Seconds after President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his victory plan, the U.S. shot it down. Ukraine’s most important allies are ignoring it. Geopolitics trump Ukraine's arguments and pain.
Ukraine's corrupt past is slowly eroding but the most salient fact is the absolutely fantasy of Biden and his advisers that allowing deeper invasions Russia or long distance weapons without restriction would provoke Putin's use of nuclear weapons. This tired old flimsy excuse is no more valid than it was during the many times Putin insinuated the use of nuclear weapons. Thus, we are NOT being given the truth by Biden, who clearly bears responsibility for allowing Russia to continue the w ar on its own terms without fear of any American obstacles. American has sown indecisiveness and
insufficient concern for the death of innocent civilians and a violation of international law regarding the invasion of a sovereign nation. What the real reason is we dont know; it remains hidden. But what isnt hidden is the fact that Biden could stop the killing and bombing in a minute and therefore save thousands of lives. His refusal to do this indicates a moral weakness, confusion and lack of any firm principles...a president who could cut the killing in a minute if he had a ny moral fibre.
His refusal shows flabby thinking and poor advice, and less concern for victims.
I don't fault Joe Biden's Cold Warrior reluctance to poke the supposedly Big Bear because of Putin's continually threatening the use of nuclear weapons. That's ingrained in him and it's a valid viewpoint. But he should look at the many times and ways in which Ukraine has poked the bear hard - a significant response invasion of Kursk, blowing up planes on the ground at remote Russian airbases and blowing up factories that produce weapons and major stockpiles of weapons and armor, all deep inside Russia - and come into the present in his mindset.
Ukraine has been slow-walking the Russian troops in Donbas, giving up a yard or two a day in exchange for well over 1,000 dead Russians battling for those few yards. In this manner, UKR is trying to make further advances into already-destroyed Donbas villages too painful for Putin. Only problem with that, according to a really good report on the subject in today's NY Times, is that most of the dead are from impoverished and distant "republics" (oblasts, actually) that Moscovites don't give a crap about.
Really, Putin and his public relations control people puff up any losses, which have been huge, to the heroic soldiers who bravely gave their lives in a patriotic battle against "Nazis". My hope is that Zelenskyy is coming around to a realization that Putin will fight to the last Tatar, the last Buryat, the last Tuvan and that a new strategy is called for.
My guess is that with or without Biden's approval in the final months of his Presidency, Ukraine will go ahead and use the ATACM's and other long-distance weapons (F-16's?) deep inside Russia because it will become an absolute necessity to do so.
18 year olds are the smallest group in Ukrainian society because of low fertility 18 years ago.. its quite typical for all Eastern European countries actually... at the other end, 40year olds are the most numerous group.. Ukraine cannot afford losing its young men, because it would destroy the country in the long run. thats why there wont be mobilization of 18 year olds...
Michael, I agree with most of your arguments but do you really think that including internal issues like the fight against corruption ( which is already ongoing as you know) should be part of a plan presented to allies? Wouldn’t they rightly say : well you should do this anyway, this is none of our business? Or do you really think that „Volodymir“ isn’t aware of these internal problems ? It is the tone of your advice I dislike. In German there is a saying that „Ratschläge sind auch Schläge“ literally „advice is also beating up“. And your advice to „Volodymir“ sounds like an adult speaking to a child or the American superpower towards his courageous but a bit stupid ally paid for fighting at the front. Please reserve this tone towards governments that deserve it - like the German Olaf .
y 'tone' as you put it, is the tone of a long time friend of Ukraine, warning my friend Volodymyr that his victory plan is not working, nobody in the West is listening/convinced. Personally, I wish the situation was different, but 🤷🏻
Re corruption, I'm simply warnibg/predicting that unless this is cleaned up, politicians in the West who do not want to support Ukraine (as much) will be using that as an argument. And, sadly, they may have a point....
