At this month's Victor Pinchuk YES conference, a retired American general, Poland's foreign minister and his Ukrainian counterpart weighed in on Ukraine's manpower shortage.
The Ukraine is losing on all scores. Too bad we provoked the conflict. A good read on how the U.S. and NATO policies led to “crisis, war and the risk of nuclear conflict “. “How the West Brought War to an Ukraine “ , Benjamin Abelow. A concise examination of how U.S. and western policy as regards to NATO and Russia since the fall of the Iron Curtain has led us into the present conflict. Do yourself a favor guys and read it. Thanks.
I think there needs to be more conversation about how to actually make people more comfortable with the draft. Yes, drafts absolutely work better when there are still lots of volunteers, for a good reason. But Ukraine is past that point, and with the current policy men of draft age are essentially prisoners in their own homes. This is neither right nor effective. There are a number of things that can be done to change this. I am not an expert, but things like guaranteeing non-front line roles for 6 months for people meeting certain conditions (children, etc.), guaranteed longer lengths of higher quality training (possibly through partnerships with Western counties), guaranteeing maximum terms of service, etc. I think could make a substantial difference. Ukraine’s potential defenders need to be treated like true citizens whose lives and potential sacrifice are truly valued - not like war meat that is hunted down at every opportunity and thrown in the trench. There should be more discussion of this rather than repeated lamentations that no one wants to serve.
I detest the optics of throwing people into vans and cutting off communication with their families. These are Russian tactics. If you are going to just act like Russia in the end... what's all this for anyway?
The biggest problem is the TCC. This is old soviet style mobilization. Sure, yeah... there was no registration for "selective service" like in the USA. But you can still do a lottery rather than vans of thugs.
Also, there has to be a PR campaign around enlisting that details the benefits of joining. Payment, post service benefits like healthcare and a GI Bill type investment in your future, and honor among your peers.
Most of all, you have to let the young men and women pick their branch of service. Sure, most will try to go into the navy and air force. But all you have to do is build drone companies in every service. Ukraine can't get enough pilots and manufacturers/technicians.
Let's be clear... trench warfare isn't going to be how Ukraine wins. Ukraine's only chance to win is to force a mass retreat and abandonment of the front by Russia. Trench hopping will never accomplish this.
How does Ukraine do this? Destruction and continued denial of Russian lines of communication. AKA... EW, intel, drones, and long/medium range fires.
Ukraine needs to recruit for this. And I mean recruit. Not mobilize.
Finally... the truth is Ukraine has more men mobilized now than it can train and equip. Yes, UA can give them all helmets and guns. But what about Bradleys and Strikers? Javelins and AT4s? EW? Drones? And the training to use it all?
When someone says Ukraine has a mobilization problem they are mis-prioritizing Ukraine's hierarchy of needs.
Thanks for the information. Regarding the question of reducing stipends to Ukrainians in our country we are doing it now in Norway. Not automatic acceptable as refugees for the whole country, and reduced benefits while here. But we also try to make it easier to work here, which would earn you more. So it will not necessarily mean a flood of returnees. I think this is something we will have to live with. Returning people who doesnt want to fight goes against so many ideals and values we hold dear. (And one has to Wonder what quality of troops you would get. Ukraine needs good soldiers.) We might however try more positive reinforcement, like supporting voluntary return financially. This could be done for women as well, there is a need for a work force as well.
Those that refuse to fight should be denied benefits suck as civil service jobs entrance to certain educational institutions and not allowed to be firefighters or police officers etc. Also if they are unwilling to fight then why do they get to share in the benefits. My relatives are here and I as a foreign disabled veteran still find time to volunteer and also to drive supplies to refugees and to the military. My friends are at the front they are military, border guards and police officers. I help them as I can and we send supplies and money to our legitimate refugee volunteers. All must participate and the rich oligarchs and deputies of the government need to be held accountable including those that pilfer the public coffers and divert aid.
