Yalta European Strategy conference prods a slow-moving West to help Ukraine win
This is Brian Bonner's article for The Cipher Brief on the 20th annual YES conference in Kyiv on September 13-14.
Ukrainian junior sergeant Hanna Vasyk wowed the crowd at the Yalta European Strategy conference with her pleas for urgent help to Ukraineβs fighters. The link to Brian Bonnerβs story in The Cipher Brief is here, and videos and photos from the event can be found here and on the Victor Pinchuk Foundationβs YouTube channel.
Ukraine Conference Urges World to Catch Up to βFrontline Timeβ
EXCLUSIVE REPORTING βΒ Itβs become the premier conference on the war in Ukraine, and this year, it had the feel of a political or even religious rally β as participants cheered the warβs heroes and chastised nations for not doing enough to ensure a Ukrainian over Russia.Β Β
Ukrainian soldiers and commanders, international bankers, and top U.S. and European officials were among the speakers at the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference, which was staged over the past several days by the Ukrainian billionaire Victor Pinchuk.Β
Among the challenges for the event and its pro-Ukraine participants, many of the people who needed convincing were not there.Β Β Β
βWeβre mostly Westerners, very few Asian (representatives), almost no Latin American, no African at all,β said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the French economist and former director of the International Monetary Fund.Β βWe have to talk to those people, too. If we donβt talk to them, others will,β
Outside the West, many countries of the so-called Global South remain indifferent to Ukraineβs pleas for solidarity against an imperialistic invader. Other nations, primarily China, North Korea, and Iran, are actively helping fuel Russiaβs war by supplying weapons, dual-use technology, or encouragingΒ robust trade with Moscow. Even within the West, support for Ukraine is weak in some nationsβnotably Hungary, Austria, and Slovakiaβthree European Union members who still buy Russian oil and gas. Hungaryβs pro-Russian autocratic leader, Victor Orban, has actively obstructed Ukraineβs drive to join the European Union and NATO.Β
But much of the talk at the YES conference involved preaching to the converted, with delegates trying to persuade one another β Ukraineβs strongest allies, already convinced of the cause β to do more to arm and finance Ukraine as Russian troops advance in the east and Russian bombs pummel Ukraineβs energy infrastructure with winter approaching.β―Β
Messages from the frontlinesΒ
Perhaps the conferenceβs most powerful moments came from UkrainianΒ soldiers who had fought recently on the frontlines of the war.β―Β
The raw urgency of their messages outshone such headline speakers as President Volodymyr Zelensky, ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, ex-Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, and β appearing via video links β U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, ex-Google CEO and chairman Eric Schmidt, and former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.Β
A new star might have been born in junior sergeant Hanna Vasyk, a combat medic who appeared on the final panel Saturday night with other Ukrainian soldiers.Β
Vasyk said the international security structure has proven incapable of preventing or stopping wars, and for all the warnings that stronger NATO support might provoke a wider war, she argued that World War III was already underway, in the form of a conflict between democracies and autocracies.Β
βUkraine is probably the only one country ready to fight for this,β Vasyk said. βWhen we see the world is observing and not doing that much, it is rather accepting this. (This conference) looks more like a rhetorical art competition. Now the speed of decision-making is the only thing that matters.βΒ
Vasyk said an army colleague had attended the conference with hopes of hearing a reassuring message before returning to the frontline near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, where fighting is especially fierce.Β Β
βIβm afraid he heard no good news,β she said. βIf the democracies cannot be faster in decision-making than the autocracies, then we have to admit that our methods cannot pass the reality check.Β
βTime is passing by. We are ending. We are dying quite fast,β Vasyk said. βWhat is the future? I would say: you decide. We decided for ourselves. We decided to fight.β Referring to Russian aggression, she said that βevil has to be somehow put back in the cage, and the virus has to be put back in the jar.βΒ
The author Timothy Garton Ash, who has chronicled Eastern Europe for decades, echoed the soldiersβ messages. He said that the outcome of Russiaβs war would decide the continentβs future, adding that βweβre not doing very wellβ in the third year of the conflict, despite Europe and America having spent more than $200 billion in military and financial aid since 2022, with commitments of another $100 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.β―Β
Paraphrasing another soldier, Garton Ash said, βThereβs frontline time, which is very fast, thereβs time in headquarters, which is a bit slower, and then thereβs the time in the West. We have to adjust our watches to βfrontline timeβ and get much faster about giving that support that will bring the victory that is a pre-condition to peace.βΒ