Zelenskyy is well-aware of the emphasis that the Western nations have put on years and years of major corruption in Ukraine as if Zelenskyy hasn't done anything about it. But he has. He's quite well-aware of the importance placed by Western donors on the elimination of corruption in Ukraine and even has a minister-level office in his administration that is focused on getting rid of corruption. If you've followed the Ukrainian and European press on Ukrainian corruption, you'll know that it's a continue battle that Zelenskyy is fighting hard to win, all without criticizing his donor countries - like the U.S. - for our/their endemic and obvious corruption, witness major corruption in our own government.
I wish I could agree that it is well-known that Zelensky has been doing anything much about corruption. Ukraine has not improved in, for example TI ratings since 2019, and recently a spate of bad bad corruption cases in and around the ministry of defence has been revealed. Frankly, I'm surprised that this has not received more attention amongst the donors of billions and billions of taxpayers' money.
I also am sort of annoyed that some people in donor nations helping Ukraine figure that when Zelenskyy and his people discover corruption, fire the people involved and throw them in jail, this is 'proof' that UKR is still the 'same, old corrupt Ukraine".
But it isn't. Major strides have been made in wiping out corruption, major or minor, because Zelenskyy and his guys are very well-aware that this 'old, corrupt' viewpoint might stop Ukraine from ever getting into the EU or NATO.
The problem is that Ukraine has to fight on two fronts: against Putin's Russia and against post-Soviet internal corruption. It is not the West's problem. You are correct in your assessment of the situation. But the West is afraid of the collapse of russia. I'm waiting for black swans...
I hate it but I think I pretty much agree with all that you say. It makes me feel grubby and insincere but yeah, you've pretty much nailed it on every point. What a dreadful, horror-filled clusterfuck.
Firstly the opinion of the US Ambassador is worthless. He may well be gone in months and discarded on the pile of sideline commentators who incessantly natter about Ukraine and do nothing. Secondly, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is the first point. It is a poke in Putin’s eye and it needs to be in the headlines of the Moscow daily rag every morning.
Russians are truly a scourge on the world stage. They have never ever contributed to the well being of humanity. A constant reminder that the world is against them until they remove Putin and his thugs must be made. Thirdly, the target of the war is not victory over Russia but rather the removal of Putin and his trial in The Hague. After all who in the hell wants Russia.
Once Putin is gone, Russians need to rethink how they want to engage the rest of the world because what they have been doing so far has simply permitted a criminal organization led by Putin to drive their country into the ground. Putin is and should be until he is gone the primary target. The rest is window dressing.
I disagree about the nukes. You are right about the narrative, it has to change. Waiting for the west to help is (NATO invite, freedom to attack Russia) is just slow suicide. Ukraine has to save itself. It will do that by conscripting everyone from 18 to 60. It will do that by openly pursuing nuclear weapons. That is the only way Ukraine can survive against a nuclear armed Russia.
I mean, my surnamesake's plan is rather obvious: "be a realist, demand the impossible". He won't get NATO membership, but the very fact of its presence in the plan — the hope is — will strengthen support for the other parts of the plan. Whether it would work out is a different question, but, well, he follows the script he chose.
How is Ukraine supposed to recruit soldiers when the Frontline is outgunned and steadily if slowly retreating? This while the leaders of Ukraine's patrons are all signaling they are cutting.
Telling Ukraine to "get their house in order first" is detached from the reality.
I can't address all the issues you raise. You are right that UKR needs to increase conscription dramatically. But you elide the reality that UKR lacks the funding to properly equip and arm their current force. How do you attract people to a cause that is so badly resourced? I am not close to the scene, perhaps your opinion is that the younger men will respond. This theory doesn't match my view of human nature.
I'm sure you've read the rogue's piece. His more sympathetic view of Zelensky's effort is closer to my thinking. I'm not being dismissive of your very thoughtful tough love.
You are correct, this piece is mainly meant as tough love, I am certainly not pretending to have all the solutions. I do make a few recommendations in the piece, though. And I do think that the focus on the not-happening-NATO- membership at this point is turning counter-productive to some extent.