The draft that is being discussed is indeed good and defensible because it is the natural and very necessary reaction to a major unprovoked invasion by the Russian Empire to bring about an obscene land grab that may have no end until Putin's genocide is complete.
What would it take to get across to young men that all that they know, their towns, their families, their relatives, schools, hospitals are being targeted by a psychopath who wants to be a mix of Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, all at your expense and that of everyone you've ever known?
Our opinions on the psychopath-in-power do not differ. Our opinions on whether draft is the best way to deal with that do. I'd say that NATO should just ignore "red lines" discourse and send its own professional soldiers, rather than push out Ukrainian refugees because they happen to be male and young.
(And, just in case, it's not personal: I have never held a Ukrainian passport so wouldn't be subject to the draft anyway.)
I think your suggested solution would involve all of NATO, including the United States, in a much larger war with Putin. If, for instance, a brigade of German, French or British troops arrived in Ukraine ready to fight, Putin would have a solid case that he's at war with NATO and I believe he'd have his troops blow the two major nuclear reactors that he currently controls in Ukraine. That would be Chernobyl many times over and send two large clouds of radioactivity west to Europe.
An aside - since my mother was born in Periaslav (my grandmother brought her here at age 3) I would probably qualify for a Ukrainian passport, but at this age, with mobility problems that make it difficult for me to last through a round-trip to visit my son and daughter-in-law in Seattle, there's no way I'd ever make it to Ukraine. Yet if I were in my late 20's I know I'd feel the urge to have my boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Where does a cloud of radioactivity go depends on factors like the wind, which are thankfully not in Putin's control yet. But also, no. He declares that he's at war with NATO after each escalation, and each time it ends in air-puffing and little else.
I believe when Chernobyl melted down, the wind was from the east and blew the radioactive dust into Europe. I figure they have a good handle on seasonal winds, but hope it never comes to their using their control of the two reactors in this way.
The Ukraine is losing on all scores. Too bad we provoked the conflict. A good read on how the U.S. and NATO policies led to “crisis, war and the risk of nuclear conflict “. “How the West Brought War to an Ukraine “ , Benjamin Abelow. A concise examination of how U.S. and western policy as regards to NATO and Russia since the fall of the Iron Curtain has led us into the present conflict. Do yourself a favor guys and read it. Thanks.
Of course, the West did NOT provoke this conflict. Only one man did, the KGB crook in the Kremlin.
Nevertheless, I'll certainly have a look at the book you recommend, tx.
I think there needs to be more conversation about how to actually make people more comfortable with the draft. Yes, drafts absolutely work better when there are still lots of volunteers, for a good reason. But Ukraine is past that point, and with the current policy men of draft age are essentially prisoners in their own homes. This is neither right nor effective. There are a number of things that can be done to change this. I am not an expert, but things like guaranteeing non-front line roles for 6 months for people meeting certain conditions (children, etc.), guaranteed longer lengths of higher quality training (possibly through partnerships with Western counties), guaranteeing maximum terms of service, etc. I think could make a substantial difference. Ukraine’s potential defenders need to be treated like true citizens whose lives and potential sacrifice are truly valued - not like war meat that is hunted down at every opportunity and thrown in the trench. There should be more discussion of this rather than repeated lamentations that no one wants to serve.
I detest the optics of throwing people into vans and cutting off communication with their families. These are Russian tactics. If you are going to just act like Russia in the end... what's all this for anyway?
The biggest problem is the TCC. This is old soviet style mobilization. Sure, yeah... there was no registration for "selective service" like in the USA. But you can still do a lottery rather than vans of thugs.
Also, there has to be a PR campaign around enlisting that details the benefits of joining. Payment, post service benefits like healthcare and a GI Bill type investment in your future, and honor among your peers.
Most of all, you have to let the young men and women pick their branch of service. Sure, most will try to go into the navy and air force. But all you have to do is build drone companies in every service. Ukraine can't get enough pilots and manufacturers/technicians.
