The German magazine Der Spiegel claims that Ukraine is now considering ceding land to Russia to end the war. Has Ukraine finally been forced into a more pragmatic yet sadly more realistic approach?
While it may be reality, the surrender of an inch of Ukrainian soil to war criminal Putin and his thugs is abhorrent. Rewarding Putin’s aggression sends a message that the world is paralyzed to deal with ruthless criminals like Putin. It does not bode well for other countries hoping to protect their sovereignty from invasive forces.
Putin needs to be run to ground and held account for his many crimes. The Russian people have proven incapable of participating in civilized society and continue to support a global cancer of evil. Shame on them.
The problem is what the orcs will do to any Ukrainians left behind.
And the location of the more-valuable-than-gold lithium deposits AND loss to sea access that such concessions would entail.
It is counterproductive Lee, stupid to be engaged in the Middle East yet again and abandoned those who are in an active hot war for nearly 3 years primarily alone against our traditional enemy!
That enemy at present is on the economic and demographic and international balance of trade and currency conversion rate and domestic economy/supply/infrastructure and military/domestic manufacturing skids and should be kept there until they pay reparations to Ukraine AND face justice at The Hague for their genocidal actions. Do not give up this opportunity to kick our enemy while he’s down!
For many years, it has been obvious that Russia is working to increase its influence around the Mediterranean, in Africa, Asia, South America. Hang onto Gibraltar lest a chokepoint be established there as has developed wrt Russian protectorate nations in the Middle East affecting shipping security and right of free passage. And don’t forget Turkey’s control over their nautical chokepoint.
This as well as blatantly interfering in American politics, which is against the parameters of diplomatic recognition – – just saying; think-tanks and higher education; publishing houses dedicated to Their point of view; cybersecurity breaches pretty much at will Any/Everywhere including but not limited to the FBI/White House/Stock Exchange, etc., oh, and in our election processes.
Ukraine has shown the world their earnest determination to be free. That is what we are supposed to be all about. How about we support the good guys for once?
Putin has made noises about the necessity of his keeping Ukraine's industrial and mining heartland, the Donbas - that's where the money is, after all - but still there is the assumption that Putin will never include the Crimea in any final settlement with Ukraine.
The Russians really do have to give up every inch of Ukraine to have peace, return all Ukrainian prisoners, especially children who were taken into Russia to be indoctrinated as Russians, and pay for the horrible damage done to Ukraine's cities, towns and settlements. In other words, Russia needs to make things right if there is to be some effort to create a lasting peace.
The longer Putin waits to end the war on whatever terms, the more of his military airports, armament storage areas, locomotives for their extensive rail system, major weapons of war,and gas and oil transfer facilities will be destroyed by Ukrainian UAVs. It's a waiting game and people are taking bets on how long it will be before the Russian military is forced to cave completely on its own and Putin dies or is forced from power.
It's clear that Russia is losing this war of expansion, and it should withdraw while it still has something of value left.
LadyHsitorian and yourself (Porter) have both made the case and covered all the points I would have made, i.e. it's not just land being traded it's the people on it and the ongoing rape, torture, murder and more stolen children that will ensue after "peace" etc etc. I'll just add my bit as someone who have lived here a decade (Ukrainian wife), been displaced twice, from Makiivka )now in the so-called DNR) in 2014 and Pokrovsk (bought a flat there to replace the one we lost in Makiivka. I am not on board with some kind of deal, my wife and I want our homes back, along with millions of other displaced Ukrainians (our home in Pokrovsk is not bombed yet thank God). But it seems the only way to a victory, might come in stages (as postulated by Sir James Sherr). Any chance of a clean victory was lost long ago, due to "escalation management". But maybe ruzzian society will collapse soon, and we just have to wear them out before we wear out here.
You cannot negotiate with Putin because he will never honour any agreement. You cannot cede any territory to Russia because it will be seen as a sign of weakness and they will return for more and regrouped. The only solution for the survival for Ukraine is to supply them with the means to finish the job and demonstrate to Putin he will not win.