Yes you hit many nails squarely on the head. The need to convince industrialists of the financial opportunities a free Ukraine offers, particularly in the defense industry is paramount. Perhaps Ukraine could also concentrate more on convincing the citizens of the west and USA in particular about the need to support them, they are after all voters and politicians listen to voters, I'm reminded of the campaign that Britain embarked on in the USA during the early years of WW2 to convince the public of the need to support it. It seems that in the age of social media there's a real need for them to counter what the russians are doing there and this is something that can be done cheaply with no risk to those involved. It's also important that military failings, a fact even in successful campaigns, are addressed and learned from, there has certainly been a reluctance on this and it's not helpful. The way high command is operating needs looking at an honest discussion has to happen, the many grumblings from below are obviously not all baseless, any soviet style leadership or corruption has no place in a modern army.
Overall, i would say, you Westerners dont know what is coming your way... Ukraine was a test putin set up for you... it was the "very easy exam" of your willingness to fight for your freedom and live style and you HORRIBLY FAILED... Which means, now putin thinks you will fail harder exams as well.... so buckle up.. get ready for Iran attacking Saudis as "response" for Israel's retaliation, even blocking the Hormuz strait with naval mines... that alone will skyrocket the oil price and cause inflation you never experienced in your life... and at that moment, China will join in in their invasion of Taiwan.. because you wont be able to respond to two naval crises at once... and then Kim will launch his invasion of South Korea and putin will join in and invade Baltics... WHAT WILL YOU DO THEN??? putin is betting you will crumble. Trump if elected will come begging on his knees... Germany's Scholz as well... then he will get everything he wanted and more... and US prestige will be gone... your economy in trash (EU is USA's largest trade partner, with EU now bowing to putin, your economy will crash as well)
and all that, just because you did not listen that annoying Zelensky.. who was doing all the fighting for you... so you wouldnt have to send your troops into war... as somebody wise once said (you know who) - You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.
Ukraine's corrupt past is slowly eroding but the most salient fact is the absolutely fantasy of Biden and his advisers that allowing deeper invasions Russia or long distance weapons without restriction would provoke Putin's use of nuclear weapons. This tired old flimsy excuse is no more valid than it was during the many times Putin insinuated the use of nuclear weapons. Thus, we are NOT being given the truth by Biden, who clearly bears responsibility for allowing Russia to continue the w ar on its own terms without fear of any American obstacles. American has sown indecisiveness and
insufficient concern for the death of innocent civilians and a violation of international law regarding the invasion of a sovereign nation. What the real reason is we dont know; it remains hidden. But what isnt hidden is the fact that Biden could stop the killing and bombing in a minute and therefore save thousands of lives. His refusal to do this indicates a moral weakness, confusion and lack of any firm principles...a president who could cut the killing in a minute if he had a ny moral fibre.
His refusal shows flabby thinking and poor advice, and less concern for victims.
I don't fault Joe Biden's Cold Warrior reluctance to poke the supposedly Big Bear because of Putin's continually threatening the use of nuclear weapons. That's ingrained in him and it's a valid viewpoint. But he should look at the many times and ways in which Ukraine has poked the bear hard - a significant response invasion of Kursk, blowing up planes on the ground at remote Russian airbases and blowing up factories that produce weapons and major stockpiles of weapons and armor, all deep inside Russia - and come into the present in his mindset.
Ukraine has been slow-walking the Russian troops in Donbas, giving up a yard or two a day in exchange for well over 1,000 dead Russians battling for those few yards. In this manner, UKR is trying to make further advances into already-destroyed Donbas villages too painful for Putin. Only problem with that, according to a really good report on the subject in today's NY Times, is that most of the dead are from impoverished and distant "republics" (oblasts, actually) that Moscovites don't give a crap about.
Really, Putin and his public relations control people puff up any losses, which have been huge, to the heroic soldiers who bravely gave their lives in a patriotic battle against "Nazis". My hope is that Zelenskyy is coming around to a realization that Putin will fight to the last Tatar, the last Buryat, the last Tuvan and that a new strategy is called for.
My guess is that with or without Biden's approval in the final months of his Presidency, Ukraine will go ahead and use the ATACM's and other long-distance weapons (F-16's?) deep inside Russia because it will become an absolute necessity to do so.
