I appreciate the enormous amount of thought and time put into these ideas.
I would like to be wrong, but I think the amount of trust needed to get enough players on board would be difficult. At a bare minimum, in my mind, it would be the entirety of the G7 first, then more. Probably much more.
I don't like criticizing without offering a solution. Let's take many of the mechanisms mentioned by Oleksandra and create something that is a bit more foolproof.
"The West" isn't a good term.... but for lack of a better one... lets say The West and its allies need to build a logistical apparatus that stands ready to act if war is threatened. This apparatus would be a mixture of sanctions and conventional military might. It would go into effect and arrive anywhere in the world in 48-72 hours. Participants in this arrangement would train year round on the equipment. They would pay for it's upkeep.
Let's call the apparatus the Logistics Force. LF.
The LF would provide in 48 hours a mix of hard and soft power moves that would repel any aggressor. It would be built in such a way as to provide "instant" air dominance from a mix of SAMs, EW, and Gen 4+ fighters that participants already train on. It would provide, where necessary, littoral defenses. Including SSMs, mines, and SAMs. As well as other military equipment necessary. It would put financial and travel restrictions on any aggressor country for a period of 5-10 years, or until the aggression has stopped. Frozen and seized assets, deportations, and most importantly... secondary sanctions that go into place automatically. All of this will be put in place ahead of time. Banks must agree to it just like FINRA KYC/AML.
Basically, in 48-72 hours of a major breach of sovereignty a logistics sleeping monster would go into effect and deliver battlespace dominance. And the aggressor's money necessary to prosecute a war would be cut off globally.
Most important is that there MUST NOT be a vote to use it. Rather it is an agreed upon TRIGGER that sets the wheels in motion. No matter who a president is, no matter who needs more resources from the aggressor, this LF plan is triggered. It must be politics proof. A sort of improved "Article 5".
This is not foreign troops. Though smaller nations might work together. This is the logistics and materiel needed to quickly end a conflict before it starts.
Imagine if this was in place for Ukraine. They would be flying F-15s with Gen4 capabilities. Turkey, India, and China would not be allowed to work with Russia. The entire Russian Black Sea fleet would disappear in a month.
All of this would be agreed to ahead of time. Aggressors would know this. They would know going in that in short order the entire battlespace would be crowded with modern weapons and tactics. Their capital and markets would dry up near instantly.
We would need the support of the US, UK, Poland, Japan, South Korea, and NATO as an organization. The icing on the cake would be German, French, Italian, New Zealand, Philippines, Canadian support.
At the very least, it's a conversation that needs to be started.
Thank you for this excellent interview!
I appreciate the enormous amount of thought and time put into these ideas.
I would like to be wrong, but I think the amount of trust needed to get enough players on board would be difficult. At a bare minimum, in my mind, it would be the entirety of the G7 first, then more. Probably much more.
I don't like criticizing without offering a solution. Let's take many of the mechanisms mentioned by Oleksandra and create something that is a bit more foolproof.
"The West" isn't a good term.... but for lack of a better one... lets say The West and its allies need to build a logistical apparatus that stands ready to act if war is threatened. This apparatus would be a mixture of sanctions and conventional military might. It would go into effect and arrive anywhere in the world in 48-72 hours. Participants in this arrangement would train year round on the equipment. They would pay for it's upkeep.
Let's call the apparatus the Logistics Force. LF.
The LF would provide in 48 hours a mix of hard and soft power moves that would repel any aggressor. It would be built in such a way as to provide "instant" air dominance from a mix of SAMs, EW, and Gen 4+ fighters that participants already train on. It would provide, where necessary, littoral defenses. Including SSMs, mines, and SAMs. As well as other military equipment necessary. It would put financial and travel restrictions on any aggressor country for a period of 5-10 years, or until the aggression has stopped. Frozen and seized assets, deportations, and most importantly... secondary sanctions that go into place automatically. All of this will be put in place ahead of time. Banks must agree to it just like FINRA KYC/AML.
Basically, in 48-72 hours of a major breach of sovereignty a logistics sleeping monster would go into effect and deliver battlespace dominance. And the aggressor's money necessary to prosecute a war would be cut off globally.
Most important is that there MUST NOT be a vote to use it. Rather it is an agreed upon TRIGGER that sets the wheels in motion. No matter who a president is, no matter who needs more resources from the aggressor, this LF plan is triggered. It must be politics proof. A sort of improved "Article 5".
This is not foreign troops. Though smaller nations might work together. This is the logistics and materiel needed to quickly end a conflict before it starts.
Imagine if this was in place for Ukraine. They would be flying F-15s with Gen4 capabilities. Turkey, India, and China would not be allowed to work with Russia. The entire Russian Black Sea fleet would disappear in a month.
All of this would be agreed to ahead of time. Aggressors would know this. They would know going in that in short order the entire battlespace would be crowded with modern weapons and tactics. Their capital and markets would dry up near instantly.
We would need the support of the US, UK, Poland, Japan, South Korea, and NATO as an organization. The icing on the cake would be German, French, Italian, New Zealand, Philippines, Canadian support.
At the very least, it's a conversation that needs to be started.