Much of this article does not make sense snd seems to be unduly pessimistic or perhaps giving into Russian and far right pr. I saw this because of the increasing news about more and more derp strikes into Russia from Ukraine destroying military logistics , including massive ammunition stores, military airports , and oil refineries etc. That combined with the massive Russian losses on the front line and its inability to shift Ukraine out of Kursk all seem to point to the tide turning in Ukraines favour.
This is a very sobering perspectie ….but probably a correct one. There are basically 4 scenarios. I also give them historic parallel names. what do you think about them?
1 Trump - Republican Win (Medium probability): Saigon escape scenario: Ukraine needs to give in, disaster
2 Kamala Win - Business as usual - Ukraine with low resilience - Finnish Winter War scenario (Medium probability): the standard scenario described in the podcast, slow defeat of Ukraine
3 Kamala Win - evolutionary improvement - Ukraine higher resilience (Low probability): Ukraine gets more money, more recruits, more weapons: WW1 Allies victory scenario, Ukraine outlasts Russia - just one more year until the Russian stocks run out!
standard scenario of most more optimistic analysts now
→ with new North Korea troops now looks more unlikely
4 Kamala Win - General Hodges policy (low probability), Pearl Harbor Moment scenario: optimistic scenario, after the US elections massive supports comes through, f16 game changer
Pessimism: is all in line with the RUSI commentary
I agree that Ukraine having to concede territory even after such serious losses is not a welcome outcome, but an end to the fighting with Ukraine accepted into NATO as a first time exception to the longstanding rule about not accepting as members any state with an active border dispute is a fitting punishment for Putin - and may finally force Putin to abandon his ambitions for expansion in that direction. But afterwards will we want to retain Belarus as a buffer or prefer to secure full control of its territory?
While it may be reality, the surrender of an inch of Ukrainian soil to war criminal Putin and his thugs is abhorrent. Rewarding Putin’s aggression sends a message that the world is paralyzed to deal with ruthless criminals like Putin. It does not bode well for other countries hoping to protect their sovereignty from invasive forces.
Putin needs to be run to ground and held account for his many crimes. The Russian people have proven incapable of participating in civilized society and continue to support a global cancer of evil. Shame on them.
The problem is what the orcs will do to any Ukrainians left behind.
And the location of the more-valuable-than-gold lithium deposits AND loss to sea access that such concessions would entail.
It is counterproductive Lee, stupid to be engaged in the Middle East yet again and abandoned those who are in an active hot war for nearly 3 years primarily alone against our traditional enemy!
That enemy at present is on the economic and demographic and international balance of trade and currency conversion rate and domestic economy/supply/infrastructure and military/domestic manufacturing skids and should be kept there until they pay reparations to Ukraine AND face justice at The Hague for their genocidal actions. Do not give up this opportunity to kick our enemy while he’s down!
For many years, it has been obvious that Russia is working to increase its influence around the Mediterranean, in Africa, Asia, South America. Hang onto Gibraltar lest a chokepoint be established there as has developed wrt Russian protectorate nations in the Middle East affecting shipping security and right of free passage. And don’t forget Turkey’s control over their nautical chokepoint.
This as well as blatantly interfering in American politics, which is against the parameters of diplomatic recognition – – just saying; think-tanks and higher education; publishing houses dedicated to Their point of view; cybersecurity breaches pretty much at will Any/Everywhere including but not limited to the FBI/White House/Stock Exchange, etc., oh, and in our election processes.
Ukraine has shown the world their earnest determination to be free. That is what we are supposed to be all about. How about we support the good guys for once?
Putin has made noises about the necessity of his keeping Ukraine's industrial and mining heartland, the Donbas - that's where the money is, after all - but still there is the assumption that Putin will never include the Crimea in any final settlement with Ukraine.
The Russians really do have to give up every inch of Ukraine to have peace, return all Ukrainian prisoners, especially children who were taken into Russia to be indoctrinated as Russians, and pay for the horrible damage done to Ukraine's cities, towns and settlements. In other words, Russia needs to make things right if there is to be some effort to create a lasting peace.