Thank you, and yes, what a .... as you say.
18 year olds are the smallest group in Ukrainian society because of low fertility 18 years ago.. its quite typical for all Eastern European countries actually... at the other end, 40year olds are the most numerous group.. Ukraine cannot afford losing its young men, because it would destroy the country in the long run. thats why there wont be mobilization of 18 year olds...
Brilliantly stated! You have to start drafting 18-year-olds, and there need to be many more active women soldiers.
This is a boatload of info. Although I have no info
not already known or any special insight into these
matters, I’m pretty sure nothing will change as far
as the U.S. government is concerned until the
election is over and settled. I do know republicans
have already filed numerous lawsuits around election law and so far they have lost all of them but
one or two.
Thanks for the in-depth and frank analysis. By the way, it’s “to or for whomever wins in November.” Not to or for whoever…
Michael, I agree with most of your arguments but do you really think that including internal issues like the fight against corruption ( which is already ongoing as you know) should be part of a plan presented to allies? Wouldn’t they rightly say : well you should do this anyway, this is none of our business? Or do you really think that „Volodymir“ isn’t aware of these internal problems ? It is the tone of your advice I dislike. In German there is a saying that „Ratschläge sind auch Schläge“ literally „advice is also beating up“. And your advice to „Volodymir“ sounds like an adult speaking to a child or the American superpower towards his courageous but a bit stupid ally paid for fighting at the front. Please reserve this tone towards governments that deserve it - like the German Olaf .
Thanks for your comments.
y 'tone' as you put it, is the tone of a long time friend of Ukraine, warning my friend Volodymyr that his victory plan is not working, nobody in the West is listening/convinced. Personally, I wish the situation was different, but 🤷🏻
Re corruption, I'm simply warnibg/predicting that unless this is cleaned up, politicians in the West who do not want to support Ukraine (as much) will be using that as an argument. And, sadly, they may have a point....
Zelenskyy is well-aware of the emphasis that the Western nations have put on years and years of major corruption in Ukraine as if Zelenskyy hasn't done anything about it. But he has. He's quite well-aware of the importance placed by Western donors on the elimination of corruption in Ukraine and even has a minister-level office in his administration that is focused on getting rid of corruption. If you've followed the Ukrainian and European press on Ukrainian corruption, you'll know that it's a continue battle that Zelenskyy is fighting hard to win, all without criticizing his donor countries - like the U.S. - for our/their endemic and obvious corruption, witness major corruption in our own government.
I wish I could agree that it is well-known that Zelensky has been doing anything much about corruption. Ukraine has not improved in, for example TI ratings since 2019, and recently a spate of bad bad corruption cases in and around the ministry of defence has been revealed. Frankly, I'm surprised that this has not received more attention amongst the donors of billions and billions of taxpayers' money.
I also am sort of annoyed that some people in donor nations helping Ukraine figure that when Zelenskyy and his people discover corruption, fire the people involved and throw them in jail, this is 'proof' that UKR is still the 'same, old corrupt Ukraine".
But it isn't. Major strides have been made in wiping out corruption, major or minor, because Zelenskyy and his guys are very well-aware that this 'old, corrupt' viewpoint might stop Ukraine from ever getting into the EU or NATO.
The problem is that Ukraine has to fight on two fronts: against Putin's Russia and against post-Soviet internal corruption. It is not the West's problem. You are correct in your assessment of the situation. But the West is afraid of the collapse of russia. I'm waiting for black swans...
True, sadly true.
I hate it but I think I pretty much agree with all that you say. It makes me feel grubby and insincere but yeah, you've pretty much nailed it on every point. What a dreadful, horror-filled clusterfuck.
Such a complicated mess! I hope all allies will work to get it straightened out. Too many have died.
Firstly the opinion of the US Ambassador is worthless. He may well be gone in months and discarded on the pile of sideline commentators who incessantly natter about Ukraine and do nothing. Secondly, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is the first point. It is a poke in Putin’s eye and it needs to be in the headlines of the Moscow daily rag every morning.