Strauss-Kahn said Western aid hasnβt matched the rhetoric of politicians who often say that βthe future of democracy is at stakeβ in Ukraine, citing his native France as one of those nations that βtalk a lot and do little.β He warned that the costs for democracies will be much higher if Ukraine loses, and that the war has exposed glaring weaknesses in Western militaries and their ability to deter conflict.β―Β
Sullivan: GiveΒ Ukraine what it needs to βwinβΒ
Sullivan, the national security adviser, interviewed via video link by author and CNN host Fareed Zakaria, said the Biden administration plans to spend its last four months in office trying to ensure that Ukraine has everything it needs to βwin this war.β He said the administration is putting together a new and substantial package that will include additional air defense systems as well as more money to defend Ukraineβs energy infrastructure, including its nuclear power plants, from Russian attacks. But he conceded that Zelensky was right to say that βweβve got to do more, and weβve got to do better.βΒ
For Sullivan and other U.S. officials, the Ukraine-related topic of the week involved the latest pleas that the WestΒ liftΒ restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russia using American-supplied ATACMS and other Western weapons. Sullivan argued that concern over the restrictions wasΒ overblown; considering that the ATACMS have a range of only 300 kilometers β not far enough to reach many Russian air bases β Sullivan said that lifting the restrictions would not be decisive. He also said that the U.S. balances its response to Kremlin threats, paying serious attention but not to the point of being paralyzed by them.Β
His comments on the issue didnβt sit well with the YES conference crowd, including Zelensky, who will meet President Joe Biden next week on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. Among other things, Zelensky will be seeking U.S. backing for what he has called a βvictory planβ for Ukraine.Β
βWe need a comprehensive strategy for success in this war, and that is what President Zelensky says he is bringing. President Biden is eager for that conversation,β Sullivan said. βWe have got to do everything in our power to put Ukraine in a position to win this war, to emerge as a proud, free, independent country rooted in the West. Weβre going to do our damndest to make that happen. And weβre going to do so working closely with the allies and partners who have supported Ukraine.βΒ
Sullivan blasted peace plans floated by former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Regarding Trumpβs oft-repeated claim that he would end the war in a day if re-elected, Sullivan said: βAnyone who steps forward and says they can solve the Ukraine war in one day from the outside, you really have to ask whose side are they going to be solving it on?ββ―β―Β
As for Vanceβs statements, which have included suggestions that Ukraine surrender the 18 percent of its territory that Russia now occupies, and renounce its desire to join NATO,Β Sullivan said an imposed peace plan is βnot just or sustainable,β especially one that βruns across fundamental principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity and freedom.βΒ
Zelensky: Donβt give in to Putinβs βmadnessβ
Having made near-daily pleas to the West for more than two and a half years now β with mixed results,Β Zelensky himself gave the conference what sounded like a reality check on the war. Β
βWe are now in the third year of this full-scale war,β the Ukrainian leader said. βAnd after so much killing and destruction in Ukraine, after so many Russian war crimes, after so many terrorist strikes, Putin can still afford to destroy life in Ukraine as he pleases, can buy and produce missiles, bombs, and artillery, can even afford to issue ultimatums to the world. And he expects the world to give in to his madness. It is the third year of the war, and Putin still believes that it is he to whom concessions must be made. Why is that?βΒ
This was Victor Pinchukβs message, too. Pinchuk is an engineer and businessman who has parlayed his wealth into philanthropy and the annual YES event, which has become a kind of Davos conference for Ukraine. Β
Speaking at this yearβs event in front of a backdrop of photos of slain Ukrainian soldiers, Pinchuk said of the fallen soldiers, βThey donβt need silence. They need that we talk very loudly to the world about Ukraine so that the world supports Ukraine more to defeat the terrorists. The majority of the leaders in the West understand that if Ukraine loses, it is bad and dangerous for all. But there is a huge gap between intellectual understanding and action.β
Then he made a case that many Ukrainians have, for nearly three years now.
βThe West must see this as a partnership with Ukrainians,β Pinchuk said. βIn this partnership, the West doesnβt give lives. Only Ukrainians give lives. But then at least give weapons as much as necessary and as quickly as you physically can without any restrictions or limitations and, of course, see Ukrainian lives as equally valuable as Western lives.βΒ
We have to defeat the orange one! Freedom in Europe depends on it. Anyone who thinks Putin will stop without gobbling up the other Eastern European countries is insane. We also must get serious about letting Ukraine defend itself.
Every time we (UK, etc.) hold out on tanks, jets, missiles, funding, it makes me ashamed. This is existential.