The longer Putin waits to end the war on whatever terms, the more of his military airports, armament storage areas, locomotives for their extensive rail system, major weapons of war,and gas and oil transfer facilities will be destroyed by Ukrainian UAVs. It's a waiting game and people are taking bets on how long it will be before the Russian military is forced to cave completely on its own and Putin dies or is forced from power.
It's clear that Russia is losing this war of expansion, and it should withdraw while it still has something of value left.
LadyHsitorian and yourself (Porter) have both made the case and covered all the points I would have made, i.e. it's not just land being traded it's the people on it and the ongoing rape, torture, murder and more stolen children that will ensue after "peace" etc etc. I'll just add my bit as someone who have lived here a decade (Ukrainian wife), been displaced twice, from Makiivka )now in the so-called DNR) in 2014 and Pokrovsk (bought a flat there to replace the one we lost in Makiivka. I am not on board with some kind of deal, my wife and I want our homes back, along with millions of other displaced Ukrainians (our home in Pokrovsk is not bombed yet thank God). But it seems the only way to a victory, might come in stages (as postulated by Sir James Sherr). Any chance of a clean victory was lost long ago, due to "escalation management". But maybe ruzzian society will collapse soon, and we just have to wear them out before we wear out here.
Ukraine will pursue nuclear weapons. That's the answer.
They will use the Israel model. Publicly many nations will condemn it. Privately they will assist Ukraine.
You cannot negotiate with Putin because he will never honour any agreement. You cannot cede any territory to Russia because it will be seen as a sign of weakness and they will return for more and regrouped. The only solution for the survival for Ukraine is to supply them with the means to finish the job and demonstrate to Putin he will not win.
It’s all sustainability - sadly, there can only be so much loss before a leader has to re-think. Putin has the bigger pockets of souls to sacrifice.
It’s at this point you’ve got to think NATO should have been tougher from the start.
Just perverse loss of humans over old lines in the group.
Regards to all affected by it,
TE
Much of this article does not make sense snd seems to be unduly pessimistic or perhaps giving into Russian and far right pr. I saw this because of the increasing news about more and more derp strikes into Russia from Ukraine destroying military logistics , including massive ammunition stores, military airports , and oil refineries etc. That combined with the massive Russian losses on the front line and its inability to shift Ukraine out of Kursk all seem to point to the tide turning in Ukraines favour.
tried to summarize the perspectives here:
This is a very sobering perspectie ….but probably a correct one. There are basically 4 scenarios. I also give them historic parallel names. what do you think about them?
1 Trump - Republican Win (Medium probability): Saigon escape scenario: Ukraine needs to give in, disaster
2 Kamala Win - Business as usual - Ukraine with low resilience - Finnish Winter War scenario (Medium probability): the standard scenario described in the podcast, slow defeat of Ukraine
3 Kamala Win - evolutionary improvement - Ukraine higher resilience (Low probability): Ukraine gets more money, more recruits, more weapons: WW1 Allies victory scenario, Ukraine outlasts Russia - just one more year until the Russian stocks run out!
standard scenario of most more optimistic analysts now
→ with new North Korea troops now looks more unlikely
4 Kamala Win - General Hodges policy (low probability), Pearl Harbor Moment scenario: optimistic scenario, after the US elections massive supports comes through, f16 game changer
Pessimism: is all in line with the RUSI commentary
...I more or less agree in your scenarios/probabilities. Although, in a piece soon, I'm adding a fifth one. You won't like it.
As long as fascist Trumpler and his cadre of toxic, hateful or spineless suckups don’t end up in the Oval…
I agree that Ukraine having to concede territory even after such serious losses is not a welcome outcome, but an end to the fighting with Ukraine accepted into NATO as a first time exception to the longstanding rule about not accepting as members any state with an active border dispute is a fitting punishment for Putin - and may finally force Putin to abandon his ambitions for expansion in that direction. But afterwards will we want to retain Belarus as a buffer or prefer to secure full control of its territory?
Comes down to how many body bags you want to fill.