Russians are truly a scourge on the world stage. They have never ever contributed to the well being of humanity. A constant reminder that the world is against them until they remove Putin and his thugs must be made. Thirdly, the target of the war is not victory over Russia but rather the removal of Putin and his trial in The Hague. After all who in the hell wants Russia.
Once Putin is gone, Russians need to rethink how they want to engage the rest of the world because what they have been doing so far has simply permitted a criminal organization led by Putin to drive their country into the ground. Putin is and should be until he is gone the primary target. The rest is window dressing.
I disagree about the nukes. You are right about the narrative, it has to change. Waiting for the west to help is (NATO invite, freedom to attack Russia) is just slow suicide. Ukraine has to save itself. It will do that by conscripting everyone from 18 to 60. It will do that by openly pursuing nuclear weapons. That is the only way Ukraine can survive against a nuclear armed Russia.
I mean, my surnamesake's plan is rather obvious: "be a realist, demand the impossible". He won't get NATO membership, but the very fact of its presence in the plan — the hope is — will strengthen support for the other parts of the plan. Whether it would work out is a different question, but, well, he follows the script he chose.
....hmmmm, as I say, I think that he needs a better script.
How is Ukraine supposed to recruit soldiers when the Frontline is outgunned and steadily if slowly retreating? This while the leaders of Ukraine's patrons are all signaling they are cutting.
Telling Ukraine to "get their house in order first" is detached from the reality.
There are some very concrete suggestions and criticisms in the piece.
I can't address all the issues you raise. You are right that UKR needs to increase conscription dramatically. But you elide the reality that UKR lacks the funding to properly equip and arm their current force. How do you attract people to a cause that is so badly resourced? I am not close to the scene, perhaps your opinion is that the younger men will respond. This theory doesn't match my view of human nature.
I'm sure you've read the rogue's piece. His more sympathetic view of Zelensky's effort is closer to my thinking. I'm not being dismissive of your very thoughtful tough love.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150312216
You are correct, this piece is mainly meant as tough love, I am certainly not pretending to have all the solutions. I do make a few recommendations in the piece, though. And I do think that the focus on the not-happening-NATO- membership at this point is turning counter-productive to some extent.
Yes you hit many nails squarely on the head. The need to convince industrialists of the financial opportunities a free Ukraine offers, particularly in the defense industry is paramount. Perhaps Ukraine could also concentrate more on convincing the citizens of the west and USA in particular about the need to support them, they are after all voters and politicians listen to voters, I'm reminded of the campaign that Britain embarked on in the USA during the early years of WW2 to convince the public of the need to support it. It seems that in the age of social media there's a real need for them to counter what the russians are doing there and this is something that can be done cheaply with no risk to those involved. It's also important that military failings, a fact even in successful campaigns, are addressed and learned from, there has certainly been a reluctance on this and it's not helpful. The way high command is operating needs looking at an honest discussion has to happen, the many grumblings from below are obviously not all baseless, any soviet style leadership or corruption has no place in a modern army.
Overall, i would say, you Westerners dont know what is coming your way... Ukraine was a test putin set up for you... it was the "very easy exam" of your willingness to fight for your freedom and live style and you HORRIBLY FAILED... Which means, now putin thinks you will fail harder exams as well.... so buckle up.. get ready for Iran attacking Saudis as "response" for Israel's retaliation, even blocking the Hormuz strait with naval mines... that alone will skyrocket the oil price and cause inflation you never experienced in your life... and at that moment, China will join in in their invasion of Taiwan.. because you wont be able to respond to two naval crises at once... and then Kim will launch his invasion of South Korea and putin will join in and invade Baltics... WHAT WILL YOU DO THEN??? putin is betting you will crumble. Trump if elected will come begging on his knees... Germany's Scholz as well... then he will get everything he wanted and more... and US prestige will be gone... your economy in trash (EU is USA's largest trade partner, with EU now bowing to putin, your economy will crash as well)
and all that, just because you did not listen that annoying Zelensky.. who was doing all the fighting for you... so you wouldnt have to send your troops into war... as somebody wise once said (you know who) - You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.