protection from the West’s military encroachment. Retention of Ukrainian “buffer” territory, the agreement to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and/or the agreement to limit the future size and composition of the Ukrainian military all satisfy this goal. Notably, and despite what Russia says in its public statements, none of these are truly non-negotiable. For example, despite the rhetoric, Putin would totally give back some Ukrainian territory if he could secure a guarantee of a limited Ukrainian military (Ukraine should never agree to this, but just to make the point that as long as the overall appearance of Russian strength is satisfied, none of these concessions are a strict must). The second of Putin’s objectives is equally important. Again, despite what is said publicly, Russia is severely hurt by Western sanctions. If these aren’t weakened or removed, Russia has a very difficult path to rebuilding its economy and its military. They would be completely beholden to China and that’s a very unpleasant position for Putin, whatever declarations of friendship they might parade around. Therefore, sanction removal is possibly the biggest card the West actually has to play here. This would be a reason for Putin to actually give back some Ukrainian territory. However, no one seems to be discussing this for some reason. To me though, if you take all of the above into consideration, a very possible deal looks something like the following. Russia keeps eastern portions of Ukrainian territory (basically the Donbas down to Mariupol). This accomplishes the “buffer zone” objective. Kursk is returned; Russia retains Crimea but gives up the occupied southern territories (Zaporizzia and Kherson areas), in exchange for a gradual weakening and ultimate removal of sanctions if peace is preserved over X years. Ukraine agrees to stay out of NATO. Obviously there is lots of variation possible here, but I think this kind of deal is a lot closer to achievable reality than the “freeze current lines” or “US gives up on Ukraine” outcomes that are commonly discussed. Those are certainly possible, but i see them more as the bookend options rather than something in the middle that might actually be borderline acceptable to all sides.