Let's be clear... trench warfare isn't going to be how Ukraine wins. Ukraine's only chance to win is to force a mass retreat and abandonment of the front by Russia. Trench hopping will never accomplish this.
How does Ukraine do this? Destruction and continued denial of Russian lines of communication. AKA... EW, intel, drones, and long/medium range fires.
Ukraine needs to recruit for this. And I mean recruit. Not mobilize.
Finally... the truth is Ukraine has more men mobilized now than it can train and equip. Yes, UA can give them all helmets and guns. But what about Bradleys and Strikers? Javelins and AT4s? EW? Drones? And the training to use it all?
When someone says Ukraine has a mobilization problem they are mis-prioritizing Ukraine's hierarchy of needs.
Thanks for the information. Regarding the question of reducing stipends to Ukrainians in our country we are doing it now in Norway. Not automatic acceptable as refugees for the whole country, and reduced benefits while here. But we also try to make it easier to work here, which would earn you more. So it will not necessarily mean a flood of returnees. I think this is something we will have to live with. Returning people who doesnt want to fight goes against so many ideals and values we hold dear. (And one has to Wonder what quality of troops you would get. Ukraine needs good soldiers.) We might however try more positive reinforcement, like supporting voluntary return financially. This could be done for women as well, there is a need for a work force as well.
Those that refuse to fight should be denied benefits suck as civil service jobs entrance to certain educational institutions and not allowed to be firefighters or police officers etc. Also if they are unwilling to fight then why do they get to share in the benefits. My relatives are here and I as a foreign disabled veteran still find time to volunteer and also to drive supplies to refugees and to the military. My friends are at the front they are military, border guards and police officers. I help them as I can and we send supplies and money to our legitimate refugee volunteers. All must participate and the rich oligarchs and deputies of the government need to be held accountable including those that pilfer the public coffers and divert aid.
I mean, many such people are there with families. It's not like draft is something good and defensible to begin with.
The draft that is being discussed is indeed good and defensible because it is the natural and very necessary reaction to a major unprovoked invasion by the Russian Empire to bring about an obscene land grab that may have no end until Putin's genocide is complete.
What would it take to get across to young men that all that they know, their towns, their families, their relatives, schools, hospitals are being targeted by a psychopath who wants to be a mix of Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, all at your expense and that of everyone you've ever known?
Our opinions on the psychopath-in-power do not differ. Our opinions on whether draft is the best way to deal with that do. I'd say that NATO should just ignore "red lines" discourse and send its own professional soldiers, rather than push out Ukrainian refugees because they happen to be male and young.
(And, just in case, it's not personal: I have never held a Ukrainian passport so wouldn't be subject to the draft anyway.)
I think your suggested solution would involve all of NATO, including the United States, in a much larger war with Putin. If, for instance, a brigade of German, French or British troops arrived in Ukraine ready to fight, Putin would have a solid case that he's at war with NATO and I believe he'd have his troops blow the two major nuclear reactors that he currently controls in Ukraine. That would be Chernobyl many times over and send two large clouds of radioactivity west to Europe.
An aside - since my mother was born in Periaslav (my grandmother brought her here at age 3) I would probably qualify for a Ukrainian passport, but at this age, with mobility problems that make it difficult for me to last through a round-trip to visit my son and daughter-in-law in Seattle, there's no way I'd ever make it to Ukraine. Yet if I were in my late 20's I know I'd feel the urge to have my boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Where does a cloud of radioactivity go depends on factors like the wind, which are thankfully not in Putin's control yet. But also, no. He declares that he's at war with NATO after each escalation, and each time it ends in air-puffing and little else.
I believe when Chernobyl melted down, the wind was from the east and blew the radioactive dust into Europe. I figure they have a good handle on seasonal winds, but hope it never comes to their using their control of the two reactors in this way.